{"id":112672,"date":"2026-02-23T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-02-23T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/uae\/2026\/02\/23\/how-global-crises-are-turning-into-financial-assets\/"},"modified":"2026-02-23T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2026-02-23T00:00:00","slug":"how-global-crises-are-turning-into-financial-assets","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/uae\/2026\/02\/23\/how-global-crises-are-turning-into-financial-assets\/","title":{"rendered":"How global crises are turning into financial assets"},"content":{"rendered":"

Prediction markets are facing a new kind of scrutiny \u2014<\/strong> and this time it\u2019s not about sports or<\/strong> elections. It\u2019s about war and diplomacy. <\/strong>Platforms like Polymarket have turned nearly every headline into a tradable event, with daily trading volumes topping USD 100 mn. The business is booming: the total positions taken on these platforms surpassed USD 8.3 bn in December, The Guardian<\/a> reports. But as bns flow into transactions tied to geopolitical flashpoints, national security experts and lawmakers are raising concerns about what happens when global crises become financial instruments.<\/p>\n

At the heart of the debate is the incentive structure itself.<\/strong> Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan has openly praised<\/a> the model, saying \u201cit creates this financial incentive for people to go and divulge the information to the market.\u201d Critics argue that this very feature rewards those with material, non-public information. Blockchain analyst Andrew 10 Gwei described insider trading as \u201ca core feature of the system,\u201d claiming it is what makes prediction markets so fast and often so accurate. This advantage concentrated wealth by granting fewer than 0.04% of accounts more than 70% of the total realized gains, accumulating USD 3.7 bn.<\/p>\n

Broadcasting secrets:<\/strong> Highly accurate positions have appeared shortly before major global events, such as when one user placed tens of thousands of USD on contracts just 24 hours before 200 Israeli fighter jets bombed Iran, earning USD 128k in the process. Former White House ethics lawyer Richard Painter warned that such dynamics could have serious consequences on US national security. \u201cIf you know we\u2019re going to bomb Iran in the next week and you start placing [wagers], then the prediction market tells the Iranians they\u2019re about to get bombed,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

A weapon for foreign influence:<\/strong> The Atlantic Council<\/a> has described prediction markets as \u201cdual-use infrastructure.\u201d Unlike traditional markets, these platforms often operate with thinner liquidity, making them more vulnerable to coordinated actors\u2019 trading activity. In theory, state or non-state actors could take strategic positions to move odds, shape narratives, or amplify misinformation. During volatile geopolitical moments, even small shifts in pricing could feed back into online discourse, reinforcing speculation or panic.<\/p>\n

Governing for gains:<\/strong> The scale of money involved raises the specter of officials influencing real-world decisions to protect personal trading positions. A bill has already been introduced in the US Congress that would bar political insiders from participating in these markets.<\/p>\n

However, supporters argue that these markets improve price discovery and democratize<\/strong> forecasting. <\/strong>Critics counter that transforming war and diplomacy into tradable contracts risks creating incentives that thrive on instability itself.<\/p>\n

(** Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links <\/strong>to our background as well as external sources.)<\/p>\n

\n

MARKETS THIS MORNING- <\/p>\n

It is shaping up to be a volatile week of trading as markets react to US President Donald Trump\u2019s latest tariff announcement and brace for Nvidia\u2019s earnings out later this week. Wall Street futures are in the red this morning. Looking at Asia-Pacific markets, the Kospi and Hang Seng are starting the week in the green, while Japan\u2019s Nikkei is closed for the Emperor's Birthday. <\/p>\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

ADX<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

10,581<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.3% (YTD: +5.9%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

DFM<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

6,591<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.3% (YTD: +9.0%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Nasdaq Dubai UAE20<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

5,487<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.4% (YTD: +12.2%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

USD : AED<\/strong> CBUAE<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Buy 3.67<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Sell 3.67<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

EIBOR<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

3.4% o\/n<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

3.8% 1 yr<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

TASI<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

10,947<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-1.9% (YTD: +4.4%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

EGX30 <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

49,561<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-2.2% (YTD: +18.5%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

S&P 500<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

6,910<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.7% (YTD: +0.9%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

FTSE 100<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

10,687<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.6% (YTD: +7.6%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Euro Stoxx 50<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

6,131<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+1.2% (YTD: +5.9%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Brent crude<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 71.76<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.1%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Natural gas <\/strong>(Nymex)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 3.05<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+1.7%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Gold<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 5,080.90<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+1.7%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

BTC<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 67,575<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.6% (YTD: -22.9%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Chimera JP Morgan UAE Bond UCITS ETF<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 3.72<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.3% (YTD: -0.8%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

153.36<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.1% (YTD: +1.0%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

VIX (Volatility Index)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

19.09<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-5.6% (YTD: +27.7%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n

THE CLOSING BELL-<\/strong><\/p>\n

The ADX fell 0.3% on Friday<\/strong> on turnover of AED 1.1 bn. The index is up 5.9% YTD.<\/p>\n

In the green: <\/strong>Emirates Ins. Co. (+13.4%), Union Ins. Company (+10.4%), and Two Point Zero Group (+4.1%).<\/p>\n

In the red: <\/strong>Hily Holding (-7.5%), Ins. House (-7.0%), and Investcorp Capital (-5.8%). <\/p>\n

Over on the DFM<\/strong>, the index fell 0.3% on turnover of AED 737 mn. Meanwhile, Nasdaq Dubai was down 0.4%. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Daily trading volumes on Polymarket exceed USD 100 mn<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":112673,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1553],"tags":[29,7,48,50,135],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-112672","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-planet-finance","tag-capital-markets","tag-enterpriseam-uae","tag-financial-markets","tag-planet-finance","tag-regulation","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"7669b313-d877-4125-9899-9d44a7efc156","order":"10","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2026\/2\/1337.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"When wars become a trade","related_issue":[112655],"teaser":"Daily trading volumes on Polymarket exceed USD 100 mn"},"yoast_head":"\nHow global crises are turning into financial assets - 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