{"id":88006,"date":"2024-01-16T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-01-16T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/uae\/could-we-see-dubai-real-estate-prices-cool-down-in-2024\/"},"modified":"2024-01-16T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2024-01-16T00:00:00","slug":"could-we-see-dubai-real-estate-prices-cool-down-in-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/uae\/2024\/01\/16\/could-we-see-dubai-real-estate-prices-cool-down-in-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"Could we see Dubai real estate prices cool down in 2024?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"> <strong>Enterprise Explains: Behind rising property prices + the outlook for the market in<\/strong><strong> 2024. <\/strong>Data out over the past few weeks has pointed to a <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/uae\/en\/news\/story\/39baf877-015c-464b-ab93-04f6fd3e68d6\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">record increase<\/a> in real estate prices in the UAE in 2023, with indications property prices will continue to appreciate in 2024 \u2014 albeit potentially at a slightly slower pace. The IMF estimates that real estate prices rose at the highest levels globally last year, with a 10.4% y-o-y surge, while others have estimated an even higher 15-18% surge in Dubai alone. <\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>By the numbers:<\/strong> The UAE ranks sixth globally in estate price increases since pre-pandemic levels, rising 14.1% and trailing Portugal, the US, Japan, and the Netherlands, according to the IMF. Dubai real estate\u2019s residential real price growth rates surged higher than any other major city in 2Q 2023, including Miami, Tokyo, and New York, according to the <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ubs.com\/global\/en\/media\/display-page-ndp\/en-20230920-grebi-2023.html\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">2023 UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index<\/a>. <\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>Sales also hit a record high in Dubai: <\/strong>Dubai\u2019s real estate sales neared AED 401 bn for the first time ever last year, with a record 129k sales recorded, up 32% y-o-y, <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.gulftoday.ae\/business\/2024\/01\/14\/dubais-realty-deals-exceeded-half-a-trillion-dirhams-in-2023\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">Gulf Today<\/a> reports, citing a review by real estate brokerage W Capital. <\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>The rental market is no different:<\/strong> Rentals in the emirate have risen some 42% since 2020, <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2023-12-27\/dubai-real-estate-markets-braces-for-2024-slowdown\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">Bloomberg<\/a> reports, citing data from property advisory firm CBRE Group.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>Soaring prices owe a lot to an influx of foreign wealth: <\/strong>Russian business leaders turned to Dubai after the outbreak of war in Ukraine, making up nearly 15% of the market, the <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.telegraph.co.uk\/business\/2023\/09\/20\/house-prices-dubai-rise-fastest-in-the-world\/\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">Telegraph<\/a> reports. Ultra-high-net-worth Russian individuals looked to Dubai due to its lack of Western sanctions, low taxes, favorable positioning for remote work, and residency programs. Middle-class Russians did the same, fueling competition for real estate at multiple price points.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>And it\u2019s not just Russians: <\/strong>Half of Dubai\u2019s property market consists of overseas buyers, including crypto m\u2019naires and wealthy individuals from Europe and India, reports The Telegraph. Chinese buyers also flocked to Dubai to safeguard their investments amidst geopolitical tensions, Sergei Rakov, head of technology at real estate agency Allsopp & Allsopp <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/pulse\/why-off-plan-developers-pricing-properties-so-aggressively\/\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">said<\/a>. <\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>A lot of it was driven by luxury buys: <\/strong>These buyers tended to favor Dubai\u2019s luxury segments, Rakov said. Wealthy buyers spent approximately USD 2.27 bn on luxury homes in Dubai in 2023, with the most expensive transaction (a <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.arabianbusiness.com\/industries\/real-estate\/revealed-luxurious-dubai-penthouse-sells-for-record-breaking-136-2mn\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">five-bedroom apartment in Palm Jumeirah\u2019s Como Residences<\/a>) totaling USD 136.2 mn, reports <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2024-01-15\/dubai-sales-of-25-million-homes-double-as-global-elite-move-in\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">Bloomberg<\/a>. The number of homes purchased at USD 25 mn or more doubled y-o-y to reach 56 luxurious homes sold compared to 28 in 2022. Palm Jumeirah Island and Jumeirah Bay Island pooled the most global wealth. <\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>Dubai estates are expected to get slightly more expensive in 2024, though at a slower<\/strong><strong> pace than last year. <\/strong>S&P Global Ratings <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.spglobal.com\/ratings\/en\/research\/articles\/231113-sector-review-dubai-s-cashed-up-developers-are-prepared-for-a-cycle-reversal-12893096\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">forecasts<\/a> a 5-7% jump in Dubai property prices this year, down from 15% in 2023. The ratings agency also sees a risk of a cyclical slowdown, suggesting we could see prices \u201cdecelerate and potentially slightly reverse over the next 12-18 months, with price declines not exceeding 5%-10%.\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>The past two months have shown signs of a slowdown: <\/strong>Morgan Stanley sees \u201ccontinued tailwinds\u201d for the market and thinks the market this year will be \u201cless of a boom than 2023,\u201d <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2023-12-27\/dubai-real-estate-markets-braces-for-2024-slowdown\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">Bloomberg<\/a> reports. Despite rents continuing to increase, the rate of the increase is cooling in some popular neighborhoods, with average rents rising 19.2% in November, slightly slower than October\u2019s 19.7%, according to CBRE data picked up by Bloomberg. <\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>Purchasing power is stretched thin:<\/strong>Buyers in Dubai are turning to smaller, one-bedroom apartments and studios amid global economic uncertainty, Bloomberg quotes Tatjana Lescova, S&P\u2019s associate director of corporate ratings, as saying. Lescova, who covers three Emirati developers with a combined market share of some 50%, pointed to a downsizing trend late last year. \u201cYou have the high net worth individuals who can afford multiple and multi-mn properties, but the bulk of the market is coming to a certain limit in terms of purchasing power as property becomes expensive,\u201d Lescova said.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>Oversaturation + less demand will give way to lower prices:<\/strong> Property developers are already lowering prices to \u201creel in hesitant buyers,\u201d Lescova said. This comes as sales of houses are expected to jump to 40k in Dubai this year, compared to historical figures of 15-30k homes sold.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>Developers will shift their focus to earnings growth<\/strong> as they look to avoid history repeating itself with the boom-and-bust cycle in real estate in Dubai, Bloomberg cites Morgan Stanley as saying. <\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>Despite the expected slowdown, prices in Dubai are considered to be \u201cfairly valued,\u201d <\/strong>with consistent income growth and rental growth surpassing owner-occupied price growth,according to UBS.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>S&#038;P Global Ratings forecasts property prices will climb 5-10% this year<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":88007,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1599],"tags":[87,603,7,98],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-88006","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-enterprise-explains","tag-dubai","tag-enterprise-explains","tag-enterpriseam-uae","tag-real-estate","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"c7859e91-1b27-4af2-9988-e59791032e2c","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2024\/1\/994.jpg","photo_position":"below","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"Could we see Dubai real estate prices cool down in 2024?","related_issue":[87996],"teaser":"S&P Global Ratings forecasts property prices will climb 5-10% this year","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2024\/1\/.526b6dbe-e325-4303-9b04-3ec761513d0e.mp3"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.1 (Yoast SEO v27.1.1) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Could we see Dubai real estate prices cool down in 2024? 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