{"id":115161,"date":"2026-04-09T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-04-09T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/uae\/?p=115161"},"modified":"2026-04-09T02:59:14","modified_gmt":"2026-04-09T02:59:14","slug":"uncertainty-reigns-as-ceasefires-fate-hangs-in-the-balance","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/uae\/2026\/04\/09\/uncertainty-reigns-as-ceasefires-fate-hangs-in-the-balance\/","title":{"rendered":"Uncertainty reigns as ceasefire\u2019s fate hangs in the balance"},"content":{"rendered":"

We\u2019re entering yet another period of uncertainty these<\/strong> next two weeks<\/strong>, where one of two scenarios could follow: negotiations could result in a permanent end to the conflict, or we\u2019ll see a much darker outcome where the US\/Israel and Iran don\u2019t see eye to eye. <\/p>\n

Political analysts and economists the world over are putting their thinking hats on<\/strong> and debating how things might unfold.<\/strong> On one hand, the ceasefire was great news for the GCC, and the short reprieve could allow governments to \u2014 at the very least \u2014 strategize and prepare for what\u2019s ahead. On the other hand, question marks over the differences between the two sides linger. <\/p>\n

Even the announcement itself signalled miscommunication among the different parties involved<\/strong>, with Pakistan\u2019s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif saying the agreement applied everywhere \u201cincluding Lebanon,\u201d after which Israel confirmed that\u2019s not true. <\/p>\n

Both sides have maximalist demands<\/strong>, and it\u2019s unclear whether either of them are willing to sway on them. While the US demands an end to Iran\u2019s nuclear program, no further enrichment of uranium, the dismantlement of ballistic missile and drone capacity, and the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, Iran is set on \u201ccoordinating\u201d traffic in the Strait and keeping its nuclear program, as well as full sanctions relief. <\/p>\n

The wild card in all of this could be Israel:<\/strong> \u201cIsrael has very different interests from the US and could be a spoiler, particularly if it continues the war in Lebanon,\u201d director of Khalij Economics and GCC analyst for GlobalSource Partners Justin Alexander told EnterpriseAM. Confluence Consultants\u2019 Head of Research Amandeep Ahuja agrees: \u201cOne of the biggest obstacles in my view is the lack of coherence between US and Israeli policy,\u201d Ahuja said, noting that alignment could be difficult, even as peace is more in sight than it was before. <\/p>\n

It has already launched its worst attack on Lebanon since the war started<\/strong>, killing 254 people, prompting Iran to shut the Strait of Hormuz and threaten to withdraw from the ceasefire agreement. <\/p>\n

What can the Gulf do now? <\/p>\n

The UAE was quick to declare itself \u201ctriumphant\u201d<\/strong> in the aftermath of the ceasefire, with Diplomatic Advisor to the President Anwar Gargash saying on X<\/a> that the country \u201cprevailed through an epic national defense\u201d and that moving forward, the focus is on managing a \u201ccomplex regional landscape with greater leverage, sharper insight, and a more solid capacity to influence and shape the future.\u201d <\/p>\n

Hardening defense systems in the two-week period is likely:<\/strong> \u201cIt is possible that GCC states diversify and deepen defense cooperation arrangements [with the likes of Australia, Italy, and France,\u201d Ahuja said. \u201cIn the meantime, they may also seek to enhance security in the key infrastructure spots that could be targeted, including ports, data centers, etc,\u201d she added.<\/p>\n

Gulf st<\/strong>ates including the UAE and Saudi Arabia are already exploring new defense systems<\/strong>, including USD 2.5k Ukrainian-designed interceptor drones, Japan-based Terra Drone<\/a> \u2019s CEO Toru Tokushige told Reute<\/a>rs<\/a>. <\/p>\n

Middle East expansion: <\/strong>Terra Drone, which has recently partnered with Ukraine startup Amazing Drones<\/a> to develop the Terra A1 interceptor, plans to market the drones overseas and potentially establish production in the Gulf, Tokushige said. The interceptor has yet to be battle-tested and is expected to undergo trials with Ukraine\u2019s military in the coming months.<\/p>\n

REMEMBER- <\/strong>The outbreak of war <\/strong>triggered a defense rethink<\/a><\/strong> for the GCC<\/strong>, pushing countries to look for alternative air and missile defense systems that don\u2019t cost USD 3-12 mn per shot to take down a USD 20-100k Iranian drone. In a meeting between the UAE\u2019s and Ukraine\u2019s leaders last month<\/a>, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said his country was offering its defense systems to partners.<\/p>\n

