{"id":115234,"date":"2026-04-10T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-04-10T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/uae\/?p=115234"},"modified":"2026-04-10T03:25:01","modified_gmt":"2026-04-10T03:25:01","slug":"uae-central-bank-defies-regional-gloom-maintains-5-6-growth-forecast-for-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/uae\/2026\/04\/10\/uae-central-bank-defies-regional-gloom-maintains-5-6-growth-forecast-for-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"UAE central bank defies regional gloom, maintains 5.6% growth forecast for 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"

T<\/strong>he Central Bank of the UAE (CBUAE) is maintaining<\/strong> its 5.6% real GDP growth forecast for 2026 <\/strong>\u2014 unchanged from 2025 \u2014 signaling confidence in the economy even as international institutions slash their outlooks due to regional conflict, according to the bank\u2019s latest report (pdf)<\/a>.
The reasoning: <\/strong>The CBUAE\u2019s optimism is underpinned by a two-engine growth model, with hydrocarbon GDP expected to jump 7.3% on higher Opec+ quotas and non-oil activity projected to grow at a robust 5.1%, fueled by manufacturing, construction, and financial services.<\/p>\n

The CBUAE\u2019s outlook stands in stark contrast to recent downgrades from global firms<\/strong>, with Oxford Economics<\/a> now seeing the UAE\u2019s GDP contracting by 0.2%, a 4.6 percentage point downgrade from pre-war estimates. Similarly, Goldman Sachs<\/a> warns the country\u2019s GDP could shrink by around 5% this year if the conflict persists through April.<\/p>\n

The CBUAE\u2019s confidence is rooted in a strong 2025 performance<\/strong>, marked by rising oil output \u2014 which averaged 3.12 mn bbl \/ d (a 6.9% y-o-y increase) \u2014 solid non-oil momentum, and expanding financial depth, with banking assets reaching AED 5.4 tn and private lending up 18%.<\/p>\n

Fiscal and external positions also remain robust<\/strong>, with a AED 61.7 bn surplus in 9M 2025 and general government revenue rising to AED 408.5 bn \u2014 significantly bolstered by a 24.4% y-o-y increase in non-tax revenue streams.<\/p>\n

Trade and real estate: <\/strong>Non-oil foreign trade jumped 24.6% y-o-y to AED 2.5 tn through 3Q 2025, bolstered by a 45% rise in non-oil exports and an expanding Cepa network. Domestically, residential sales volumes in Abu Dhabi and Dubai climbed 22%, while the tourism sector hosted 23.3 mn guests.<\/p>\n

Looking ahead, it expects growth to moderate to 4.4% in 2027 <\/strong>as oil output stabilizes. Meanwhile, inflation is projected to remain contained at 1.8% in 2026 and 2.0% in 2027, \u201cwith rent prices and external factors expected to be the primary source of upward inflationary pressures,\u201d according to the report.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The CBUAE\u2019s optimism is underpinned by a two-engine growth model, including hydrocarbon rebound and non-hydrocarbon GDP<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":115235,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1556],"tags":[2421,19,7,2584],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-115234","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-central-bank-of-the-uae-cbuae","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam-uae","tag-growth","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"8aa8f73e-ebfb-4276-aa19-fa01de96b37d","order":"4","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2025\/3\/1512.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"CBUAE 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