{"id":93621,"date":"2024-07-08T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-07-08T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/uae\/the-sp-500-is-on-a-tear-and-a-rate-cut-could-fuel-its-run-are-us-megacaps-overvalued\/"},"modified":"2024-07-08T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2024-07-08T00:00:00","slug":"the-sp-500-is-on-a-tear-and-a-rate-cut-could-fuel-its-run-are-us-megacaps-overvalued","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/uae\/2024\/07\/08\/the-sp-500-is-on-a-tear-and-a-rate-cut-could-fuel-its-run-are-us-megacaps-overvalued\/","title":{"rendered":"The S&P 500 is on a tear, and a rate cut could fuel its run. Are US megacaps overvalued?"},"content":{"rendered":"

The S&P 500 remains on a tear<\/strong>, unbothered by drama surrounding the US elections: It has posted gains in nine of the last 11 weeks, Bloomberg<\/a> notes, including 2% last week as a steady<\/a>slowdown<\/a>in the labor market<\/a> boosted expectations the US Federal Reserve could start to cut interest rates as early as September. <\/p>\n

By the numbers: <\/strong>The S&P 500 was up 0.54% on Friday to close at 5,567, while the Nasdaq Composite edged up 0.90% to 18,352.76. Both indexes ended the week at record highs after labor data released on Friday showed US unemployment up slightly at 4.1% \u2014 its highest November 2021.<\/span><\/p>\n

Cooler US jobs data could prompt the Fed to start trimming interest rates in the fall<\/strong>, Reuters<\/a> reported. \u201cThis report puts the Fed in a comfortable spot,\u201d said Peter Cardillo, a chief market economist at institutional brokerage firm Spartan Capital Securities. \u201cIf this continues next month, with no increases in hourly wages, then I think we'll see a rate cut in September and another one in December.\u201d<\/p>\n

Remember: <\/strong>A rate cut will almost-inevitably see investors allocate more capital to equities. <\/p>\n

But it may be time to moderate your expectations for US equities in the coming <\/strong>decade. <\/strong>While valuations are admittedly bad tools to use when trying to time the market, Bloomberg still notes that that the S&P 500 is trading at 26x earnings \u2014 higher than on any single election day as far back as 1990. That suggests \u201cthe elevated state of equities may be reason to lower expectations for their performance under whoever wins the election in November,\u201d it writes. <\/p>\n

A decade of \u201cMeh\u201d in the making? <\/strong>\u201cToday\u2019s lofty valuations for US megacaps suggests significant underperformance over the coming decade, and because they make up such a dominant share, returns for the overall US market are also likely to be pretty muted,\u201d Richard Bernstein Advisors\u2019 deputy chief investment officer, Dan Suzuki, told the business information service.<\/p>\n

THE MARKETS THIS MORNING- <\/p>\n

Major Asian benchmarks are all in the red this morning<\/strong>, and futures point to selling pressure on Wall Street at today\u2019s market open. Major European benchmarks, meanwhile, were in the green in overnight trading \u2014 the big exception being France, where CAC 40 futures are down slightly as the country looks forward to what some think could be weeks of horse trading to form a new government. <\/p>\n

<\/a><\/a> <\/p>\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

ADX<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

9,139<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.1% (YTD: -4.6%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

DFM<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

4,070<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.1% (YTD: +0.3%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Nasdaq Dubai UAE20<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

3,492<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.1% (YTD: +0.3%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

USD : AED<\/strong> CBUAE<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Buy 3.67<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Sell 3.67<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

EIBOR<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

4.9% o\/n<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

5.3% 1 yr<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

TASI<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

11,689<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.3% (YTD: -2.3%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

EGX30 <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

28,602<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.8% (YTD: +14.9%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

S&P 500<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

5,567<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.5% (YTD: +16.7%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

FTSE 100<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

8,204<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.5% (YTD: +6.1%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Euro Stoxx 50<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

4,979<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.2% (YTD: +10.1%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Brent crude<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 86.54<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-1.0%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Natural gas <\/strong>(Nymex)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 2.32<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-4.1%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Gold<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 2,398<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+1.2%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

BTC<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 56,729<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-2.2% (YTD: +34.8%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n

THE CLOSING BELL-<\/strong><\/p>\n

The DFM rose 0.1% on Friday on turnover of AED 236.2 mn. <\/strong>The index is up 0.3% y-o-y. <\/p>\n

In the green: <\/strong>Orascom Construction (+9.9%), GFH Financial Group (+5.6%) and Dubai Islamic Ins. and Reins. (+3.6%).<\/p>\n

In the red: <\/strong>Ithmaar Holding (-3.9%), Al Salam Sudan (-2.7%) and Emirates Reem Investments Company (-2.0%). <\/p>\n

Over on the ADX<\/strong>, the index rose 0.1% on turnover of AED 2.52 bn. Meanwhile, Nasdaq Dubai was up 0.1%.<\/p>\n

CORPORATE ACTIONS-<\/p>\n

GFH offloads 5% of issued capital: <\/strong>Bahrain-based Islamic investment bank GFH Financial Group sold over 191 mn of its treasury shares \u2014 equivalent to 5% of the firm\u2019s total issued capital \u2014 to Ahmad Bin Mohammad Al Qassimi, according to a disclosure (pdf)<\/a>. The share sale reduces the total number of treasury shares to 58.8 mn, representing 1.53% of GFH\u2019s capital. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A weak jobs report bolsters expectations that the US Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates in September, further fueling the benchmark\u2019s strong run<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":93622,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1553],"tags":[7,48,50,830],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-93621","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-planet-finance","tag-enterpriseam-uae","tag-financial-markets","tag-planet-finance","tag-sp-500","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"2c7b5b18-295e-4147-b5cc-e961c62a1976","order":"13","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2024\/7\/456.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"The S&P 500 is on a tear, and a rate cut could fuel its run. 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