{"id":110874,"date":"2025-12-17T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-12-17T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/uae\/?p=110874"},"modified":"2026-01-04T21:41:03","modified_gmt":"2026-01-04T21:41:03","slug":"the-imf-is-happy-with-the-uaes-reform-and-growth-trajectory-based-on-its-latest-article-iv-consultation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/uae\/2025\/12\/17\/the-imf-is-happy-with-the-uaes-reform-and-growth-trajectory-based-on-its-latest-article-iv-consultation\/","title":{"rendered":"The IMF is happy with the UAE\u2019s reform and growth trajectory, based on its latest article IV consultation"},"content":{"rendered":"

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) maintained its growth forecast <\/strong>for the <\/strong>UAE\u2019s<\/strong> eco<\/strong>nomy at 4.8% in 2025 <\/strong>and 5% in 2026 in line with its latest projections in October<\/a>, according to the 2025 IMF Article IV consultation report<\/a> for the UAE.<\/p>\n

The anticipated 2025 growth is driven by a projected 5.3% expansion in the hydrocarbon sector<\/strong>, which is expected following the reversal of the Opec+ group's decision to pause oil production increases, alongside a 4.6% rise projected for the non-oil sector. <\/p>\n

The IMF sees the UAE economy continuing to show resilience against global shocks and uncertainty<\/strong>, underpinned by \u201csustained external surpluses.\u201d <\/p>\n

The UAE\u2019s overall fiscal surplus is forecast to remain around 5% in 2025 and 2026<\/strong>, as government revenues are exceeding expenditures leading to a projected net lending of 5.1% and 4.7% of GDP in 2025 and 2026, respectively. <\/p>\n

The external position remains strong,<\/strong> but the current account surplus is projected to decline to 13.3% of GDP in 2025 from 14.5% in 2024. The fund expects our current account surplus to shrink further amid higher intermediate and final goods imports in support of the diversification strategy.<\/p>\n

The banking sector is getting tub-tubs for maintaining resilience<\/strong>, keeping capital and liquidity levels above the regulatory minima during mid 2025. Tier 1 capital also came in at 16% while liquidity coverage ratio was at 153.2%, with a declining non-performing loans ratio showing strengthened capital buffers. Liquidity also increased, largely at the back of increased net capital inflows.<\/p>\n

Inflation is projected at 1.6% in 2025 <\/strong>and about 2% in 2026, with housing prices being the main driver for inflation. The fund attributed lower oil prices and weaker non-energy commodity prices as key factors for its inflation projection for this year.<\/p>\n

Our take <\/p>\n

The key message from the IMF to the UAE this time around? <\/strong>Simply: Keep it up. The policies supporting innovation and diversification have been doing wonders to the economy, so a continuation of that along with \u201cextreme vigilance in risk management\u201d are what the doctor ordered for 2026. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The anticipated 2025 growth is driven by a projected 5.3% expansion in the hydrocarbon sector and a 4.6% rise in the non-hydrocarbon sector<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":110875,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1556],"tags":[19,143,7,594],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-110874","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-economy","tag-energy","tag-enterpriseam-uae","tag-imf","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"b3fabea6-44b5-4c19-94c2-c7606a0c6f2f","order":"7","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2025\/12\/844.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"The 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