{"id":108177,"date":"2025-10-06T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-10-06T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/uae\/imf-upgrades-uaes-2025-growth-forecast-on-oil-rebound-and-non-oil-momentum-moodys-affirms-uae-abu-dhabis-aa2-ratings\/"},"modified":"2025-10-06T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2025-10-06T00:00:00","slug":"imf-upgrades-uaes-2025-growth-forecast-on-oil-rebound-and-non-oil-momentum-moodys-affirms-uae-abu-dhabis-aa2-ratings","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/uae\/2025\/10\/06\/imf-upgrades-uaes-2025-growth-forecast-on-oil-rebound-and-non-oil-momentum-moodys-affirms-uae-abu-dhabis-aa2-ratings\/","title":{"rendered":"IMF upgrades UAE\u2019s 2025 growth forecast on oil rebound and non-oil momentum + Moody\u2019s affirms UAE, Abu Dhabi\u2019s Aa2 ratings"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"> <strong>The International Monetary Fund (IMF) now expects the UAE\u2019s economy to <\/strong><strong>grow <\/strong><strong>4.8% in 2025<\/strong>, up from its <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/uae\/en\/news\/story\/261164f9-698a-4536-8e53-af67349d9b67\/%253cmark%253eimf%253c%2Fmark%253e-maintains-the-uae%25e2%2580%2599s-gdp-growth-forecast-at-4%2525\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">4% forecast in April<\/a>, placing the UAE among the region\u2019s fastest-growing economies this year, according to its latest <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.imf.org\/en\/News\/Articles\/2025\/10\/02\/pr-25326-united-arab-emirates-imf-staff-completes-2025-article-iv-mission\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">mission statement<\/a>. The upgrade reflects a recovery in hydrocarbon activity thanks to higher oil output as Opec+ production ramps up, and continued momentum across non-oil sectors including tourism, construction, and financial services.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong style=\"background-color: transparent;\">The Fund kept its 2026 growth forecast unchanged at 5%<\/strong><span style=\"background-color: transparent;\">, similarly supported by both higher hydrocarbon output, \u201crobust non-hydrocarbon growth,\u201d and large-scale infrastructure projects.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>Inflation easing, buffers intact: <\/strong>Inflation is now expected to come in at 1.6% this year, down from the Fund\u2019s earlier 2.1% estimate, before stabilizing around 2% over the medium term. Real estate costs are once again set to be the main cause of price pressures, while tradables stay subdued. The Fund said risks to the outlook are \u201cbroadly balanced,\u201d underpinned by the UAE\u2019s sustained economic diversification agenda and large sovereign buffers.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>Fiscal and external surpluses are expected to stay strong<\/strong>, \u201cproviding ample buffers [\u2026] to respond to adverse shocks.\u201d The non-hydrocarbon primary deficit is narrowing faster than anticipated, supported by the rollout of the corporate tax and other indirect levies. The IMF again called for greater coordination between federal and emirate-level budgets to enhance policy consistency.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>The banking sector remains \u201cstrong and sound,\u201d<\/strong> backed by double-digit deposit growth, improving asset quality, and conservative lending practices. The Fund cited new safeguards including the <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/uae\/en\/news\/story\/b03e925b-b988-4a78-9027-b0de6e20217d\/consumer-loans-up-55%2525-from-2021-levels-this-year--s&amp;p-global\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">countercyclical capital buffer<\/a> and the Financial Stability Council, and <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/uae\/en\/news\/story\/0b5eb1dd-187f-41c9-af6e-3325f30128f4\/this-morning:-masdar-inches-closer-to-agreement-for-1-gw-solar-project-in-iraq-%2B-happy-eid-al-fitr,-everyone\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">progress on the Digital AED<\/a>, <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/uae\/en\/news\/story\/61b36c93-cd65-448d-93fa-5ac588daaaca\/fsra-issues%253cmark%253e-stablecoin%253c%2Fmark%253e-framework\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">stablecoin regulations<\/a>, and capital-market reforms as signs of steady modernization amid prudent risk management. Banks\u2019 reduced exposure to the real estate sector was flagged as positive, however the IMF also cited risks associated with real estate tokenization projects.