{"id":110367,"date":"2025-12-23T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-12-23T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/uae\/?p=110367"},"modified":"2025-12-23T14:25:24","modified_gmt":"2025-12-23T14:25:24","slug":"is-the-dubai-property-correction-finally-here","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/uae\/2025\/12\/23\/is-the-dubai-property-correction-finally-here\/","title":{"rendered":"Is the Dubai property correction finally here?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Residential property growth (finally) cools, though co<\/strong>mmercial property is still red hot:<\/strong> Official data from Dubai Data and Statistics Establishment confirms what analysts have been saying for months now \u2014 that the property market is entering a cooling phase after several years of outsized gains. <\/p>\n

Annual residential price growth slowed to 7.5% in 3Q 2025, down fro<\/strong>m around 11% in 2Q<\/strong>, according to the data (pdf)<\/a>. The divergence points to a maturing residential cycle even as parts of the commercial market continue to see firm pricing momentum.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s not broad-based:<\/strong> The commercial sector is still showing late-cycle strength, with prices accelerating 13% y-o-y from 10.2% last year, according to separate data (pdf)<\/a>. <\/p>\n

Villas volatile, flats steady: <\/strong>Annual price growth for villas eased to around 9% in 3Q from 18.3% in 2Q, while on a q-o-q basis, prices fell 2.1%, separate DDSE data (pdf)<\/a> shows. Apartment prices showed more stability, rising 6.8% y-o-y and 1.1% q-o-q. The trend held up from 2Q, when \u2014 as we previously reported<\/a> \u2014 villa prices were up 18.3% y-o-y, as opposed to just 7.6% price growth for apartments.<\/p>\n

Commercial property pricing was more nuanced in 3Q.<\/strong> Office prices continued to drive overall growth, with prices up 21.9% y-o-y, pushing the headline commercial index up c.13% y-o-y. <\/p>\n

On a quarterly basis, commercial property prices increased 3.69%<\/strong>, accelerating from 2.2% in 2Q, according to separate DDSE data (pdf)<\/a>. Shops and hotel rooms recorded the weakest momentum in the quarter, while offices and hotel apartments continued to show relative resilience. <\/p>\n

REMEMBER- Oversupply on the residential front is causing market pressures\u2026:<\/strong> As we\u2019ve reported<\/a>, developers face growing supply risks, with over 350k homes registered for delivery between 2026-2030 \u2014 nearly double Dubai\u2019s historical average. Even assuming 70% completion, annual deliveries would average 66k units, creating potential headwinds in districts like Jumeirah Village Circle, Dubai South, Expo City, and Dubailand. <\/p>\n

\u2026while tight supply on the commercial front is driving price moment<\/strong>um: <\/strong>New office supply remains limited, with only some 1 mn sq ft<\/a>of space due by early 2026<\/a> already largely pre-leased, keeping pressure on availability in established business districts. <\/p>\n

\n

Looking ahead<\/p>\n

Analysts expect slower gains in 2026.<\/strong> Knight Frank forecasts prime residential prices rising 3% and mainstream apartments 1%, while Fitch has been forecasting a 10-15% correction. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Residential prices are now falling, while commercial assets are still benefiting from post-pandemic demand normalization and limited near-term stock<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":110368,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2414],"tags":[87,7,98,2413],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-110367","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-the-big-story-today","tag-dubai","tag-enterpriseam-uae","tag-real-estate","tag-the-big-story-today","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"7177bd6f-db17-4676-a8df-06c876fd3c9b","order":"3","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2025\/5\/2409.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"Dubai residential property prices cool as commercial prices continue to rise on tight supply","related_issue":[110362],"teaser":"Residential prices are now falling, while commercial assets are still benefiting from post-pandemic demand normalization and limited near-term stock"},"yoast_head":"\nIs the Dubai property correction finally here? 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