{"id":115584,"date":"2026-04-17T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-04-17T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/uae\/?p=115584"},"modified":"2026-04-17T02:58:55","modified_gmt":"2026-04-17T02:58:55","slug":"prolonged-regional-conflict-could-drag-uae-growth-to-1-4-as-bmi-slashes-gcc-outlook","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/uae\/2026\/04\/17\/prolonged-regional-conflict-could-drag-uae-growth-to-1-4-as-bmi-slashes-gcc-outlook\/","title":{"rendered":"Prolonged regional conflict could drag UAE growth to 1.4% as BMI slashes GCC outlook"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"padding: 0;margin: 0;line-height: 1.15;text-align: left\"><strong>The UAE\u2019s GDP growth could plummet to about 1.4% in 2026<\/strong> if the US-Iran war extends through May without a diplomatic breakthrough, Fitch Solutions' Research Unit BMI MENA Country Risk Senior Analyst Mariette Kas-Hanna said in a webinar attended by EnterpriseAM. This marks a massive downgrade from the agency\u2019s previous forecast of <a href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/uae\/2026\/03\/04\/capital-outflows-to-be-expected-in-the-near-term-as-war-dents-the-uaes-safe-haven-status-analysts-say\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">5%<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding: 0;margin: 0;line-height: 1.15;text-align: left\">^ That\u2019s still better than Goldman<strong> Sachs\u2019 <\/strong><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/uae\/2026\/03\/13\/goldman-sachs-warns-uae-gdp-could-contract-5-if-regional-conflict-persists\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">forecast<\/a><\/strong><strong> of a 5% contraction<\/strong> if the war lasts through the end of the month.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding: 0;margin: 0;line-height: 1.15;text-align: left\"><strong>Growth across the GCC has been slashed to 1.9% for 2026<\/strong>, down from a previous estimate of 4.8% and from 4.4% in 2025. The revision is primarily due to the region\u2019s high exposure to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. \u201cAny sustained disruption would affect not only energy exports but also non-energy exports, re-exports, and imports,\u201d Kas-Hanna explained.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding: 0;margin: 0;line-height: 1.15;text-align: left\"><strong>The UAE loses about half of its oil production if the war continues<\/strong>, putting it in a better position than other Gulf countries like Kuwait and Qatar since it\u2019s able to reroute its exports through the Fujairah pipeline, according to BMI's Head of MENA Country Risk Ramona Moubarak. This allows the country to maintain a critical revenue stream from hydrocarbons that peers lack.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding: 0;margin: 0;line-height: 1.15;text-align: left\"><strong>By the numbers: <\/strong>The UAE\u2019s revenues are down 2.6% to USD 6.58 bn y-o-y in March, according to Kpler data cited by <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/business\/energy\/hormuz-closure-divides-fortunes-middle-eastern-oil-states-2026-04-06\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Reuters<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding: 0;margin: 0;line-height: 1.15;text-align: left\"><strong>MENA at a standstill: <\/strong>The broader MENA growth outlook has been dragged down by 2.9 percentage points to just 1%, \u201cmaking it the slowest growing region globally,\u201d Kas-Hanna noted. This aligns closely with recent <a href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/uae\/2026\/04\/15\/imf-trims-global-gdp-forecast-with-dispersed-war-scenarios\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">IMF<\/a> projections placing MENA growth at 1.1%, though the Fund remains more optimistic about the UAE, forecasting 3.1% growth.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding: 0;margin: 0;line-height: 1.15;text-align: left\"><strong>The regional outlook is currently split between a 55% \u201cextend to end\u201d base case and a 45% \u201cextend to escalate\u201d scenario<\/strong>, Moubarak explained. Under the base case, hostilities are contained through April, leading to a diplomatic framework as both the US and Iran seek to avoid the structural costs of a full-scale war, and Brent would average about USD 78 \/ bbl.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding: 0;margin: 0;line-height: 1.15;text-align: left\"><strong>In a more severe escalation scenario, oil prices could spike to as high as USD 150 \/ bb<\/strong>l in a \u201clevel 3\u201d case involving an uncontrolled, prolonged war that inflicts structural damage on energy infrastructure. Under \u201clevel 1\u201d and \u201clevel 2\u201d scenarios, which would see Houthi-led disruptions in Bab Al Mandeb and temporary closures of key maritime chokepoints, prices would likely range between USD 115-130 \/ bbl, Moubarak explained.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Overall, the GCC is expected to grow only 1.9%, down from 4.8%<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":115585,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1556],"tags":[19,7,266],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-115584","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam-uae","tag-oil-and-gas","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"322f8dd0-5cdd-40c7-a17e-5362a7168474","order":"6","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2026\/3\/436.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"Prolonged regional conflict could drag UAE growth to 1.4% as BMI slashes GCC outlook","related_issue":[115574],"teaser":"Overall, the GCC is expected to grow only 1.9%, down from 4.8%","photo_link":"","related_sponsor":"","voice_url":"","en_translation_ref_id":"","section_story_id":""},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.1 (Yoast SEO v27.1.1) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Prolonged regional conflict could drag UAE growth to 1.4% as BMI slashes GCC outlook - UAE<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/uae\/2026\/04\/17\/prolonged-regional-conflict-could-drag-uae-growth-to-1-4-as-bmi-slashes-gcc-outlook\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Prolonged 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