{"id":99107,"date":"2024-12-24T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-12-24T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/uae\/cbuae-maintains-2024-growth-forecast-dials-back-2025-growth-expectations-on-extension-of-oil-supply-cuts\/"},"modified":"2024-12-24T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2024-12-24T00:00:00","slug":"cbuae-maintains-2024-growth-forecast-dials-back-2025-growth-expectations-on-extension-of-oil-supply-cuts","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/uae\/2024\/12\/24\/cbuae-maintains-2024-growth-forecast-dials-back-2025-growth-expectations-on-extension-of-oil-supply-cuts\/","title":{"rendered":"CBUAE maintains 2024 growth forecast, dials back 2025 growth expectations on extension of oil supply cuts"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Central Bank of the UAE (CBUAE) maintained its gr<\/strong>owth outlook for 2024 at <\/strong>4%<\/strong> on the back of strong performance in the tourism, transportation, financial and ins. services, and construction and real estate sectors, according to its Quarterly Economic Review (pdf)<\/a>, unchanged from its expectations in September<\/a>. Current levels of oil production are expected to \u201cpartially moderate\u201d overall growth for the year.<\/p>\n

The central bank dialed back its forecast for growth in 2025 to 4.5%<\/strong>, compared to its 6% projection in September, on the back of Opec+\u2019s decision to extend production cuts<\/a> into 1Q 2025. It also projected growth to accelerate to 5.5% in 2026 due to the base effects of hydrocarbon GDP.<\/p>\n

The central bank also revised downwards its forecast for non-oil sector growth to 4.9% this year<\/strong>, down from its earlier 5.2% projection, and next year\u2019s forecast to 5%, compared to its previous 5.3% forecast. It expects \u201crobust but slightly lower\u201d sector growth from 2026 to 2028, amounting to 4.8% in 2026, 4.6% in 2027, and 4.5% in 2028.<\/p>\n

The <\/strong>oil<\/strong> sector is predicted to grow by 1.3% in 2024<\/strong>, up from the previous 0.7% projection, with a 3.2% increase in gas and non-oil fuels and a 0.6% decline in oil output. It also downgraded its forecast for 2025 to 2.9%, compared to its previous 7.7% projection \u2014 though it sees the sector rebounding to 7.6% growth the following year, 5.5% growth in 2027, and 4.2% growth in 2028.<\/p>\n

The CBUAE lowered its inflation forecast for 2024 to 1.8%<\/strong>, down from its previous projections of 2.2% in September. It expects inflation to come in at 2% next year, driven by non-tradeable components of the consumer basket, while partially offset by moderating energy prices. <\/p>\n

How the CBUAE\u2019s expectations compare:<\/strong> The World Bank expects<\/a> the UAE\u2019s growth to come in at 3.3% in 2024, and 4.1% in 2025 and 2026. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The central bank dialed back its forecast for GDP and non-oil GDP growth in 2025<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":99108,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1556],"tags":[157,19,7,20,285],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-99107","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-central-bank-of-the-uae","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam-uae","tag-gdp","tag-inflation","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"bea04561-e5ff-4c66-9900-456002e90887","order":"4","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2024\/9\/1532.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"CBUAE 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