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>ICYMI- How this stacks up: <\/strong>The IMF\u2019s new projection brings its outlook closer to that of other institutions. The CBUAE expects GDP to grow <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/uae\/en\/news\/story\/89c2ba70-cf56-4076-b3a5-0851113adeb0\/cbuae-lifts%253cmark%253e-gdp%253c%2Fmark%253e-forecast-this-year-to-4.9%2525-on-higher-oil-production-and-non-oil-momentum\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">4.9% in 2025<\/a>, while the ICAEW forecasts growth of <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/uae\/en\/news\/story\/d79067b6-cf39-4d03-9b0d-aea1c3b52e0a\/icaew-maintains-uae%25e2%2580%2599s-economic-growth-forecast,-revises-downwards-its-gcc-forecast\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">5.1%<\/a>, supported by a 4.7% non-oil expansion. Standard Chartered also sees <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/uae\/en\/news\/story\/10f66dfa-a9b8-425f-8f92-6b6b60068b24\/this-morning:-president-mohamed-bin-zayed-al-nahyan-kicks-off-russia-visit-%2B-pakistan-mart-is-coming\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">5% growth<\/a>, compared to Fitch Solutions\u2019 <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/uae\/en\/news\/story\/f03ad98c-a477-4024-ade0-9d019a0922f6\/bmi-trims-its-growth-forecast-for-the-uae-to-4.3%2525-in-2025\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">BMI at 4.3%<\/a>. <\/p>\n<p class=\"tag-border-left\">IN OTHER ECONOMY NEWS- <\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>Moody\u2019s maintained the UAE and Abu Dhabi\u2019s sovereign ratings at Aa2 with a <\/strong><strong>stable <\/strong><strong>outlook<\/strong>, citing strong state institutions, high per capita income, and robust oil reserves with 70 years worth of supply, <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.alkhaleej.ae\/2025-10-03\/%D9%85%D9%88%D8%AF%D9%8A%D8%B2-%D8%AA%D8%A4%D9%83%D8%AF-%D8%AA%D8%B5%D9%86%D9%8A%D9%81%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A5%D9%85%D8%A7%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D9%88%D8%A3%D8%A8%D9%88%D8%B8%D8%A8%D9%8A-%D8%B9%D9%86%D8%AF-aa2-%D9%85%D8%B9-%D9%86%D8%B8%D8%B1%D8%A9-%D9%85%D8%B3%D8%AA%D9%82%D8%A8%D9%84%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D9%85%D8%B3%D8%AA%D9%82%D8%B1%D8%A9-6111796\/%D8%A3%D8%B3%D9%88%D8%A7%D9%82\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">Al Khaleej<\/a> reports. The agency said these fundamentals underpin the economy\u2019s resilience and support continued diversification away from hydrocarbons.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>Fiscal strength: <\/strong>Moody\u2019s highlighted the UAE\u2019s solid public finances as a key driver of credit stability. Federal debt remains among the lowest globally at around 3% of GDP in 2024, rising modestly to 3.5% by 2027 amid bond and sukuk issuances to develop the local debt market. Abu Dhabi\u2019s fiscal surplus stood at 7% of GDP last year, supported by high oil revenues and large financial assets that continue to anchor sovereign strength.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>Economic outlook: <\/strong>The agency expects the non-oil sector to grow 4-5% between 2025 and 2026, supported by projects such as the Etihad Rail network \u2014 set to link the UAE with other GCC states \u2014 and <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/uae\/en\/news\/story\/b7e48c15-ed9e-4d05-88fa-18aa9201e19a\/this-morning:-wall-street-perks-now-in-demand-across-uae-funds-amid-cutthroat-competition-%2B-adnoc-distribution-plans-ksa-expansion\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">the unified Gulf visa launching in 2026<\/a>, which should bolster tourism and investment flows.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Fund kept its 2026 growth forecast unchanged at 5%<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":108178,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1556],"tags":[19,7,20,594,285,386],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-108177","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam-uae","tag-gdp","tag-imf","tag-inflation","tag-moodys","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"845a822d-d288-475c-bf15-e8b0ef5e3e0c","order":"4","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2025\/10\/254.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"IMF upgrades UAE\u2019s growth forecast to 4.8%, citing oil rebound and non-oil strength + Moody\u2019s affirms UAE, Abu Dhabi\u2019s Aa2 ratings","related_issue":[108170],"teaser":"The Fund kept its 2026 growth forecast unchanged at 5%","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2025\/10\/.1337f1e3-c82f-401a-8eb6-319aef36646d.mp3"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.1 (Yoast SEO v27.1.1) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>IMF upgrades UAE\u2019s 2025 growth forecast on oil rebound and non-oil momentum + Moody\u2019s affirms UAE, Abu Dhabi\u2019s Aa2 ratings - UAE<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/uae\/2025\/10\/06\/imf-upgrades-uaes-2025-growth-forecast-on-oil-rebound-and-non-oil-momentum-moodys-affirms-uae-abu-dhabis-aa2-ratings\/\" 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