{"id":110825,"date":"2025-12-18T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-12-18T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/uae\/?p=110825"},"modified":"2026-01-04T21:48:30","modified_gmt":"2026-01-04T21:48:30","slug":"wonder-why-markets-are-edgy-about-the-circular-nature-of-ai-investing-weve-got-the-rundown","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/uae\/2025\/12\/18\/wonder-why-markets-are-edgy-about-the-circular-nature-of-ai-investing-weve-got-the-rundown\/","title":{"rendered":"Wonder why markets are edgy about the \u201ccircular nature\u201d of AI investing? We\u2019ve got the rundown."},"content":{"rendered":"

The global financial press wants the AI bubble to pop so hard you can practically feel <\/strong>it in the air this morning<\/strong> after jitters rattled Wall Street on Wednesday. <\/p>\n

What happened?<\/strong> Oracle\u2019s stock tumbled more than 5% yesterday after Blue Owl Capital \u2014 its primary data center financing partner \u2014 pulled out of a USD 10 bn project, triggering a broader tech selloff that sent the Nasdaq down 1.8% to a three-week low<\/a>. The Dow and S&P followed suit. <\/p>\n

What\u2019s really spooking traders:<\/strong> It\u2019s not one deal, but the structure of the entire AI buildout. Investors are growing uneasy about what\u2019s become common to call the \u201ccircular nature\u201d of AI spending. (A bit confused about what this \u201ccircular nature\u201d thing is? More on that below.) <\/p>\n

That\u2019s brought the dotcom question back <\/strong>on the op-ed pages and on business TV. By nearly every valuation metric, US equities are at their most expensive since 2000. The WSJ\u2019s James Mackintosh<\/a> goes deep into the structural parallels: heavy infrastructure spending financed by debt (fiber optic cables then, data centers now), a single-minded market focus on one theme, and \u201cpicks and shovels\u201d suppliers being the ones who really rake-in the profits (Cisco then, Nvidia now). <\/p>\n

That backdrop has traders spooked about today\u2019s US consumer price data.<\/strong> The figure for November is due out this morning (US East coast time). Economists expect headline inflation at 3.1% year-on-year \u2014 a cooler print could calm nerves, and a hotter one could accelerate the selloff.<\/p>\n

Enterprise Explains<\/p>\n

Confused about the \u201ccircular nature\u201d of AI investment? We\u2019ve got the rundown for <\/strong>you<\/strong>, because it\u2019s going to be in the headlines more and more heading into 2026. It\u2019s a lot, but it\u2019s not rocket science \u2014 just follow the money:<\/p>\n

It starts with the data centers Big Tech is building.<\/strong> Oracle, Microsoft, Google, and Amazon are collectively committing hundreds of bns to AI infrastructure. Oracle alone has USD 248 bn in data center lease commitments \u2014 up nearly 150% in just three months.<\/p>\n

Those data centers are serving AI companies like OpenAI and Anthropic<\/strong>, who need massive \u201ccompute\u201d to train and run their models. The Oracle project that Blue Owl pulled out of? It\u2019s being built for OpenAI.<\/p>\n

But Big Tech is also funding the AI companies\u2026<\/strong> Microsoft has poured bns into OpenAI, and Amazon (as of yesterday) looks like it\u2019s following suit. Google and Amazon are investors in Anthropic. Oracle and SoftBank are partners in OpenAI\u2019s massive USD 500 bn (yes, half-a-tn) Stargate infrastructure project. (That\u2019s *far* from an exhaustive list\u2026)<\/p>\n

And the AI companies are losing money hand-over-fist.<\/strong> Generative AI is, as the WSJ put it, is \u201cpriced well below what it costs to produce.\u201d OpenAI, Anthropic, and others are burning cash, subsidizing usage to build market share. Google and Microsoft are the only players using their own cash to grow.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s the circle:<\/strong> Tech giants invest in AI startups. The AI startups pay tech giants for cloud compute. Tech giants book revenue and justify more infrastructure spending. The spending is financed by debt \u2014 and the debt is repaid by lease income from \u2026 the very same AI startups that are burning investor cash.<\/p>\n

The worry: What if someone breaks the circle? <\/strong>If investors stop writing tickets because, say, corporate buyers slow their AI rollouts on the back of slow-to-materialize returns on expensive AI pilot projects? Then it all grinds to a stop: The data centers are still there. AI companies, Big Tech, and others building for them are still saddled with the debt they took on to build-out data centers. And the tenants can\u2019t pay.<\/p>\n

JP Morgan<\/a><\/strong> is (gently) urging caution<\/strong>, Bloomberg<\/a> has a data-packed rundown if you want more, and pieces by both The Atlantic<\/a> and the New York Times<\/a> highlighting a once-obscure company named CoreWeave are must-reads.<\/p>\n

\n

MARKETS THIS MORNING- <\/p>\n

Asian markets tracked Wall Street losses <\/strong>amid the AI-fueled sell-off, with Japan\u2019s Nikkei leading losses, and South Korea\u2019s Kospi following closely behind. Over on Wall Street<\/strong>, futures are hovering near the flatline as investors await inflation data out later today. <\/p>\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

ADX<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

9,953<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.3% (YTD: +5.7%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

DFM<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

6,109<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.0% (YTD: +18.4%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Nasdaq Dubai UAE20<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

4,866<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.5% (YTD: +16.9%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

USD : AED<\/strong> CBUAE<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Buy 3.67<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Sell 3.67<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

EIBOR<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

3.6% o\/n<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

3.7% 1 yr<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

TASI<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

10,414<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.4% (YTD: -13.5%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

EGX30 <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

41,504<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-1.2% (YTD: +39.6%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

S&P 500<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

6,721<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-1.2% (YTD: +14.3%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

FTSE 100<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

9,774<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.9% (YTD: +19.6%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Euro Stoxx 50<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

5,682<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.6% (YTD: +16.1%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Brent crude<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 60.62<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+1.6%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Natural gas <\/strong>(Nymex)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 4.12<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+2.3%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Gold<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 4,359.3<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.3%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

BTC<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 87,484<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-1.7% (YTD: -8.9%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Chimera JP Morgan UAE Bond UCITS ETF<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 3.82<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+1.3% (YTD: +9.7%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

151.72<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.0% (YTD: +8.4%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

VIX (Volatility Index)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

17.62<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+6.9% (YTD: +1.6%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n

THE CLOSING BELL-<\/strong><\/p>\n

The ADX fell 0.3% yesterday<\/strong> on turnover of AED 862 mn. The index is up 5.7% YTD.<\/p>\n

In the green: <\/strong>Orascom Construction (+4.8%), National Bank of Umm Al Qaiwain (+4.2%) and Bank of Sharjah (+3.2%).<\/p>\n

In the red: <\/strong>GFH Financial Group (-6.3%), Hayah Ins. (-2.8%) and Adnoc Drilling (-2.4%). <\/p>\n

Over on the DFM<\/strong>, the index remained flat on turnover of AED 459.5 mn. Meanwhile, Nasdaq Dubai was down 0.5%. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Yesterday\u2019s market selldown is all about the \u201ccircular nature\u201d of AI. Here\u2019s what that means for the normies among us.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":110826,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1553],"tags":[1340,7,50],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-110825","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-planet-finance","tag-ai","tag-enterpriseam-uae","tag-planet-finance","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"61adca5b-82eb-4a2e-be96-d6fd098cc470","order":"11","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2025\/12\/915.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"Wonder why markets are edgy about the \u201ccircular nature\u201d of AI investing? 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