{"id":114836,"date":"2026-04-02T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-04-02T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/uae\/?p=114836"},"modified":"2026-04-02T03:00:54","modified_gmt":"2026-04-02T03:00:54","slug":"dubai-property-is-swallowing-record-money-and-barely-blinking","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/uae\/2026\/04\/02\/dubai-property-is-swallowing-record-money-and-barely-blinking\/","title":{"rendered":"Dubai property is swallowing record money and barely blinking"},"content":{"rendered":"

The war hasn\u2019t dented Dubai\u2019s property market too hard just yet.<\/strong> Dubai\u2019s property prices held steady while absorbing record capital inflows in 1Q 2026, according to Dubai Land Department<\/a> and Property Finder data cited by Al Khaleej<\/a>. Total real estate transactions hit AED 251 bn during the quarter, up 30% y-o-y \u2014 the highest quarterly performance on record \u2014 across 61.6k transactions, up 6% y-o-y.<\/p>\n

The first two months of the year offset any decline in sales in March. <\/strong>\u201cThe strength of the Dubai residential market during January and February 2026 has undoubtedly been the key driving force behind another very strong quarter of sales in 1Q,\u201d Matthew Green, head of research at CBRE MENA, told EnterpriseAM. \u201cJanuary and February were phenomenal months, abnormal months even,\u201d Director of Business Development and Client Relations at Cavendish Maxwell Zacky Sajjad told EnterpriseAM. <\/p>\n

Even March, when viewed in a historical context, remained \u201cquite strong<\/strong>,\u201d Sajjad added. The market is operating with a sense of \u201cbusiness continuity,\u201d he added. <\/p>\n

Prices also have held more firmly than expected:<\/strong> Property Finder data shows just 1% of listings seeing price reductions even as global uncertainty rises. <\/p>\n

But momentum may not hold:<\/strong> \u201cWe are now likely to see transactional conditions soften further through April as investor confidence is further tested,\u201d Green said.<\/p>\n

That was already expected, even before the war hit:<\/strong> \u201cNo market just keeps going up indefinitely,\u201d Sajjad said, pointing to the sharp price and volume gains over the past five years. \u201cThere was always going to be a stabilizing period.\u201d <\/p>\n

REMEMBER- <\/strong>As we\u2019ve previously noted, several analysts had pencilled in a correction for 2025, but with project delivery slippage<\/a>, those expectations had been pushed out to this year<\/a>. ValuStrat had seen growth moderating to around 10% in 2026 earlier in the year, and Moody\u2019s now sees<\/a> a cooling phase ahead \u2014 though not an outright correction \u2014 depending on how badly confidence takes a hit, and how long the war lasts. <\/p>\n

There are healthy signals for the market <\/p>\n

A sharp increase in mortgages \u2014 46% to AED 59.7 bn, faster than regular sales \u2014 points to a more leveraged, and potentially more sticky, buyer base<\/strong> rather than purely cashdriven flows.<\/p>\n

\u201cWith market maturity comes more borrowing<\/strong>,\u201d Sajjad said, noting that even buyers with liquidity may choose to finance real estate given its illiquid nature and the UAE\u2019s expat-heavy demographic.<\/p>\n

Off-plan transactions alone also accounted for AED 81 bn of sales during the quarter<\/strong>, suggesting developers are still capturing demand and building pipeline despite external noise.<\/p>\n

Concerns of real estate players potentially hitting a refinancing wall are more of a consideration now than before<\/strong>, as property bonds see their spreads blow out amid a broader regional sell-off, but analysts we spoke to don\u2019t expect real estate players to default on payments<\/a>. Analysts cite strong banking relationships, solid liquidity positions, and ample time ahead of maturity deadlines.<\/p>\n

There are buffers in place:<\/strong> \u201cDevelopers today are broadly better capitalized than during early covid times, following a really strong +five-year upcycle, so businesses are much better prepared to endure a period of potentially lower volumes,\u201d Green said. <\/p>\n

Less 2008, more managed cycle: <\/strong>Sajjad agreed that today\u2019s market is \u201cvastly different,\u201d pointing to escrow protections, higher loan-to-value requirements, and stricter due diligence. \u201cThe risk has been de-risked a lot,\u201d he said, adding that the market is \u201cwell placed to weather the storm.\u201d<\/p>\n

One thing that also helps? <\/strong>This is playing out against a slight contraction in supply, down more than 3%, helping keep prices anchored, according to Property Finder data.<\/p>\n

Demand is still there, just more selective:<\/strong> Interest in properties above AED 5 mn has climbed to nearly a quarter of total demand, signaling that high-net-worth buyers are still leaning in, the data shows.<\/p>\n

That shift is showing up in hard data: <\/strong>\u201cSales of +USD 5 mn homes and offices [...] rose from 711 in 1Q 2025 to 882 in 1Q 2026, reflecting growth of around 25% y-o-y,\u201d Green said. The market is also still seeing large-ticket transactions, including a single AED 422 mn transaction, Property Finder data showed, underscoring depth at the top end.<\/p>\n

Early-quarter demand was driven by a mix of new international inflows and existing investors<\/strong>, though activity in March likely skewed more toward existing buyers, Sajjad said. Dubai\u2019s growing global profile, from aviation to tourism, continues to attract international buyers, while domestic demand remains resilient.<\/p>\n

From an investor lens, volatility may even open doors.<\/strong> \u201cThe increased uncertainty is likely to create new [chances] to enter the market at levels not possible at the start of the year [...] particularly attractive for domestic-based investors that are typically positioned further up the risk curve,\u201d Green said.<\/p>\n

Where the pressure is building: The rental market <\/p>\n

Demand for units under AED 75k has risen to 44.7%<\/strong>, though this may reflect volume realities more than a mismatch. \u201cThe volume of transactions is in studios and one- to two-bed units,\u201d Sajjad said, noting that new supply is largely concentrated in more affordable segments.<\/p>\n

Rental leads<\/strong> have fallen between 30-40% y-o-y<\/strong>, according to Betterhomes data we picked up yesterday, with tenant enquiries also dropping 16% y-o-y. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A record AED 251 bn in transactions and a 46% jump in mortgages are colliding with stable prices and tightening supply<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":114837,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2414],"tags":[87,7,98,2413],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-114836","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-the-big-story-today","tag-dubai","tag-enterpriseam-uae","tag-real-estate","tag-the-big-story-today","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"7d5fc4c1-487b-4cf8-b1df-51d32c8bdf78","order":"3","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2025\/8\/1237.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"Dubai\u2019s property market has held up in March, but analysts expect a cooldown ahead","related_issue":[114831],"teaser":"A record AED 251 bn in transactions and a 46% jump in mortgages are colliding with stable prices and tightening supply"},"yoast_head":"\nDubai property is swallowing record money and barely blinking - 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