{"id":97753,"date":"2024-11-11T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-11-11T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/uae\/ems-remain-vulnerable-to-the-sway-of-us-economic-policies-even-as-momentum-for-de-dollarizing-the-world-economy-grows\/"},"modified":"2024-11-11T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2024-11-11T00:00:00","slug":"ems-remain-vulnerable-to-the-sway-of-us-economic-policies-even-as-momentum-for-de-dollarizing-the-world-economy-grows","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/uae\/2024\/11\/11\/ems-remain-vulnerable-to-the-sway-of-us-economic-policies-even-as-momentum-for-de-dollarizing-the-world-economy-grows\/","title":{"rendered":"EMs remain vulnerable to the sway of US economic policies, even as momentum for de-dollarizing the world economy grows"},"content":{"rendered":"

EMs at a crossroads: <\/strong>As another Donald Trump presidency looms, Bloomberg Economics<\/a> sees emerging market economies (EMs) as having some cause for optimism \u2014 as well as significant causes for concern. While EM interest rates and growth prospects may not be as tightly linked to developments in the US as they once were, financial vulnerabilities and as-of-yet unrealized chances for coordination could hamper EM attempts to adjust to a new global economic normal.<\/p>\n

In some ways, EMs\u2019 independence from the US\u2019 economic sphere has never been greater:<\/strong> Bloomberg\u2019s research outfit points out that EMs\u2019 rate moves are beginning to break away from the US Federal Reserve\u2019s easing and tightening cycles, with several EMs lowering rates before the Fed did. Some countries have moved in the opposite direction of the Fed, with Brazil and Russia hiking rates shortly after the Fed\u2019s initial <\/span>50 bps cut in September<\/a> \u2014 suggesting that at least some EMs\u2019 fates are beginning to decouple somewhat from the US economic outlook.<\/span><\/p>\n

But US economic policy still has an oversized impact on EMs \u2014 especially following <\/strong>Trump set to soon take up the Oval Office: <\/strong>Egypt, along with Argentina and South Africa are pointed to as EMs that stand out as being particularly vulnerable to building debt burdens on the back of higher global rates pushed up by a forecasted uptick in inflation in the states. The new Republican president\u2019s talk of hiking tariffs could also have an outsized impact on certain countries with export industries that target the US.<\/p>\n

So far, Brics is yet to live up to its promise of de-dollarizing the world economy: <\/strong>Brics has yet to capitalize on its potential to coordinate policies and boost trade across its member economies, Bloomberg Economics writes. While the bloc has continued to grow in economic weight, it has struggled to reduce its reliance on the USD and has failed to find a mechanism to settle trade between members in alternative currencies \u2014 a key condition for decoupling EM growth from US policy.<\/p>\n

MARKETS THIS MORNING-<\/p>\n

Asian markets are starting the day in the red<\/strong>, as the markets react to inflation data for China that came in lower than forecast, putting into question the country\u2019s economic recovery. Leading the pack in the red was Hong Kong\u2019s Hang Seng that was down 2.4% at the time of writing, followed by Korea\u2019s Kospi at -0.9%, Japan\u2019s Nikkei at -0.2%, and China\u2019s Shanghai index at -0.1%<\/p>\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

ADX<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

9,449<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.2% (YTD: -1.3%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

DFM<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

4,640<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.1% (YTD: +14.3%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Nasdaq Dubai UAE20<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

3,877<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.3% (YTD: +0.9%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

USD : AED<\/strong> CBUAE<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Buy 3.67<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Sell 3.67<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

EIBOR<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

4.6% o\/n<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

4.4% 1 yr<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

TASI<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

12,103<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.2% (YTD: +1.1%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

EGX30 <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

31,394<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.4% (YTD: +26.1%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

S&P 500<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

5,996<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.4% (YTD: +25.7%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

FTSE 100<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

8,072<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.8% (YTD: +4.4%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Euro Stoxx 50<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

4,803<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-1.0% (YTD: +6.2%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Brent crude<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 73.87<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-2.3%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Natural gas <\/strong>(Nymex)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 2.67<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.9%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Gold<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 2,695<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.4%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

BTC<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 80,327.90<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+5.0% (YTD: +88.9%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n

THE CLOSING BELL-<\/strong><\/p>\n

The DFM fell 0.1% last Friday <\/strong>on turnover of AED 600 mn. The index is up 14.3% YTD.<\/p>\n

In the green: <\/strong>International Financial Advisors (+14.8%), National Cement Company (+14.7%) and National International Holding Company (+9.4%).<\/p>\n

In the red: <\/strong>Commercial Bank of Dubai (-4.0%), Mashreq Bank (-2.0%) and National Central Cooling Company (-1.9%). <\/p>\n

Over on the ADX<\/strong>, the index fell 0.2% on turnover of AED 1.0 bn. Meanwhile, Nasdaq Dubai closed up 0.3%.<\/p>\n

CORPORATE ACTIONS-<\/p>\n

DFM-listed supermarket chain Spinneys distributed AED 102.6 mn in interim dividen<\/strong>ds in 3Q 2024<\/strong>, according to its earnings release<\/a>(pdf)<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

US economic policy still has an oversized impact on EMs \u2014 especially following Trump set to soon take up the Oval Office<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":97754,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1553],"tags":[663,225,7,330,48,50],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-97753","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-planet-finance","tag-brics","tag-emerging-markets","tag-enterpriseam-uae","tag-federal-reserve","tag-financial-markets","tag-planet-finance","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"0f01db75-2d33-4d5f-8918-3c887cd2201d","order":"13","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2024\/11\/868.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"Emerging 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