{"id":116178,"date":"2026-04-28T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-04-28T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/uae\/?p=116178"},"modified":"2026-04-28T03:09:12","modified_gmt":"2026-04-28T03:09:12","slug":"the-uae-doesnt-want-a-loan-from-dc-but-it-does-want-to-send-a-message","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/uae\/2026\/04\/28\/the-uae-doesnt-want-a-loan-from-dc-but-it-does-want-to-send-a-message\/","title":{"rendered":"The UAE doesn\u2019t want a loan from DC \u2014 but it does want to send a message"},"content":{"rendered":"

Everyone\u2019s talking about the <\/strong>currency swap<\/a><\/strong> the UAE is reportedly discussi<\/strong>ng with the US \u2014 but most media outlets have got it wrong. <\/strong>Many \u2014 we\u2019re looking at you, New York Times and Wall Street Journal \u2014 have framed it as a \u201cloan\u201d and a \u201clifeline,\u201d but that\u2019s just poor headline writing.<\/p>\n

First up: <\/strong>The UAE has plenty of greenbacks in the bank \u2014 USD 300 bn<\/a> at the end of February, thank you very much \u2014 so this is not a matter of shoring up FX reserves. Second: It won\u2019t have burned even a fraction of that despite the drying up of FX revenue streams since the war began.<\/p>\n

Plus: The UAE has easy, affordable access to the global debt market. <\/strong>To pick but one recent data point: Investors placed bids for nearly 5x more than was on offer in the UAE\u2019s AED 1.1 bn Islamic treasury sukuk auction<\/a> yesterday. The Finance Ministry priced the 2033 tranche at a 10 bps spread over US Treasuries, anchoring the long end of the AED curve.<\/p>\n

So why? Why would you need a \u201cfinancial <\/strong>lifeline\u201d if you have USD 300 bn in the vault? <\/strong>Think of it this way: Most of the UAE\u2019s USD holdings are parked in the central bank or locked up in big sovereigns, including Adia, Mubadala, ADQ, and L\u2019Imad. Meanwhile, the banking system is being starved of USD inflows from the oil trade and tourism, thanks to the war \u2014 but banks still need to clear trade, settle payments, and roll their own USD liabilities. Oh, and the swap? It costs nothing <\/strong>and may never be used. It\u2019s cheap ins.<\/p>\n

\u201cCurrency swap agreements between central banks are typically precautionary<\/strong> liquidity tools<\/strong> rather than emergency funding mechanisms,\u201d banking and finance consultant and investment and trade strategy advisor Amjad Naser tells us. \u201cThey allow counterparties to access foreign currency (often USD) in exchange for local currency, with an agreement to reverse the transaction at a later date,\u201d he says, emphasizing that \u201cswaps act as a backstop rather than a primary funding source.\u201d<\/p>\n

What the UAE wants is the country-level equivalent of a secured credit card. <\/strong>The UAE is facing a \u201cliquidity mismatch,\u201d not running out of ready capital, Ryan Lemand, a former advisor to the UAE government and founder and CEO of wealth manager NeoVision, writes in a LinkedIn post<\/a> we\u2019ve previously quoted. \u201cNo one is giving anyone money. It's a currency loan, secured by a currency deposit, with no credit risk on either side<\/strong>,\u201d Lemand adds. The Fed, he notes, has standing swap lines with EU, Canadian, Japanese, and UK central banks. \u201cNone of those counterparties were receiving \u2018aid.\u2019\u201d<\/p>\n

A Federal Reserve swap line would act as a high-signal liquidity buffer<\/strong>, reinforcing confidence in the UAE\u2019s financial system despite its already strong FX reserves and external position, Naser says. Ultimately, the arrangement would enhance the UAE\u2019s strategic flexibility amid shifting global trade dynamics and heightened volatility, Naser notes.<\/p>\n

\n

What\u2019s in it for the US?<\/p>\n

For starters, the US doesn\u2019t want to see countries <\/strong>around the world \u2014 squeezed by the fallout from its war on Iran \u2014 start dumping treasuries.<\/strong> US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told the Senate that \u201cswap lines, whether it\u2019s from the Federal Reserve or the Treasury, are to maintain order in the [USD] funding markets and to prevent the sale of the US assets in a disorderly way. The swap line would both benefit the UAE and the US.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cThese financial moves may also signal the UAE edging closer to the US<\/strong> after Iranian attacks during the war<\/strong>,\u201d Geoeconomist Celine Bteish and MENA Economist Hamzeh Al Gaood write in a research note seen by EnterpriseAM. The swap represents a vehicle for Washington \u201cto counter Chinese regional influence,\u201d particularly in light of existing facilities with the People\u2019s Bank of China.<\/p>\n

The Wall Street Journal also warned that the UAE had intimated it was considering <\/strong>pricing oil in RMB<\/strong>, and that claim spread like wildfire, feeding into a multiyear story arc that has seen actors including Russia, China, and in some emerging markets picking at the USD\u2019s position as the world\u2019s currency of choice for trade and reserves.<\/p>\n

Why would the UAE float pricing oil in RMB? <\/strong>It\u2019s about a better position at the bargaining table. On the one hand, no US administration can accept a challenge to the dominance of the petrodollar. On the other, the UAE is looking to bolster its bargaining position across several strategic fronts. Key priorities include securing continued access to AI chips and compute (had been a thorny issue until Abu Dhabi turned its back on Chinese tech), the restocking of air defense systems, and finally getting access to the F-35 program<\/a> (still stalled). Beyond defense, the UAE wants to ensure that its investments in the US (demanded by Trump) get preferential treatment from prickly regulators (hello, CFIUS \u2014 and pre-cleared investment corridors or AI and critical tech infrastructure). Ultimately, the UAE is seeking to lock in a seat at the post-war regional table. There\u2019s a reason, friends, that the crown prince of Abu Dhabi was in Beijing earlier this month.<\/strong><\/p>\n

\n

The trend is also bigger than just the UAE or the US<\/p>\n

The UAE is also strengthening its fiscal buffers and \u201cevolving its non-USD denominated<\/strong> swaps<\/strong>,\u201d Naser said, highlighting a broader shift supporting de-dollarization and deeper financial ties with Asian markets. Recent agreements include a USD 5.4 bn<\/a>swap with Bahrain<\/a>, as well as an AED 18 bn facility with China in 2023 and a USD 4.9 bn swap with Turkey last year.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The UAE doesn\u2019t want a loan \u2014 but it sure wants AI compute. And F-35s. And more interceptors. And for CFIUS to be nice. And\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":116179,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2591],"tags":[157,2590,19,7],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-116178","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-contrarian-view","tag-central-bank-of-the-uae","tag-contrarian-view","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam-uae","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"5ce113c6-bd38-4b53-bff9-86fb95ab94b6","order":"4","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2026\/4\/1242.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"A sop, not a swap","related_issue":[116171],"teaser":"The UAE doesn\u2019t want a loan \u2014 but it sure wants AI compute. 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