{"id":111681,"date":"2026-01-20T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-01-20T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/uae\/?p=111681"},"modified":"2026-01-20T03:17:51","modified_gmt":"2026-01-20T03:17:51","slug":"this-morning-imf-sees-mena-growing-3-9-in-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/uae\/2026\/01\/20\/this-morning-imf-sees-mena-growing-3-9-in-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"THIS MORNING: IMF sees MENA growing 3.9% in 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"

Good morning, friends. <\/strong>It\u2019s shaping up to be a busy newsweek, with today\u2019s issue bringing us plenty of diplomacy and M&A news. <\/p>\n

The big story of the day is the UAE\u2019s growing economic partnership with India<\/strong>, as President Mohamed bin Zayed\u2019s visit to New Delhi culminated in a slew of agreements spanning AI, energy, trade, and logistics, as the two countries double their trade target to USD 200 bn. <\/p>\n

We\u2019re also happy to see a return of M&A as a staple in our issues<\/strong> after a short lull, with another big cross-GCC investment set to take place as Kuwait\u2019s Al Wafir looks to snap up a stake in DFM-listed Unikai Foods; NMDC acquiring a stake in a European firm; and Global South Utilities buying into a local renewables outfit.<\/p>\n

WEATHER- More of the same:<\/strong> It\u2019s another day of pleasant weather across the UAE, with temperatures reaching a high of 25\u00b0C in Dubai and Abu Dhabi, before cooling to 16\u00b0C in Dubai and 15\u00b0C in the capital. <\/p>\n

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YEMEN \u2014 The UAE has categorically denied claims by Yemen\u2019s Salem Al-Khanbashi, the <\/strong>governor of east Yemen\u2019s Hadramawt, that it is running a \u201csecret prison\u201d <\/strong>and harboring weapons at Riyan Airport in Mukalla in a Defense Ministry statement<\/a>. The ministry dismissed the claims as \u201cdeliberate fabrications and misinformation\u201d as well as \u201cmisleading allegations\u201d and confirmed that it withdrew all military operations as of early January. <\/p>\n

Watch this space <\/p>\n

<\/a> The<\/strong> IMF has revised its 2026 growth forecast for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region <\/strong>to 3.9%<\/strong>, a 0.2 percentage point bump from its projection last October<\/a>, according to its latest World Economic Outlook<\/a>. Growth is expected to accelerate further to 4.0% in 2027.<\/p>\n

Increased oil output, paired with strong demand and continued reforms, were cited as reasons for the upward revision<\/strong> and current momentum in the Middle East and Central Asia, the report said. It also comes against the backdrop of more steady global growth, with its forecast for the global economy also bumped up by 0.2 percentage points to 3.3%. <\/p>\n

The forecast makes <\/strong>the<\/strong> IMF <\/strong>among the most bullish on MENA, with BMI forecasting a 3.6% growth clip for the region<\/a> this year, up from 3% in 2025, while the World Bank penciled in 3.7% growth for the region<\/a>. <\/p>\n

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<\/a> Abu Dhabi-based<\/strong> Lulu Group International<\/a><\/strong> is exploring partnerships with Indian <\/strong>e-commerce firms to offer its hypermarket assortment online <\/strong>through their platforms, with a rollout targeted for 1Q 2026, Economic Times<\/a> reports, citing Chairman and Managing Director MA Yusuff Ali. The move would extend the retailer\u2019s existing omni-channel model in the Gulf to India through third-party platforms rather than a proprietary marketplace.<\/p>\n

The partnership-led model is already being used in the region:<\/strong> Lulu sells online through partnerships with Amazon and Talabat in the UAE, HungerStation in Saudi Arabia, and Snoonu in Qatar. <\/p>\n

India is a major sourcing base for the Lulu Group<\/strong>, and it plans to expand India\u2019s share of its total imports to 35% within two years from 26-27% (and around INR 110 bn) currently. It also operates malls and hypermarkets in 10 Indian cities, with additional projects planned across several locations.<\/p>\n