What about building up its offensive defenses? <\/strong>\u201cThe stance so far has been defensive instead of offensive, and that is likely to continue, but we can expect the states to be ready for an offensive stance, despite not being particularly inclined to lean towards it,\u201d Ahuja said. <\/p>\n

Longer-term investments in repair and recovery will take more time <\/p>\n

\u201cHard-hit sectors\u2019 revival may be a longer term project,\u201d <\/strong>Ahuja added. That includes damage to oil and gas facilities, including Habshan, and industrial facilities like Emirates Global Aluminium\u2019s Al Taweelah facility, which was severely damaged following strikes from Iran. It will take a year to fully restore production. <\/p>\n

Analysts estimate around 3 mn tonnes per annum of aluminum capacity are currently offline<\/strong> \u2014 roughly half of Middle East production, between disruptions at EGA and Aluminum Bahrain, as well as the shutdowns at Qatar\u2019s Qatalum due to natural gas shortages, aluminum industry expert and PerenniAL CEO Brian Hesse told EnterpriseAM. This has widened the pre-existing global market deficit, previously forecast around 360k tonnes for 2026, to an estimated 2\u20132.5 mn tonnes if the outage persists, he added. <\/p>\n

Downstream sectors including aerospace, automotive, packaging, and construction face tighter supply, higher costs, and potential allocation issues<\/strong>, he noted. Hesse also sees the likelihood of London Metal Exchange reaching USD 4k in the near future, echoing what analysts told us earlier<\/a>. <\/p>\n

The more important feat will be restoring the \u201csafe haven\u201d image<\/p>\n

\u201cReviving [the safe haven reputation] will likely take time<\/strong>, but these two weeks are definitely the beginning of that recovery \u2014 provided the ceasefire holds,\u201d Ahuja said. \u201cFor investors seeking to expand partnerships in the region, the two weeks may provide a slight push into them reconsidering a return to the region, but a full return will require a permanent resolution,\u201d she added. <\/p>\n

Two weeks might not be enough to bring back those who have left, though:<\/strong> \u201cIt may be a bit early for [those who left] to make a decision whether to come back or not because we don't know yet whether this is a lasting agreement or something temporary,\u201d former US ambassador to Oman and Middle East policy analyst Marc Sievers told EnterpriseAM UAE. Sievers is based in Abu Dhabi himself, and hasn\u2019t left since the start of the war. His view, along with many others we\u2019ve spoken to, is that the UAE will \u201ccome out of this stronger than ever.\u201d <\/p>\n

P<\/strong>rivate bankers who have left are already considering coming back to the UAE after the ceasefire news<\/strong>. Sentiment is fluctuating between skepticism and confidence, but some execs are already making return plans, Bloomberg<\/a> reports. <\/p>\n

One major bank told us it will remain fully remote this week<\/strong>, but that it\u2019s monitoring the situation currently. <\/p>\n

\n

Disruptions are likely to continue, at least in the near term <\/p>\n

The Strait of Hormuz will be key, if it does stay open. <\/strong>\u201cI think everyone will in their own way take advantage of this opportunity and I'm hopeful that there is some arrangement that keeps the Strait of Hormuz open,\u201d Sievers said. This has yet to materialize after the events that unfolded yesterday, but even if it does, there\u2019s the matter of derisking.<\/p>\n

\u201cShipping is going to be reluctant to test that until it's entirely clear that it's safe to pass through<\/strong>, and that may also involve some kind of ad hoc coalition to escort shipping,\u201d he added. Bahrain and the UAE have already signalled they\u2019re open to joining a coalition of that kind, and the US has spearheaded similar initiatives before. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

We\u2019re entering yet another period of uncertainty these next two weeks, where one of two scenarios could follow: negotiations could result in a permanent end to the conflict, or we\u2019ll see a much darker outcome where the US\/Israel and Iran don\u2019t see eye to eye. Political analysts and economists the world over are putting their […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":115162,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2414],"tags":[19,7,2413],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-115161","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-the-big-story-today","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam-uae","tag-the-big-story-today","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"9f5f8fda-3e0a-4c83-bfe3-558f66301280","order":"3","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2026\/4\/459.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"The aftermath","related_issue":[115156],"teaser":""},"yoast_head":"\nUncertainty reigns as ceasefire\u2019s fate hangs in the balance - UAE<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/uae\/2026\/04\/09\/uncertainty-reigns-as-ceasefires-fate-hangs-in-the-balance\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Uncertainty reigns as ceasefire\u2019s fate hangs in the balance\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"We\u2019re entering yet another period of uncertainty these next two weeks, where one of two scenarios could follow: negotiations could result in a permanent end to the conflict, or we\u2019ll see a much darker outcome where the US\/Israel and Iran don\u2019t see eye to eye. 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