{"id":116173,"date":"2026-04-28T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-04-28T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/uae\/?p=116173"},"modified":"2026-04-28T03:09:09","modified_gmt":"2026-04-28T03:09:09","slug":"this-morning-uaes-gdp-to-stagnate-this-year-reuters-poll","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/uae\/2026\/04\/28\/this-morning-uaes-gdp-to-stagnate-this-year-reuters-poll\/","title":{"rendered":"THIS MORNING: UAE\u2019s GDP to stagnate this year -Reuters poll"},"content":{"rendered":"

Good morning, friends. <\/strong>It\u2019s still unclear how US-Iran talks will move forward, with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio implying that Iran will not cede control of the Strait of Hormuz and that Iran proposed delaying talks over its nuclear program<\/a> once the war has ended. <\/p>\n

As the war drags on and the double blockade at the Strait of Hormuz stretches supply chains more than ever<\/strong>, we\u2019re seeing reports of disruptions hitting new sectors every day. Market headwinds are leading some to delay IPOs and others to delay planned debt issuances (read: Burjeel Holding, below).<\/p>\n

Others are doing the opposite, shoring up their war chests.<\/strong> Emirates NBD is reportedly tapping public markets for an AT1 issuance, just weeks after raising a USD 2.25 bn syndicated loan and USD 325 mn in private placements. Meanwhile, embedded finance platform Comfi just raised USD 65 mn<\/strong> to help cushion the strain on SMEs \u2014 and expand into Saudi Arabia. <\/p>\n

<\/a> This comes as economists downgrade forecasts for the region<\/strong>, with the latest Reuters poll<\/a> \u2014 conducted between 8 and 24 April \u2014 showing that most now see the UAE\u2019s growth stagnating this year, compared to a forecast of 5% expansion just three months ago. Others in the region \u2014 Qatar, Kuwait, and Bahrain \u2014 are expected to shrink, while Saudi Arabia and Oman could fare slightly better due to their stronger position in the crude markets amid ongoing disruptions. <\/p>\n

It\u2019s going to take a while for the economy to recover, but it will happen:<\/strong> \u201cThe GDP-level that will emerge after the war is clearly lower for the next several years, despite a relatively swift recovery\u2026 It will take the entire second half of 2026 to rebuild damaged assets and re-establish supply chains,\u201d Ralf Wiegert, head of MENA economics at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said. Economists see UAE growth coming in at 5.4% next year. <\/p>\n

Watch this space <\/p>\n

<\/a> CRITICAL MINERALS \u2014 The UAE and the US are reportedly backing a USD 100<\/strong> mn effort by Congo\u2019s General Inspectorate of Mines to create a paramilitary unit<\/strong> to oversee and protect its mines, Bloomberg<\/a> reports, citing an emailed statement. The agency wants to hire as many as 3k armed recruits by December and 20k by 2028.<\/p>\n

What\u2019s the paramilitary force\u2019s role? <\/strong>To secure production, oversee traceable transport of minerals, and replace \u201cdefense forces currently deployed in mining zones.\u201d<\/p>\n

It\u2019s unclear whether this is government or private funding<\/strong>, but our guess is that it\u2019s government-backed. The UAE and the US have been working together on \u201csecuring\u201d critical minerals supply chains \u2014 specifically those linked to AI \u2014 which the US has been trying to do to counter China\u2019s dominance in the sector. The US launched Pax Silica to that effect, and the UAE joined the initiative in January alongside other countries, including Japan, India, the UK, South Korea, and Qatar.<\/p>\n

Pax Silica has already yielded several initiatives<\/strong>, including a framework agreement to formalize and mobilize public and private capital toward critical minerals<\/a>. Additionally, an investment consortium<\/a> featuring Mubadala Investment was launched to invest in projects that enhance supply chain resilience across the energy and critical minerals sectors.<\/p>\n

And in other Congo-UAE critical minerals cooperation news\u2026<\/strong> Paradigm Holdings, a UAE-based family office and investment group with interests spanning mining, real estate, hospitality, and other sectors, signed a supply agreement with the government of the Democratic Republic of Congo, Arabian Business<\/a> reports. The agreement helps the company build a \"scalable, long-term supply network that connects directly back into the UAE\u2019s role as a global trading center,\u201d Paradigm founder Steven Hawkins is quoted as saying. The company already has refineries across Cape Verde, Morocco, and Rwanda.<\/p>\n

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ENERGY <\/strong>\u2014 Did an <\/strong>Adnoc <\/strong>LNG tanker just cross Hormuz?<\/strong> An LNG tanker operated by Adnoc Logistics & Services appears to have passed through the Strait of Hormuz, possibly becoming the first vessel of its kind to do so since the outbreak of the regional war, Reuters<\/a> reports, citing ship-tracking data. After weeks without broadcasting its location, the vessel appears to be off the west coast of India. <\/p>\n

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<\/a> DEBT WATCH \u2014 Burjeel hits pause on its debut sukuk: <\/strong>ADX-listed healthcare provider Burjeel Holdings has put a planned USD 1.5 bn Islamic bond issuance on hold, CEO Shamsheer Vayalil told Semafor<\/a>, citing the war and weaker market conditions. \u201cSpreads have changed,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

IN CONTEXT- <\/strong>Burjeel had been meeting regional and international investors pre-war in February<\/a> as part of an early-stage roadshow, in what would have marked a notable return of Gulf healthcare issuers to hard-currency debt markets after NMC Health\u2019s 2020 collapse chilled sentiment across the sector. The group had reportedly been preparing to close the transaction in London.<\/p>\n