Background: <\/strong>Lulu had earlier announced<\/a> plans to invest INR 100 bn in retail, food processing, and logistics in India by 2026. <\/p>\n

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<\/a> LO<\/strong>GISTICS \u2014 AD Ports Group eyes Nigerian maritime expansion:<\/strong> AD Ports Group signed an MoU with Nigeria\u2019s Marine and Blue Economy Ministry to explore upgrading the country\u2019s port infrastructure and digitizing its maritime operations, according to a statement<\/a>. The agreement outlines potential cooperation in developing specialized terminals, logistics hubs, and implementing digital trade solutions across Nigeria\u2019s coastline.<\/p>\n

Why it matters:<\/strong> This move signals AD Ports' intent to deepen its footprint in West Africa, positioning itself as a primary gateway for the Africa-MENA trade corridor. Keep an eye out for potential long-term concessions, investments, and digital infrastructure agreements. <\/p>\n

Background:<\/strong> The move also follows the newly signed<\/a> trade and economic partnership with Nigeria aimed at accelerating bilateral flows in energy, technology, agriculture, and metals.<\/p>\n

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Data point<\/p>\n

<\/a> 30% \u2014 that\u2019s the y-o-y jump in trade volumes on the Dubai Gold and Commodities<\/strong> Exchange<\/strong> last year, pushing the value of contracts traded to almost USD 47 bn and total volumes above 2 mn lots, according to a press release<\/a>. Gold futures were the standout driver, with volumes surging 613% y-o-y, as more people flocked to the safe haven trade amid rising volatility. <\/p>\n

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Happening this week<\/p>\n

It\u2019s Davos week: <\/strong>World leaders, bankers, and global business leaders are in Switzerland this week for the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting, which runs through to Friday. You can go deeper on the meeting\u2019s microsite here<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The UAE is sending what it says is the fifth biggest delegation at Davos this year<\/strong>, with some 100 officials, ministers, and senior executives from major private companies set to attend, according to state news agency Wam<\/a>. The delegation will be led by Chairwoman of Dubai Culture and Arts Authority Sheikha Latifa bint Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum. <\/p>\n

Besides a pavilion which is set to host a series of sessions, meetings, and media engagements, several officials will take the stage for panels throughout the week. Chairman of Abu Dhabi\u2019s Health Department Mansoor Al Mansoori<\/strong> will join a panel on healthcare innovation and inefficiencies in the healthcare system tomorrow; after which Sheikha Latifa bint Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum <\/strong>will participate in a session focused on the influence of storytelling in shaping global narratives.<\/p>\n

Later on Friday, Damac\u2019s Founder and Chairman Hussain Sajwani<\/strong> takes the stage alongside other regional leaders for a session focused on the <\/strong>\u201cProsperity Agenda for the Middle East.\u201d <\/p>\n

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The<\/strong>Sharjah Real Estate Exhibition<\/a><\/strong> (also known as Acres) kicks off tomorrow and<\/strong> runs until <\/strong>Saturday <\/strong>at Expo Center Sharjah, bringing together more than 110 developers showcasing residential, commercial, industrial, and land projects from across the UAE. The four-day event is positioned as a transaction-focused forum, giving investors and buyers direct access to new launches, payment plans, and on-site agreement execution.<\/p>\n

UMEX Abu Dhabi<\/a><\/strong> runs from Tuesday, 20 January to Thursday, 22 January<\/strong> at Adnec Center Abu Dhabi, bringing defense and manufacturers of unmanned and autonomous systems together. The focus spans military and civilian applications \u2014 from ISR and autonomous vehicles to logistics, energy, and smart-city use cases.<\/p>\n

