{"id":114200,"date":"2026-03-23T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-03-23T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/uae\/?p=114200"},"modified":"2026-03-23T02:54:02","modified_gmt":"2026-03-23T02:54:02","slug":"could-cbuaes-resilience-package-help-insulate-local-banks-from-potential-outflows","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/uae\/2026\/03\/23\/could-cbuaes-resilience-package-help-insulate-local-banks-from-potential-outflows\/","title":{"rendered":"Could CBUAE\u2019s resilience package help insulate local banks from potential outflows?"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Central Bank of the UAE\u2019s five-pillar Financial Institutional Resilience<\/strong> Package, <\/strong>announced late on Tuesday<\/a><\/strong>, has given investors a jolt of confidence <\/strong>in the domestic banking sector as it navigates this period of intense regional volatility. <\/p>\n

Markets closed in the green for the second consecutive day on Wednesday<\/strong>, after having seen outflows since opening after the regional war began, pulling the DFM near bear market territory<\/a>. The DFM rose 0.8%, led by financial institutions\u2019 gains, with Ajman Bank rising 5.3% and Mashreq gaining 4.8%. <\/p>\n

The move aligns with what most analysts expected from the government. <\/strong>\u201cWe consider the UAE as highly supportive to their banking system and expect extraordinary support to be forthcoming should the need arise, so we incorporate notches of support in our bank ratings in the UAE,\u201d S&P Global Ratings\u2019 managing director for financial institution ratings Mohamed Damak tells us.<\/p>\n

REMEMBER- <\/strong>The program allows banks to tap into 30% of their mandatory cash reserves and access new AED and USD term facilities, and also gives them the green light to postpone the classification of loans for stressed individual and corporate borrowers, a move reminiscent of the pandemic-era support measures. <\/p>\n

The buffer relief comes as UAE banks already \u201coperate at healthy capital buffers,\u201d<\/strong> CI Capital said in a research note seen by EnterpriseAM. The CBUAE statement also mentioned foreign exchange reserves of more than AED 1 tn and a monetary base cover ratio of 119%.<\/p>\n

What to watch, according to pundits: <\/strong>Some lenders might be more exposed than others due to exposure to sectors that might see be negatively impacted by a prolonged disruption due to the war, like real estate. Real estate accounts for roughly 16% of First Abu Dhabi Bank\u2019s loanbook for example, though only 20% of that is tied to Dubai, CI Capital said. <\/p>\n

!_SubHead_! The regional picture for the banking sector<\/strong><\/p>\n

Despite the strong<\/strong> capital buffers that GCC banks have, a prolonged war will trigger \u201csome deterioration in financial performance in 2026,\u201d<\/strong> S&P Global warned in a report<\/a>. While business continuity plans remain intact, the resilience narrative faces a \u201csterner test\u201d if energy volatility and supply chain disruptions harden into a long-term drag.<\/p>\n

S&P models a potential USD 307 bn exodus of domestic deposits across the GCC.<\/strong> While banks sit on USD 312 bn in cash and central bank reserves, a systemic run of that size would likely force the liquidation of investment portfolios. The good news is after a 20% haircut on those assets, the region\u2019s lenders would still have a USD 630 bn liquidity moat to deploy, suggesting even a worst-case scenario is manageable for most.<\/p>\n

The exceptions: <\/strong>Most GCC banking systems can absorb external outflows without state help, but Bahrain and Qatar remain the most vulnerable to funding flight due to their heightened external debt, the report explains.<\/p>\n

What to watch: <\/strong>The conflict\u2019s hit to balance sheets won\u2019t be immediate, but S&P warns of a performance dip in 2026 as stress in logistics, tourism, and real estate trickles through. While the region\u2019s top 45 lenders boast a solid 17.1% Tier 1 capital ratio, a \u201chigh-stress\u201d scenario\u2014 where NPLs spike to 7% of total loans \u2014 could wipe out USD 37 bn in capital. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Markets closed in the green for the second consecutive day on Wednesday, helped by gains across financial institutions<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":114201,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2414],"tags":[159,476,157,7,2413],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-114200","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-the-big-story-today","tag-banking","tag-cbuae","tag-central-bank-of-the-uae","tag-enterpriseam-uae","tag-the-big-story-today","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"55a414cf-5a52-456f-bf4b-a87588885bc2","order":"3","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2024\/9\/1532.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"CBUAE\u2019s 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