The proceeds were meant in part to fund a medical education and research expansion <\/strong>that aimed to attract top talent and global pharma partners to the UAE, Vayalil told Semafor.<\/p>\n

Not entirely off the table:<\/strong> Burjeel could revisit the transaction if conditions improve and with \u201csome local good government support,\u201d Vayalil added. Authorities have already moved quickly with wartime support measures, including cashflow relief at Dubai Healthcare City<\/a> and a new AED 1 bn national fund<\/a> focused on localization and supply-chain resilience.<\/p>\n

In other news, the war also reshaped priorities on the ground:<\/strong> \u201cNo more office,\u201d Vayalil said, adding that Burjeel\u2019s C-suite moved into hospitals, while the group stockpiled supplies, kept emergency rooms on standby during the earlier days of the conflict in anticipation of a surge in patients, and opened a mental health hotline for staff.<\/p>\n

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<\/a> DISRUPTION WATCH \u2014 Fertilizer bottlenecks are turning into a supply <\/strong>shock: <\/strong>More than half of the Middle East\u2019s urea output may have been lost since the Iran conflict began, as the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz stalls shipments and leaves product stranded in the Gulf, Bloomberg<\/a> reports, citing CRU Group estimates of 55%-60% halted output.<\/p>\n

Why it matters well beyond the Gulf: <\/strong>Roughly 45% of global urea trade comes from producers with manufacturing sites on the Gulf, supplying key markets including India, Europe, and Brazil. Bloomberg data also showed 44 fertilizer vessels still stuck in the Gulf, with almost half carrying urea.<\/p>\n

A major fertilizer producer here at home says it\u2019s been navigating the disruption: <\/strong>CEO Ahmed El Hoshy told The National<\/a> the company had made \u201cpretty abnormal movements of vessels\u201d and was rerouting cargo from Algeria and Nigeria to Australia, while using higher fertilizer prices to offset added logistics costs. \u201cWe\u2019re trying our best to move the product out,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

The longer the disruption lasts, the harder the reset may be.<\/strong> CRU warned producers could face further shutdowns if storage fills up, adding that fertilizer plant restarts \u201care not a switch,\u201d suggesting supply strains may outlast any eventual reopening of Hormuz.<\/p>\n

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M&A Watch \u2014 Paramount\u2019s takeover of Warner Bros. awaits FCC approval: <\/strong>Paramount has submitted a request<\/a> to the Federal Communications Commission to approve the funding structure for its takeover of Warner Bros. Discovery. The filing is necessary to bypass statutory limits<\/a> on foreign ownership of US broadcasting assets, as foreign entities will own slightly less than 50% of the merged entity. This comes a day after Warner Bros. Discovery shareholders greenlit<\/a> the merger. <\/p>\n

REMEMBER- <\/strong>The merger was reportedly<\/a> backed by some USD 24 bn in commitments from Abu Dhabi government-owned firm L\u2019imad and other GCC sovereign wealth funds, which are anchoring the capital-intensive takeover. <\/p>\n

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PSA<\/p>\n

Flying Emirates anytime soon?<\/strong> You might be able to access better wifi if you\u2019re on an A380, as the first A380 is now equipped with 2 GB worth of bandwidth courtesy of Starlink, according to a Dubai Media Office statement<\/a>. This gives passengers more wifi access points and stronger connectivity.<\/p>\n

We knew this was coming: <\/strong>Emirates confirmed in November<\/a> that it would equip all 232 aircraft in its in-service widebody fleet with Starlink by mid-2027, after months of talks<\/a> and certification work we first reported on last year. The airline says 25 Boeing 777-300ER aircraft are already fitted, with more than 650k passengers having flown on Starlink-enabled services so far.<\/p>\n

What\u2019s next:<\/strong> More A380 installations are due throughout 2026, with live TV streaming planned later.<\/p>\n

REMEMBER- It isn\u2019t just for airlines anymore:<\/strong> Starlink also went live for consumers in the UAE last month<\/a>, offering satellite broadband locally. <\/p>\n

WEATHER- We\u2019re inching closer to the 40\u00b0C mark\u2026 <\/strong>Today\u2019s high in Dubai is 38\u00b0C, with a low of 27\u00b0C, while Abu Dhabi will see a high of 37\u00b0C and a low of 27\u00b0C. <\/p>\n

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Happening today<\/p>\n

The US Federal Reserve starts its open market committee meeting today.<\/strong> It\u2019s widely expected to leave rates on hold, and the Central Bank of the UAE and other Gulf central banks will likely follow suit given the USD peg. The central banks of the UK, EU, and Canada will also set rates this week.<\/p>\n

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The big story abroad<\/p>\n

It is a pretty quiet morning on the global front pages<\/strong>, with the latest on the US-Iran negotiations getting top billing. <\/p>\n

Where do the peace talks stand? <\/strong>It is unlikely that we\u2019ll see any progress in the talks between the US and Iran anytime soon. US President Donald Trump is reportedly dissatisfied<\/a> with Iran\u2019s latest proposal, which calls for an end to the US naval blockade, deferring discussions<\/a> regarding Iran\u2019s nuclear program until after the war is over. <\/p>\n

We\u2019ll be waiting to hear from Trump<\/strong> after the White House Press Secretary told<\/a>reporters<\/a> that he will address the matter very soon. <\/p>\n

Meanwhile, in the world of finance: <\/strong>The value of the fund finance market has ballooned<\/a>beyond USD 1 tn<\/a>, according to a Moody\u2019s Ratings report. The industry is surging as private credit funds multiply and a dealmaking slump forces private equity firms to seek frequent injections of banknotes.<\/p>\n

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