{"id":109743,"date":"2025-11-24T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-11-24T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/uae\/the-big-short-part-ii\/"},"modified":"2025-11-24T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2025-11-24T00:00:00","slug":"the-big-short-part-ii","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/uae\/2025\/11\/24\/the-big-short-part-ii\/","title":{"rendered":"The Big Short, Part II?"},"content":{"rendered":"

When it comes to AI, ignore the stock charts \u2014 the real story may be in the <\/strong>amortization schedules. <\/strong>Pundits who spent last week watching the red arrows on the Nasdaq (down 2.7% for the week) may have missed the real story: The sell-off was noise, when the signal is in the accounting.<\/p>\n

What we\u2019re seeing now is the real-time collision between two fundamental views of the AI <\/strong>economy: <\/strong>The \u201cdeployment phase\u201d optimists who see a productivity boom, and \u201ccapex realists\u201d (think: Michael Burry) who see (at best) a hole in the balance sheet that revenue cannot (yet?) fill.<\/span><\/p>\n

The bulls see a deployment dividend on the horizon. <\/strong>The New York Times<\/a> has recently argued that the \u201chype cycle\u201d is coming to an end and the \u201cdeployment cycle\u201d has begun. The argument: AI is no longer a parlor trick \u2014 it\u2019s starting to show up in GDP and output-per-hour data. Bulls claim we\u2019re at the start of a structural shift comparable to electrification or the internet \u2014 but happening at 2x the speed.<\/p>\n

The evidence: <\/strong>The cost of adoption is stabilizing while the efficiency dividend widens, suggesting the path to profitability is clearer than the market thinks.<\/span><\/p>\n

The bears see a capex treadmill \u2014 and maybe some hinky accounting.<\/strong> There\u2019s a flaw in the Internet 2.0 analogy, and it\u2019s in the physics of the infrastructure. When the Dotcom bubble burst, it left behind mns of km of \u201cdark fiber\u201d \u2014 assets with a >20-year useful life that powered the internet for decades at near-zero incremental cost.<\/p>\n

The catch: Today\u2019s AI boom is built on silicon, not glass <\/strong>\u2014 and GPUs have short lifespans. Unlike fiber, GPUs are depreciating assets with \u201cfrontier lifespans\u201d of roughly 3-4 years before energy efficiency gains make them economically obsolete.<\/p>\n

The accounting hijinks: <\/strong>Hyperscalers like Microsoft and Google have quietly extended their server depreciation schedules to 5-6 years to protect current earnings<\/a>. If the hardware becomes obsolete in three years, those earnings are a mirage.<\/p>\n

The \u201cre-buy\u201d problem:<\/strong> As Sequoia\u2019s David Cahn noted last year<\/a>, the industry isn\u2019t just building a railroad \u2014 it\u2019s building a railroad where the tracks dissolve every 48 months. To stay in the game, Big Tech must re-spend its capex budget in perpetuity.<\/p>\n

Famed contrarian Michael Burry (of The Big Short fame) has reportedly placed a <\/strong>USD 1.1<\/a><\/strong>bn wager<\/a><\/strong> against Nvidia and Palantir<\/strong>, warning that the sector is sleepwalking into a crash. His argument mirrors the depreciation thesis: He accuses hyperscalers of inflating earnings by artificially extending the \u201cuseful life\u201d of their servers \u2014 a \u201cdepreciation trick\u201d that boosts profits on paper while the hardware rots in reality.<\/p>\n

The bottom line:<\/strong> If the Times is right, the revenue arrives just in time to pay for the next generation of chips. If it\u2019s wrong, we aren't looking at a bubble, but at the most expensive depreciation write-down in corporate history.<\/p>\n

MARKETS THIS MORNING- <\/p>\n

Asian markets are mixed in early trading this morning<\/strong>, with both the Hang Seng and Kospi up 1.1% and the Shanghai Composite down 0.2%. Meanwhile, Japan\u2019s Nikkei is closed in observance of Labor Thanksgiving Day.<\/p>\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

ADX<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

9,795<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.9% (YTD: +4.0%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

DFM<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

5,836<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-1.3% (YTD: +13.1%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Nasdaq Dubai UAE20<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

4,636<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-2.0% (YTD: +11.3%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

USD : AED<\/strong> CBUAE<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Buy 3.67<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Sell 3.67<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

EIBOR<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

3.6% o\/n<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

3.7% 1 yr<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Tadawul <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

11,011<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

0.0% (YTD: -8.5%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

EGX30<\/strong> <\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

40,446<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.4% (YTD: +36.0%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

S&P 500 <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

6,603<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+1.0% (YTD: +12.3%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

FTSE 100 <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

9,540<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.1% (YTD: +16.7%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Euro Stoxx 50 <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

5,515<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-1.0% (YTD: +12.7%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Brent crude <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 62.27<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.5%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Natural gas (Nymex) <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 4.48<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-2.1%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Gold <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 4,096<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.5%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

BTC <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 86,236<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+1.5% (YTD: -7.7%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Chimera JP Morgan UAE Bond UCITS ETF<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

AED 3.77<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.3% (YTD: +8.2%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

152.18<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.1% (YTD: +8.8%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

VIX (Volatility Index)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

23.43<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-11.3% (YTD: +35.0%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n

THE CLOSING BELL-<\/strong><\/p>\n

The ADX fell 0.9% on Friday<\/strong> on turnover of AED 1.2 bn. The index is up 4% YTD.<\/p>\n

In the green: <\/strong>RAK Co. for White Cement & Construction Materials (+5.0%), Agthia Group (+2.9%) and Aram Group (+2.6%).<\/p>\n

In the red: <\/strong>Ins. House (-9.8%), ADCB Rights Issue 2025 (-7.2%) and Eshraq Investments (-5.1%). <\/p>\n

Over on the DFM<\/strong>, the index fell 1.3% on turnover of AED 525 mn. Meanwhile, Nasdaq Dubai was down 2.0%.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Bulls see AI hype giving way to a new \u201cdeployment phase\u201d \u2014 but bears see an accounting mirage that could lead to one of the most expensive write-downs in corporate history<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":109744,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1553],"tags":[610,7,48,50],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-109743","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-planet-finance","tag-artificial-intelligence","tag-enterpriseam-uae","tag-financial-markets","tag-planet-finance","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"afc96539-8541-4906-ad1b-4353ba6721a6","order":"12","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2025\/11\/1776.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"Is AI being built on dissolving tracks?","related_issue":[109722],"teaser":"Bulls see AI hype giving way to a new \u201cdeployment phase\u201d \u2014 but bears see an accounting mirage that could lead to one of the most expensive write-downs in corporate history","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2025\/11\/.0b606af9-7e62-401e-b1a7-e7cf13dc063b.mp3"},"yoast_head":"\nThe Big Short, Part II? 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