{"id":107738,"date":"2025-09-23T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-09-23T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/uae\/this-morning-signs-of-cracks-in-dubais-property-market-start-to-show-a-flurry-of-debt-activity-with-issuances-from-aldar-binghatti\/"},"modified":"2025-09-23T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2025-09-23T00:00:00","slug":"this-morning-signs-of-cracks-in-dubais-property-market-start-to-show-a-flurry-of-debt-activity-with-issuances-from-aldar-binghatti","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/uae\/2025\/09\/23\/this-morning-signs-of-cracks-in-dubais-property-market-start-to-show-a-flurry-of-debt-activity-with-issuances-from-aldar-binghatti\/","title":{"rendered":"THIS MORNING: Signs of cracks in Dubai\u2019s property market start to show? + A flurry of debt activity with issuances from Aldar, Binghatti"},"content":{"rendered":"

Good morning, friends. <\/strong>It\u2019s a busy morning here at home, with several big-ticket M&As announced along with reports on FDI pouring into Dubai in 1H 2025, and the state of the UAE\u2019s construction pipeline. There\u2019s also a big real estate<\/strong> theme in today\u2019s issue, with Arada acquiring a London developer, Binghatti and Aldar Properties lining up fresh issuances, and more. <\/p>\n

Plus:<\/strong> Masdar is developing a new solar plant in Oman as part of a consortium, and Nvidia is opening up its first Middle East AI Technology Center in the UAE as part of a partnership with the Technology Institute of Innovation. Let\u2019s dive in. <\/p>\n

<\/a> BUT FIRST- As we inch closer to the end of the year, speculation around the trajectory o<\/strong>f property prices in Dubai is only growing louder.<\/strong> Several have forecast a modest correction in prices as soon as this year, and there are signs that the property market is already showing cracks. <\/p>\n

Speculative investors are struggling to <\/strong>offload unfinished homes bought for quick resa<\/strong>le<\/strong>, brokers told the Financial Times<\/a>. Resales of unbuilt units slid to 20% of total resales in July, down from about a third earlier this year, according to Property Monitor data picked up by FT. Some investors have gone months without a single bid, with analysts warning many were sold \u201ca false promise of easy money.\u201d<\/p>\n

Prices are now 25% above their 2014 peak \u2014 with the emirate set to surpass its<\/strong> longest ever bull run \u2014 with 57 consecutive monthly increases \u2014 in just a few weeks <\/strong>if October figures show more signs of growth. <\/strong>But supply is swelling fast, with some 93k new units \u2014 mostly apartments \u2014 entering the market so far this year, and another 250k expected by 2027<\/a>. Fitch projects a 15%<\/a> drop in prices in 2H 2025, while Moody\u2019s sees<\/a> a modest correction beginning in 2026.<\/p>\n

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ALSO- The region\u2019s first thematic ETF hit the ADX yesterday, courtesy of Lunate. <\/strong>Boreas Solactive Quantum Computing Ucits ETF, the first thematic ETF in the region, rang the opening bell on the ADX yesterday under the ticker QUANTM, according to a press release (pdf)<\/a>. Launched by ADGM-based asset manager Lunate, the fund tracks an index of 25 global quantum computing firms<\/a> including Alphabet, Amazon, IBM, Microsoft, and Nvidia. The index has delivered 29.4% in compounded annual growth since 2017.<\/p>\n

DATA POINT- <\/strong>The listing brings the total number of ETFs on ADX to 17 and is only the second to debut on the exchange this year. The market cap attributed to ADX-listed ETFs has doubled y-o-y to about AED 1.7 bn by end-August.<\/p>\n

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WEATHER- Temperatures are on their way down<\/strong>, with the mercury set to peak at 36\u00b0C in Dubai<\/strong>, before cooling to an overnight low of 30\u00b0C. Abu Dhabi<\/strong> is still on the warmer side, with the mercury rising to 40\u00b0C before cooling to 29\u00b0C overnight. <\/p>\n

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<\/a> <\/p>\n

WATCH THIS SPACE- <\/p>\n

<\/a> #1- Binghatti lines up banks for fresh green paper: <\/strong>Dubai-based developer and IPO-hopeful<\/a> Binghatti Holding tapped banks for a planned USD-denominated Reg S-compliant senior unsecured green sukuk with a three-year tenor, Zawya<\/a> reports. The sale will be issued under Binghatti\u2019s USD 1.5 bn trust certificate program. Investor calls and roadshows are already underway. <\/p>\n

