{"id":109773,"date":"2025-11-25T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-11-25T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/uae\/icaew-sees-uaes-gdp-growing-at-5-6-in-2026\/"},"modified":"2025-11-25T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2025-11-25T00:00:00","slug":"icaew-sees-uaes-gdp-growing-at-5-6-in-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/uae\/2025\/11\/25\/icaew-sees-uaes-gdp-growing-at-5-6-in-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"ICAEW sees UAE\u2019s GDP growing at 5.6% in 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"

Th<\/strong>e I<\/strong>CAEW sees<\/strong> the UAE\u2019s economy driving the GCC\u2019s GDP growth in 202<\/strong>6,<\/strong> with our GDP being forecast to accelerate from 4.9% this year to 5.6% in 2026, according to ICAEW\u2019s latest Economic Update Quarterly report<\/a> prepared by Oxford Economics. This will mainly be driven by a robust non-oil sector, especially in areas like tourism, trade and financial services, combined with a pickup in oil output as Opec+ expected in 2H 2026. <\/p>\n

\u201cDespite some moderation in 1H, we expect non-oil GDP to expand by 4.7% this year and cool slightly to a 4.3% expansion in 2026<\/strong>, supported by sustained trade activity, robust consumption, rapid population growth and continued policy-driven diversification,\u201d the report reads. The UAE\u2019s GDP <\/span>grew<\/a> 3.9% in 1Q 2025.<\/span><\/p>\n

Its forecast for this year represents a downward revision by 0.2 percentage points from its previous<\/strong> forecast<\/a><\/strong>,<\/strong> but the report did not mention the reason behind the downgrade. <\/p>\n

How the forecast compares:<\/strong> ICAEW readings match the CBUAE\u2019s<\/a> 2025 forecast of 4.9%, though its forecast for next year is more optimistic than CBUAE\u2019s expectation of 5.3% growth. BMI, however, agrees<\/a> that the UAE\u2019s growth could come in at 5.6% next year, but expects 5.2% growth in 2025, while it penciled in a higher 5.5% growth for the non-oil sector for next year. Meanwhile, the IMF<\/a> and World Bank<\/a> estimate 4.8% growth in 2025 and 5% growth in 2026<\/p>\n

Our oil output is expected to accelerate to 3.41 mn bpd in December<\/strong> and remain at this level until 2H of 2026. It is anticipated to edge up to an average of 4 mn bpd in 2027 thanks to efforts to expand oil production on the back of Adnoc\u2019s push to boost capacity.<\/p>\n

Other factors driving growth:<\/strong> Anticipated growth in 2026 for the UAE is largely fueled by Dubai's <\/a>exceptional 1H growth<\/a>, driven by robust trade and tourism, alongside a slate of comprehensive economic agreements helping boost non-oil trade. <\/p>\n

ICAEW sees inflation averaging 1.9% in 2025 before reaching 2.5% in 2026<\/strong>, slightly higher than the CBUAE\u2019s forecast of 1.8% in 2026, and lower than the IMF and the World Bank\u2019s 2% forecast. While ICAEW sees a drop in energy prices limiting a rise in prices, pressure persists from elevated housing costs, which are expected to linger until more supply becomes available in the coming years.<\/p>\n

The GCC at large: <\/strong>The ICAEW revised down its GCC\u2019s GDP growth for 2026 to 4.4%, down 0.2 percentage points from its previous forecast for the year. It maintains its outlook for 4.1% growth this year. The downward revision is attributed to OPEC+ group\u2019s decision to halt oil pump for the 1Q in 2026 before resuming normal rates of production during 2H in 2026 and throughout 2027. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Inflation is projected to accelerate from 1.9% this year to 2.5% in 2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":109774,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1556],"tags":[157,19,7,20],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-109773","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-central-bank-of-the-uae","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam-uae","tag-gdp","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"514784a0-bf13-438a-bb0e-9a82ff776286","order":"4","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2024\/11\/858.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"ICAEW sees UAE\u2019s GDP growing at 5.6% in 2026","related_issue":[109766],"teaser":"Inflation is projected to accelerate from 1.9% this year to 2.5% in 2026","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2025\/11\/.0f4eb61a-d09e-4e66-85fc-c090d5a43a8b.mp3"},"yoast_head":"\nICAEW sees UAE\u2019s GDP growing at 5.6% in 2026 - 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