{"id":115579,"date":"2026-04-17T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-04-17T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/uae\/?p=115579"},"modified":"2026-04-17T02:56:54","modified_gmt":"2026-04-17T02:56:54","slug":"regional-debt-markets-edge-back-from-the-brink","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/uae\/2026\/04\/17\/regional-debt-markets-edge-back-from-the-brink\/","title":{"rendered":"Regional debt markets edge back from the brink"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"padding: 0;margin: 0;line-height: 1.15;text-align: left\"><strong>Are regional debt markets thawing?<\/strong> We may be turning a corner on sky-high spreads after a <a href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/uae\/2026\/03\/13\/gcc-debt-markets-hit-the-brakes-as-geopolitical-risk-spikes\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">war risk premium that has crept into regional notes<\/a> since the outbreak of the war. While borrowing costs haven\u2019t fully retreated to pre-war levels, analysts tell EnterpriseAM the market has grown out of a defensive crouch and into a cautious bid-only rally.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding: 0;margin: 0;line-height: 1.15;text-align: left\"><strong>\u201c[Spreads] have tightened significantly. <\/strong>We're not back at pre-war levels yet, but we're pretty close on high-yield and investment-grade names,\u201d Zeina Rizk, partner and portfolio manager at Amwal Capital, tells EnterpriseAM. This is a sharp reversal from early April, when Rizk told us that market jitters made it nearly impossible to build order books without offering \u201cmeaningful concessions.\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding: 0;margin: 0;line-height: 1.15;text-align: left\"><strong>Today, sentiment has flipped. <\/strong>\u201cIt looks like there is appetite in the market and [liquidity] is being put to work,\u201d she says.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding: 0;margin: 0;line-height: 1.15;text-align: left\"><strong>This comes as part of a broader market recovery<\/strong> (read: this morning\u2019s Planet Finance, below) that has also seen equities rally across the world on optimism that the ceasefire might be extended or turned into a permanent end to the war.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding: 0;margin: 0;line-height: 1.15;text-align: left\"><strong>The market hasn\u2019t fully shaken off the risk:<\/strong> A 20-30 bps \u201cgeopolitical cushion\u201d remains, \u201cgiven the fragility of the situation and broader uncertainty in global rates,\u201d Sarah Alyasiri, financial strategist at CFI Financial Global \u2014 who accurately predicted that spreads would tighten quickly in a de-escalation scenario \u2014 tells us. \u201cThe key driver now is not just geopolitics, but also the rates backdrop,\u201d she said. Meanwhile, Rizk noted that it\u2019s too early to quantify the risk premium.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding: 0;margin: 0;line-height: 1.15;text-align: left\"><strong>The logic is circular:<\/strong> Higher oil prices, driven by the conflict\u2019s tail-end, could keep inflation sticky, forcing central banks to delay rate cuts \u2014 or worse, hike them \u2014 which regional issuers have been banking on for 2026.<\/p>\n<p class=\"tag-border-left\">Call it a side door<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding: 0;margin: 0;line-height: 1.15;text-align: left\"><strong>\u201cWe haven't seen issuers come to market in a normal roadshow<\/strong>,\u201d but sovereigns are aggressively tapping private placements, Rizk tells us. In the last 10 days alone, we\u2019ve seen a flurry of investment-grade activity in Abu Dhabi, Kuwait, and Qatar, which Rizk noted were \u201cflat to the curve, so they did not have to pay up.\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding: 0;margin: 0;line-height: 1.15;text-align: left\"><strong>Abu Dhabi has now raised <\/strong><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/uae\/2026\/04\/13\/abu-dhabi-shifts-to-private-debt-to-navigate-war-driven-market-volatility\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">USD 4.5 bn through private debt placements<\/a><\/strong>, with the latest USD 2 bn placement taking place this week at a coupon of 4.6%, according to the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/3b927d8b-4c6b-414a-bb85-3d6070495df7?syn-25a6b1a6=1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Financial Times<\/a>. The issuance was arranged by Goldman Sachs.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding: 0;margin: 0;line-height: 1.15;text-align: left\"><strong>\u201cPrimary markets need more stability <\/strong>[...] I don\u2019t expect a quick rebound in issuance,\u201d Muhammad Ahsan, senior head of treasury, global markets, investment banking, and international business at Bank Nizwa said. He added that primary activity \u201cwill take some more time to revive.\u201d Both Ahsan and Rizk agreed that clarity and durability are key for primary debt markets to fully reopen.<\/p>\n<p class=\"tag-border-left\">The waiting game<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding: 0;margin: 0;line-height: 1.15;text-align: left\"><strong>Not everyone is rushing back to the trough. <\/strong>While top-tier sovereigns and energy giants can now move, Saudi gigaprojects, developers, and more leveraged infrastructure firms are still in wait-and-see mode, Alyasiri says. She previously identified these sectors as the \u201cmost sensitive\u201d to pricing strikes due to their reliance on phased issuance.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding: 0;margin: 0;line-height: 1.15;text-align: left\"><strong>The good news? They have a buffer: <\/strong>Many of these entities \u2014 corporates, banks, and real estate developers \u2014 <a href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/uae\/2026\/03\/26\/is-dubai-real-estate-credit-cracking\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">front-loaded<\/a> their 2026 needs during a massive debt spree in 4Q 2025 and early this year, Ahsan previously told us. \u201c[They] are not under immediate funding pressure and prefer to delay issuance rather than lock in higher costs, so the market is reopening but in a selective and gradual way,\u201d Alyasiri said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"tag-border-left\">The most dangerous trap <strong>right now<\/strong> is a lack of differentiation<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding: 0;margin: 0;line-height: 1.15;text-align: left\"><strong>Current pricing doesn\u2019t distinguish between the strong and weak quasi-sovereign balance sheets<\/strong>, Alyasiri says. The market is currently operating on the assumption that \u201cimplicit government support\u201d is a blanket guarantee \u2014 an assumption she previously warned would be tested if global liquidity stayed tight.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding: 0;margin: 0;line-height: 1.15;text-align: left\"><strong>A selective repricing is looming: <\/strong>\u201cWhile the ceasefire reduces immediate pressure, it does not fundamentally change the underlying risk dynamic \u2014 it just postpones it,\u201d she added. For now, the region is enjoying a post-war honeymoon, but for the debt markets, the real price of money is still being decided.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding: 0;margin: 0;line-height: 1.15;text-align: left\">\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Spreads have clawed their way back from multi-year highs, but the recovery is selective and gradual<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":115580,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2414],"tags":[1360,1391,68,7,2413],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-115579","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-the-big-story-today","tag-abu-dhabi","tag-debt","tag-debt-watch","tag-enterpriseam-uae","tag-the-big-story-today","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"f4546667-054f-4bba-8e08-d6ee3de9b886","order":"3","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2024\/7\/260.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"Regional debt markets edge back from the brink","related_issue":[115574],"teaser":"Spreads have clawed their way back from multi-year highs, but the recovery is selective and gradual","photo_link":"","related_sponsor":"","voice_url":"","en_translation_ref_id":"","section_story_id":""},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.1 (Yoast SEO v27.1.1) - 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