ICYMI- <\/strong>Just last month, the firm, rated Ba3 by Moody\u2019s and BB- by Fitch, sold USD 500 mn<\/a> worth of five-year sukuk that was listed on Nasdaq Dubai and the London Stock Exchange. The developer closed two sukuk issuances last year raising a total of USD 500 mn. <\/p>\n

ADVISORS- <\/strong>Our friends at Mashreq<\/strong> are the sole green structurer, and are quarterbacking the transaction as global coordinators alongside Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank<\/strong>, Dubai Islamic Bank<\/strong>, Emirates NBD Capital<\/strong>, and JP Morgan<\/strong>. Meanwhile, Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank<\/strong>, Ajman Bank<\/strong>, Arqaam Capital<\/strong>, Cr\u00e9dit Agricole CIB,<\/strong> First Abu Dhabi Bank<\/strong>, Rakbank<\/strong>, Sharjah Islamic Bank<\/strong> and Warba<\/strong> Bank are serving as joint leads and bookrunners. <\/p>\n

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<\/a> ALSO FROM DEBT MARKETS-<\/strong> #2- Al<\/strong>dar Investment Properties is reopening tw<\/strong>o of its outstanding green sukuk<\/strong>, with two taps of USD 145 mn each for its USD 500 mn green trust certificates for 2034 and 2035, Zawya<\/a> reports. The sukuk, structured as senior unsecured Reg S Wakala\/Murabaha, was priced yesterday, with some USD 1 bn in orders coming in, IFR<\/a> reports. The pricing has not yet been made public, but it was likely tightened from initial price thoughts of 103.375% for the 2034 notes and 101.250% for the 2035 paper, given the strong demand. <\/p>\n

The notes will be listed on Euronext Dublin and the ADX.<\/strong> Aldar is rated Baa1 with a stable outlook by Moody\u2019s.<\/p>\n

Aldar last tapped the debt market in March<\/strong>, selling a USD 500 mn<\/a> green sukuk at a 5.25% coupon in an offering that was 7.2x oversubscribed. That came shortly after the group closed a record AED 9 bn sustainability-linked revolving credit facility in January, the largest syndicated loan of its kind secured by a MENA developer.<\/p>\n

ADVISORS- <\/strong>Aldar appointed First Abu Dhabi Bank (FAB) <\/strong>and Standard Chartered Bank<\/strong> as joint green structurers, with Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank<\/strong>, Emirates NBD Capital<\/strong>, FAB<\/strong>, JP Morgan<\/strong> and Standard Chartered Bank<\/strong> acting as joint leads and bookrunners.<\/p>\n

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<\/a> #3- G42-backed Kenya data center delayed: <\/strong>A USD 1 bn geothermal-powered data center in Kenya \u2014 announced in 2024 by Abu Dhabi\u2019s G42 and Microsoft<\/a> \u2014 has yet to break ground, Semafor<\/a> reports, citing a tech infrastructure financier involved in the project. The Olkaria facility was due to go live in May 2026, but remains untouched as developers struggle to find a viable business case and demand for Microsoft\u2019s cloud services. The agreement came together \u201cin a very geopolitical way,\u201d rather than on commercial logic, the financier said, <\/p>\n

REFRESHER- <\/strong>G42 and Microsoft launched the project last year to drive digitalization and AI adoption in East Africa. It was to serve as a new East Africa cloud region offering Microsoft Azure within two years of signing definitive agreements.<\/p>\n

This isn\u2019t the only G42-linked project facing delays:<\/strong> The planned 5 GW AI campus in the UAE \u2014 centerpiece of a USD 200 bn US-UAE investment pact<\/a> \u2014 is also \u201cfar from finalized,\u201d with security concerns<\/a> over Chinese tech access slowing progress. The first phase, Stargate UAE, is due in 2026<\/a> and would host American-managed services<\/a> powered by Nvidia\u2019s GB300 chips, with Dubai\u2019s Khazna Data Centers building next-gen data halls<\/a> to support the Blackwell architecture.<\/p>\n

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#4- India\u2019s ClearTax <\/strong>plans to be among the first e-invoice providers in the UAE:<\/strong> Indian fintech ClearTax will invest AED 184 mn to get involved in the first phase of the UAE\u2019s electronic invoicing system, which is set to be rolled out in July 2026, Al Khaleej<\/a> quotes CEO Arshat Gupta as saying. It is targeting more than 600k VAT-registered companies in the UAE, as well as nearly 1.5 mn firms in the wider region.<\/p>\n

REMEMBER- <\/strong>The Finance Ministry has been gearing up to launch an e-invoicing system<\/a> in 2026 after amending tax and VAT regulations. Businesses will be required to issue invoices and credit notes electronically and maintain digital records as part of a phased rollout. <\/p>\n

