{"id":116465,"date":"2026-05-04T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-05-04T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/uae\/?p=116465"},"modified":"2026-05-04T02:57:40","modified_gmt":"2026-05-04T02:57:40","slug":"abu-dhabi-holds-aa-rating-from-fitch-as-oil-exports-cushion-blow-spending-ramps-up","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/uae\/2026\/05\/04\/abu-dhabi-holds-aa-rating-from-fitch-as-oil-exports-cushion-blow-spending-ramps-up\/","title":{"rendered":"Abu Dhabi holds AA rating from Fitch as oil exports cushion blow, spending ramps up"},"content":{"rendered":"

Fitch Ratings has affirmed Abu Dhabi\u2019s AA sovereign<\/strong> rating with a stable <\/strong>outlook<\/strong>, pointing to strong fiscal and external buffers even as the emirate heads into a period of higher spending and borrowing amid regional tensions, according to a press release<\/a>.<\/p>\n

More spending, more borrowing: <\/strong>Fitch expects government spending to rise as Abu Dhabi steps up support for key government-related entities (GREs) \u2014 particularly in logistics \u2014 in light of the war, with broader programs likely to follow to support the non-oil economy. That will feed into higher debt, which is projected to rise to 25.3% of GDP this year from 19.5% in 2025, though it remains well below peer medians.<\/p>\n

Strong buffers are still keeping the emirate comfortable: <\/strong>Abu Dhabi\u2019s balance sheet continues to anchor the rating, with sovereign net foreign assets estimated at around 291% of GDP \u2014 among the highest globally \u2014 alongside what Fitch describes as \u201cvery strong fiscal and external metrics.\u201d<\/p>\n

It\u2019s all about oil: <\/strong>The rating affirmation also reflects \u201cthe resilience of oil export revenue during the Iran war,\u201d helping offset near-term disruption. The UAE managed to get some of its oil out despite the blockade due to the Habshan-Fujairah pipeline. The pipeline has a capacity for about half of its production, or 1.8 mn bbl \/ d. <\/p>\n

REMEMBER- <\/strong>The UAE is gearing up for even more oil revenues as it looks to boost its capacity and export freely without Opec\u2019s restrictions. A production hike to 5 mn bbl \/ d \u2014 up from about 3.4 mn bbl \/ d before the war \u2014 could add some USD 40 bn in annual gross oil revenue, analysts estimate. The country is also expected to ramp up spending<\/a> across upstream capacity, drilling, and export infrastructure.<\/p>\n

On the downside: <\/strong>Fiscal space is tightening. Fitch expects the budget surplus to narrow to 3.0% of GDP in 2026 from 6.5% last year, with a small deficit emerging when excluding investment income \u2014 the first since 2020.<\/p>\n

AND- Risks are stacking up: <\/strong>The agency flags \u201csignificant risks of a renewed flare-up,\u201d including potential disruption to oil and gas exports or a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz. These are scenarios that could weigh on growth, fiscal balances, and the broader credit profile.<\/p>\n

The bigger concern? The non-oil economy.<\/strong> A \u201cmore lasting and structural deterioration in the regional security environment would challenge economic diversification\u201d and hit confidence-sensitive sectors, even as GRE-led investment continues to anchor activity. The emirate\u2019s high reliance on the oil sector is what is holding it back from a higher rating at the moment.<\/p>\n

The UAE government is already acting to support the economy <\/strong>through a renewed localization and supply chain resilience push. <\/strong>The government launched a AED 1 bn industrial fund to support vital industries like pharma, food, and industrials, while a federal tourism package is also in the works<\/a> as authorities look to cushion a sector under pressure.<\/p>\n

Growth is taking a hit: <\/strong>Fitch expects Abu Dhabi\u2019s economy to contract by around 1% in 2026, with both oil and non-oil activity under pressure before a gradual recovery.<\/p>\n

Still, resilience holds for now: <\/strong>Higher oil prices and alternative export routes are helping keep revenues broadly in line with pre-war expectations, supporting the stable outlook despite the uncertain backdrop.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Growth is set to dip by around 1% in 2026 amid higher borrowing, but oil revenues are expected to underpin longer-term growth<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":116466,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2414],"tags":[1360,1391,7,646,20,2413],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-116465","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-the-big-story-today","tag-abu-dhabi","tag-debt","tag-enterpriseam-uae","tag-fitch","tag-gdp","tag-the-big-story-today","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"09528cbf-a3d1-4e2b-ba61-ba79417938d7","order":"3","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2025\/4\/242.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"Abu 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