{"id":98749,"date":"2024-12-12T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-12-12T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/uae\/a-us-trade-war-could-force-the-ecb-to-bring-rates-back-down-to-emergency-levels\/"},"modified":"2024-12-12T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2024-12-12T00:00:00","slug":"a-us-trade-war-could-force-the-ecb-to-bring-rates-back-down-to-emergency-levels","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/uae\/2024\/12\/12\/a-us-trade-war-could-force-the-ecb-to-bring-rates-back-down-to-emergency-levels\/","title":{"rendered":"A US trade war could force the ECB to bring rates back down to emergency levels"},"content":{"rendered":"

The European Central Bank (ECB) could move to slash interest rates to \u201cemergency levels\u201d<\/strong> to mitigate <\/strong>the impact of a US-led trade war<\/strong>, the Financial Times<\/a> reports. These potential cuts would come just two years after the ECB ended eight years of negative rates aimed at combating post-pandemic inflation.<\/p>\n

The trade war in a nutshell: <\/strong>Donald Trump\u2019s \u201cAmerica First\u201d trade policies are shaking up global markets. Trump floated a 60% tariff<\/a> on Chinese goods \u2014 and later, promised an additional 10% tariff \u2014 and a 10% tariff on imports from other countries, and promised separate tariffs<\/a> on Canadian and Mexican goods. <\/p>\n

The EUR\u2019s not loving this:<\/strong> Since late September, the EUR has dropped more than 5%, now trading around USD 1.06. Investors are already pricing in potential ECB moves, with swaps markets predicting the deposit rate could fall to 1.75% from 3.25%. If things get worse, Pimco\u2019s chief investment officer for global fixed income Andrew Balls expects even steeper cuts, warning of a dive into \u201cemergency levels of policy rates.\u201d<\/p>\n

Across the Channel:<\/strong> The UK isn\u2019t immune to trade war effects. Investors anticipate the Bank of England will slash rates by three-quarters of a point by the end of 2025, bringing interest rates to 4%. <\/p>\n

US financial moderation isn't completely off the table:<\/strong> Trump\u2019s nomination of hedge fund manager Scott Bessent as Treasury secretary could signal a shift toward more measured economic policies. Bessent has advocated for gradual implementation of policy changes, which has eased some market concerns. This perception of moderation has contributed to a slight retreat in the USD from its post-election high.<\/p>\n

MEANWHILE- A positive <\/strong>US inflation report<\/a><\/strong> showing no significant movement is the latest economic data to indicate a rate cut <\/strong>from the Federal Reserve is likely when it meets next week, Reuters<\/a> reports. <\/p>\n

\n

MARKETS THIS MORNING- <\/p>\n

Asian markets are mostly in the green<\/strong>, with Japan\u2019s Nikkei, South Korea\u2019s Kospi, and Hong Kong\u2019s Hang Seng all up, tracking a rally on Wall Street that saw the Nasdaq close at a record high. Futures, however, slipped slightly following the news.<\/p>\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

ADX<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

9,271<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.2% (YTD: -3.2%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

DFM<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

4,795<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.03% (YTD: +18.1%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Nasdaq Dubai UAE20<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

3,877<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.4% (YTD: +0.9%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

USD : AED<\/strong> CBUAE<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Buy 3.67<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Sell 3.67<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

EIBOR<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

4.6% o\/n<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

4.3% 1 yr<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

TASI<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

12,149<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.4% (YTD: +1.8%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

EGX30<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

30,739<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.4% (YTD: +23.5%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

S&P 500<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

6,084<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.8% (YTD: +27.6%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

FTSE 100<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

8,302<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.3% (YTD: +7.4%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Euro Stoxx 50<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

4,959<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.2% (YTD: +9.7%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Brent crude<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 73.52<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+1.8%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Natural gas (Nymex)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 3.35<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.8%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Gold<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 2,753.70<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+1.3%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

BTC<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 101,784.30<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+5.1% (YTD: +138.8%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n

THE CLOSING BELL-<\/strong><\/p>\n

The ADX rose 0.2% yesterday<\/strong> on turnover of AED 941.9 mn. The index is down 3.2% YTD.<\/p>\n

In the green: <\/strong>Sharjah Cement and Industrial Development (+8.0%), Umm Al Qaiwain General Investment (+4.1%) and Aram Group (+3.6%).<\/p>\n

In the red: <\/strong>United Arab Bank (-2.3%), Agility Global (-2.2%) and Abu Dhabi Ship Building (-2.0%). <\/p>\n

Over on the DFM<\/strong>, the index closed up 0.3% on turnover of AED 521.6 mn. Meanwhile, Nasdaq Dubai rose 0.4%.<\/p>\n

\n

CORPORATE ACTIONS- <\/p>\n

Chimera S&P UAE and Chimera FTSE ADX will be distribu<\/strong>ting dividends to <\/strong>shareholders on 10 January 2025<\/strong>, with Chimera S&P UAE offering a dividend at a rate of AED 0.082, according to an ADX disclosure (pdf)<\/a>, and Chimera FTSE ADX offering it at a rate of AED 0.006 per unit, according to a separate disclosure (pdf<\/a>).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The ECB\u2019s deposit rate could fall to 1.75%<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":98750,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1553],"tags":[1125,7,2006,48,331,50],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-98749","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-planet-finance","tag-donald-trump","tag-enterpriseam-uae","tag-european-central-bank-ecb","tag-financial-markets","tag-interest-rates","tag-planet-finance","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"7d79f6e1-d9a7-4514-8e8e-3dff6fc9669f","order":"10","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2024\/12\/1122.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"A US trade war could force the ECB to bring rates back down to emergency levels","related_issue":[98731],"teaser":"The ECB\u2019s deposit rate could fall to 1.75%","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2024\/12\/.b83f6a8c-15e5-4e86-80f8-c6ad88967a80.mp3"},"yoast_head":"\nA US trade war could force the ECB to bring rates back down to emergency levels - 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