{"id":111521,"date":"2026-01-15T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-01-15T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/uae\/2026\/01\/15\/oil-is-trading-on-risk-again\/"},"modified":"2026-01-15T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2026-01-15T00:00:00","slug":"oil-is-trading-on-risk-again","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/uae\/2026\/01\/15\/oil-is-trading-on-risk-again\/","title":{"rendered":"Oil is trading on risk again"},"content":{"rendered":"

Oil markets haven\u2019t had a breather since the year started<\/strong>, lurching from one geopolitical shock to the next. The focus has now pivoted from the US military\u2019s capture of Venezuela\u2019s Nicol\u00e1s Maduro \u2014 which briefly signaled a return of heavy crude to the market \u2014 to the ongoing upheaval in Iran. With reports that Tehran\u2019s crackdown on nationwide protests has left over 2k dead and US President Donald Trump signaling a potential military response, the \u201cgeopolitical risk premium\u201d has returned to oil markets. <\/p>\n

Markets moved accordingly:<\/strong> Oil reached its highest level so far this year yesterday, with Brent climbing to USD 66.10 per barrel<\/a>, after pausing<\/a> temporarily on Tuesday as Venezuelan crude went on water<\/a>. Citi also raised<\/a> its near-term Brent view to some USD 70, framing the move as risk-driven, not the result of lost supply. <\/p>\n

What to watch for:<\/strong> While the events in Venezuela didn\u2019t have a meaningful impact on Brent prices, the spread between Brent and WTI is now at an eight-month high.<\/p>\n

\n

Why Iran matters \u2014 even now<\/p>\n

Iran\u2019s oil industry is no longer the giant it once was.<\/strong> Years of sanctions and underinvestment have capped production at some 3.3 mn bbl \/ d<\/a>, roughly 3% of global supply. But the country still punches above its weight \u2014 not because of volumes alone, but because of where and how its oil moves. <\/p>\n

Around 80-90% of Iranian crude exports flow to China<\/strong> \u2014 some 1.4-2 mn bbl \/ d<\/a> \u2014 mostly via opaque trading networks and the so-called \u201cdark fleet\u201d of aging tankers. By late December, more than 50 mn bbl of Iranian crude were moving through these shadow routes \u2014 the highest level in over two years, Bloomberg<\/a> cites Kpler data. Official customs data may not show Iranian barrels since mid-2022, but ship-tracking data does.<\/p>\n

Supply is now stuck: <\/strong>Iran\u2019s floating storage has climbed to some 166 mn bbl as buyers delay unloading and shipping becomes more complicated, Reuters<\/a> \u2019 data shows. <\/p>\n

\n

Where the risk shows up<\/p>\n

The spread that says more than the headline: <\/strong>Brent\u2019s premium over Dubai crude widened<\/a> on Tuesday to its highest level since July. For our neck of the woods, this spread is the most important \u201ctell\u201d in the market. When Brent carries a heavy premium, it means global traders are not chasing demand; they are hedging against a disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, the world\u2019s most critical energy artery through which 20 mn bbl\/d flows.<\/p>\n

In effect, the market is assigning a higher value to barrels perceived as \u201csafe\u201d<\/strong> (Brent\/WTI)<\/strong>, while Middle Eastern crude \u2014 physically closer to the potential conflict \u2014 is being discounted. For regional producers, this is a double-edged sword: Crude is gaining buyers in Asia because it is cheaper, but benchmarks aren\u2019t capturing the price upside<\/a> that the \u201crisk\u201d should theoretically provide.<\/p>\n

The Gulf is trying to tamp down risks:<\/strong> Behind the scenes, Riyadh, Muscat, and Doha have<\/a>privately warned<\/a> Washington that an attempt to topple the Iranian regime would rattle global markets beyond repair. The market is currently betting that the US will opt for surgical \u201crisk\u201d over a full-scale \u201csupply disruption.\u201d<\/p>\n

\n

The macro tripwire<\/p>\n

This is where oil stops being background noise and starts behaving like a macro shock:<\/strong> A USD 80 \/ bbl world would likely trigger a synchronized global selloff, Interactive Brokers notes<\/a>. That, in turn, could limit the Fed\u2019s ability to cut interest rates, removing a key support that has lifted risk assets over the past year. That vulnerability is already there, with three consecutive years of equity gains leaving markets exposed to an oil price shock and near-term correction.<\/p>\n

\n

MARKETS THIS MORNING- <\/p>\n

Asia-Pacific markets are nearly uniformly in the red in early trading, with the exception of South Korea\u2019s Kospi index, which is up less than 1% this morning. Japan\u2019s Nikkei snapped a brief rally that pushed it to a record high yesterday, while the Shanghai index, Hang Seng, and CSI 300 are all trading down. Wall Street looks set to open in the red again later today, extending losses after falling for a second session yesterday.<\/p>\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

ADX<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

10,038<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.5% (YTD: +0.5%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

DFM<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

6,262<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.9% (YTD: +3.6%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Nasdaq Dubai UAE20<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

5,025<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+1.5% (YTD: +2.8%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

USD : AED<\/strong> CBUAE<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Buy 3.67<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Sell 3.67<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

EIBOR<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

3.5% o\/n<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

3.6% 1 yr<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Tadawul <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

10,945<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.5% (YTD: +4.3%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

EGX30 <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

43,058<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-1.4% (YTD: +2.9%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

S&P 500 <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

6,927<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.5% (YTD: +1.2%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

FTSE 100 <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

10,184<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.5% (YTD: +2.6%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Euro Stoxx 50 <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

6,005<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.4% (YTD: +3.7%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Brent crude <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 64.82<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-2.6%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Natural gas (Nymex) <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 3.10<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.5%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Gold <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 4,609<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.6%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

BTC <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 96,606<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+1.4% (YTD: +10.3%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Chimera JP Morgan UAE Bond UCITS ETF<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

AED 3.79 <\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+1.3% (YTD: +1.1%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

151.74<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.1% (YTD: -0.1%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

VIX (Volatility Index)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

16.75<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+4.8% (YTD: +12.0%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n

THE CLOSING BELL-<\/strong><\/p>\n

The DFM fell 0.9% yesterday<\/strong> on turnover of AED 872.7 mn. The index is up 3.6% YTD.<\/p>\n

In the green: <\/strong>Aman (+12%), ENBD REIT (CEIC) (+4.8%), and Agility The Public Warehousing Company (+3.0%).<\/p>\n

In the red: <\/strong>Al Mal Capital REIT (-10.0%), National International Holding Company (-9.7%), and National Cement Company (-9.2%). <\/p>\n

Over on the ADX<\/strong>, the index was down 0.5% on turnover of AED 1.7 bn. Meanwhile, Nasdaq Dubai was up 1.5%.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Escalating unrest in Iran is pulling geopolitical risk premium back into crude<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":111522,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1553],"tags":[7,48,1396,50],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-111521","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-planet-finance","tag-enterpriseam-uae","tag-financial-markets","tag-oil","tag-planet-finance","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"50495f98-d203-4dd2-9c16-618e5141db4b","order":"11","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2026\/1\/493.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"Oil is trading on risk again","related_issue":[111504],"teaser":"Escalating unrest in Iran is pulling geopolitical risk premium back into crude"},"yoast_head":"\nOil is trading on risk again - 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