The<\/strong> Abu Dhabi Department of Economic Development (ADDED) arrived in Italy <\/strong>yesterday and is leading an economic delegation until Thursday, 22 January<\/strong> to strengthen bilateral cooperation and economic engagement, Wam<\/a> reports. <\/p>\n

In partnership with ADDED, the Abu Dhabi Investment Office will host the Abu Dhabi Investment Forum in Milan on Thursday<\/strong>, convening Italian business leaders and investors with Abu Dhabi policymakers to strengthen collaboration across key sectors as well as boost Italian investments in the UAE capital. <\/p>\n

Let\u2019s refresh:<\/strong> There are already over 680 Italian companies operating in Abu Dhabi across energy, construction, advanced manufacturing, financial services, technology, education, and professional services, increasing by 29% in 2025. The UAE has also planned to invest over USD 40 bn<\/a> in Italy, entering into over 40 agreements for data centers, AI, space exploration technologies, defense tech, energy, and more. <\/p>\n

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The big story abroad<\/p>\n

It\u2019s a mixed bag in the foreign business press this morning<\/strong>, as Davos, Trump, and the EU\u2019s potential retaliation against the US continue to dominate headlines. <\/p>\n

Trump\u2019s \u201cBoard of Peace\u201d plans are still causing havoc<\/strong>, as he plans to sign off on its constitution and remit in Davos on Thursday. Invitations to the Board of Peace \u2014 which some are criticizing as being Trump\u2019s answer to the UN \u2014 have been extended<\/a> to dozens of countries, including the UAE, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia, but France has openly declined the invitation and Israel\u2019s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is pushing back due to the make-up of the Board of Peace for Gaza, which includes Qatar and Turkey. <\/p>\n

^^The must-read on the topic: Trump Wants His Peace Board Signed in Davos. Macron Declines<\/a> <\/p>\n

Meanwhile, the chatter around the EU\u2019s potential reaction to the US\u2019 threats over its opposition to his claims over Greenland has extended to markets<\/strong>, with analysts looking at whether European countries might go as far as selling off tns of USD in US bonds and stocks, potentially driving borrowing costs up and equities down, Bloomberg<\/a> reports. Analysts say this is an unlikely scenario given a lot of these assets are held by private funds, but the fact that Deutsche Bank\u2019s chief global currency strategist is even discussing the \u201cweaponization of capital\u201d signals the current risks to markets amid ongoing geopolitical tensions and uncertainty courtesy of Trump. <\/p>\n

Speaking of markets, the New York Stock Exchange\u2019s parent, the Intercontinental Exchange, is launching a 24\/7 platform for trading of tokenized assets<\/strong>, Reuters<\/a> reports. <\/p>\n

ALSO MAKING HEADLINES- Italian fashion designer Valentino died yesterday at his home in Rome at 93<\/strong>, leaving behind a storied legacy both on the Red Carpet<\/a> and across Paris\u2019 haute couture catwalks<\/a>. <\/p>\n

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***<\/p>\n

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***<\/p>\n

Market watch<\/p>\n

A<\/strong>sian refiners are ditching Murban:<\/strong> Abu Dhabi\u2019s flagship crude has lost its edge as cheaper alternatives gain ground across the Asian slate, Bloomberg<\/a> reports, citing traders. Murban\u2019s premium over Dubai crude hit USD 2.24 \/ bbl, more than 2x its end\u20112025 level, pushing refiners toward cheaper barrels. Upper Zakum, the UAE\u2019s medium-sour grade, was priced at a mere USD 0.10 premium over Dubai after trading at a markdown for most of the past two weeks. <\/p>\n

Why the change? <\/strong>This comes as Saudi Arabia ramps up medium-sour supply faster than peers, and refiners in Japan, South Korea, and India lean into Arab Medium and Arab Heavy, alongside Upper Zakum and Qatar\u2019s Al Shaheen, traders said. <\/p>\n

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Circle your calendar<\/p>\n

Check out our full calendar on the web<\/strong> for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays, and news triggers.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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