{"id":116601,"date":"2026-05-05T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-05-05T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/uae\/?p=116601"},"modified":"2026-05-05T03:08:59","modified_gmt":"2026-05-05T03:08:59","slug":"runway-getting-longer-for-dubais-aviation-targets","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/uae\/2026\/05\/05\/runway-getting-longer-for-dubais-aviation-targets\/","title":{"rendered":"Runway getting longer for Dubai\u2019s aviation targets?"},"content":{"rendered":"

1Q 2026<\/strong> was the first quarter in a while where Dubai International Airport (DXB) did not report a rise in traffic. <\/strong>The airport saw traffic fall 20.6% y-o-y during the quarter, while March traffic plunged 65.7%, according to recent data<\/a>. Even during the war, around 6 mn passengers moved through DXB, and 213k tons of cargo came through as of 30 April. <\/p>\n

Only up from here? <\/strong>\u201cAviation has a long track record of rebounding quickly from shocks,\u201d <\/p>\n

Richard Maslen, head of analysis at CAPA - Centre for Aviation, tells EnterpriseAM. \u201cDubai International Airport remains one of the most structurally advantaged hubs in global aviation. The question is not whether it recovers \u2014 but how quickly confidence returns to match demand.\u201d<\/p>\n

IN CONTEXT- <\/strong>Airspace restrictions imposed at the start of the war were scrapped<\/a> earlier this week, setting the stage for a gradual recovery. Dubai Airports CEO Paul Griffiths said flights are currently being ramped up. <\/p>\n

DXB now has 51 airlines \u2014 out of 90 \u2014 serving 192 destinations<\/strong>, Griffiths said, which falls short of the usual throughput. The gap is mostly due to less US and Western European airlines operating flights to and from DXB due to difficulty obtaining ins. cover, as government travel advisories continue, he added. <\/p>\n

\u201cThe key issue for Western airlines is not demand \u2014 it\u2019s risk-adjusted profitability,\u201d <\/strong>Maslen tells us. \u201cIn the current environment, deploying aircraft into the Gulf comes with higher uncertainty, higher costs, and operational complexity.\u201d Add to that the already highly competitive landscape of the Gulf, and \u201cthe commercial case becomes much harder.\u201d \u201cCapacity follows certainty \u2014 and right now, certainty lies elsewhere,\u201d he adds. <\/p>\n

Still, recovery is expected \u2014 and soon:<\/strong> Griffiths expects airlines to come back \u201cvery rapidly now,\u201d Griffiths said. May figures are already strong, and the transfer market, which usually accounts for half of the usual data, is recovering strongly, he said, adding that he remains optimistic, particularly heading into 3Q and 4Q. <\/p>\n

The problem?<\/strong> \u201cIf ins. constraints and travel advisories don\u2019t ease,\u201d Maslen says. That might \u201cslow recovery rather than stop it \u2014 but the impact is meaningful. They affect airline decisions, passenger confidence, and cost structures all at once, creating a drag on both capacity and demand, particularly in higher-yield segments where corporate travel providers hold huge influence.\u201d<\/p>\n

Already, Griffiths says, its target to reach 100 mn passengers a year has been shifted from 2026 to 2027<\/strong>, according to Bloomberg<\/a>. Despite that, Griffiths still expects to close the year in \u201cpositive territory.\u201d Maslen\u2019s take? \u201cThe recovery is intact \u2014 but the runway has just got longer. Confidence, not demand, is the real constraint right now.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Dubai Airports is banking on a summer and fall recovery to offset a decline in traffic in 1Q 2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":116602,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2414],"tags":[306,1657,7,2413,1367],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-116601","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-the-big-story-today","tag-aviation","tag-dubai-international-airport","tag-enterpriseam-uae","tag-the-big-story-today","tag-transport","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"39879e59-964f-4947-b768-b18487f63740","order":"3","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2025\/7\/603.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"Recovery ahead for the aviation sector?","related_issue":[116597],"teaser":"Dubai Airports is banking on a summer and fall recovery to offset a decline in traffic in 1Q 2026"},"yoast_head":"\nRunway getting longer for Dubai\u2019s aviation targets? 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