About the company:<\/strong> ClearTax specializes in providing AI-powered tax and compliance solutions to large enterprises, such as e-invoicing, tax filing, digital payments, accounts automation, and supply chain financing. It serves more than 5k enterprises worldwide, processing over USD 500 bn in invoices annually. <\/p>\n

DATA POINT- <\/p>\n

Gross bank assets grew 1.0% m-o-m to AED 5.0 tn in July<\/strong>, according to the Central Bank of the UAE\u2019s latest monetary and banking developments report (pdf)<\/a>. Gross credit rose 1.4% to AED 2.4 tn, supported by AED 21 bn in domestic credit and AED 10.9 bn in foreign credit. Within domestic credit, lending to the government sector increased by 5.2%, while government-related entities saw lending grow 1.5%, and the private sector saw lending increase by 0.5%. Lending to non-banking financial institutions grew 2.5%.<\/p>\n

Total bank deposits increased 1.1% m-o-m to AED <\/strong>3 tn<\/strong>, as resident deposits rose 1.1% to AED 2.8 tn and non-resident deposits grew 1.0% to AED 259.7 bn. Within resident deposits, deposits from government-related entities climbed 5.0%, government deposits rose 2.9%, and private sector deposits increased 0.7%, while deposits from non-banking financial institutions fell 11.1%.<\/p>\n

PSA- <\/p>\n

Emirate<\/strong>s cancelled several flights to Hong Kong and Shenzhen in China<\/strong> as the cities are set to be hit by a cyclone today and tomorrow, according to a travel update<\/a>. So far, flights today, tomorrow, and on Thursday have been cancelled, with other regional and international airlines also stopping flights in anticipation of the extreme weather.<\/p>\n

HAPPENING TODAY-<\/p>\n

#1- FM <\/strong>attends UN General<\/strong> Asse<\/strong>mbly in New York: <\/strong>Foreign Minister Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan is in New York for the UN General Assembly, which started yesterday and will run until next Monday, 29 September, according to a Foreign Ministry statement<\/a>. The summit is expected to be dominated by discussions around the ongoing war in Gaza, with several countries \u2014 including the UK, France, and Canada \u2014 formally recognizing Palestine as a state, and Saudi Arabia and France set to co-chair meetings on the two-state solution. <\/p>\n

#2- The <\/strong>South African State-Owned Enterprises Investment and Cooperation Summit<\/a><\/strong> kicked off yesterday<\/strong> and runs until Wednesday <\/strong>at the Waldorf Astoria in Dubai International Financial Center. The three-day summit \u2014 which is hosted by African bank Standard Bank \u2014 will connect South African state-owned enterprises with investors in the UAE and wider Gulf region, as well as sovereign wealth funds and large corporations, in a bid to boost the country\u2019s trade and infrastructure development. <\/p>\n

#3- <\/strong>The <\/strong>MENA EV Show<\/a><\/strong> is taking place today and tomorrow <\/strong>at The Agenda in Dubai Media City. The show will connect stakeholders in the global EV value chain \u2014 from small startups to investors, governments, and auto manufacturers \u2014 to showcase the EV industry\u2019s latest technologies.<\/p>\n

#4- The <\/strong>Future Food Forum<\/a><\/strong> is on<\/strong> today and tomorrow <\/strong>at Le M\u00e9ridien Dubai Hotel and Conference Center. Organized by the UAE Food and Beverage Manufacturers Group, the event brings together government officials, global food producers, and industry leaders to discuss supply chain resilience, trade windows under the UAE\u2019s economic agreements, and adopting new technologies in food manufacturing. <\/p>\n

HAPPENING THIS WEEK- <\/p>\n

#<\/strong>1- The <\/strong>Mohammed Bin Rashid Leaders Forum<\/a><\/strong> will take place on Wednesday<\/strong> and Thursday <\/strong>in Dubai<\/strong>, at the Mohammed Bin Rashid Center for Leadership Development. The forum brings together 1k government and private sector leaders for discussions, workshops, and lectures aimed at shaping future leadership models, proactive strategic thinking, and governance management. <\/p>\n

#2- <\/strong>Dubai World Congress for Self-Driving Transport<\/a><\/strong> is also happening on Wednesday<\/strong> and <\/strong>Thursday at the Dubai World Trade Center.<\/strong> Hosted by the Roads and Transport Authority, the congress will see tech experts, policy makers, investors, government officials, and international and regional autonomous mobility firms meet for two days of seminars, panels, and exhibitions.<\/p>\n

THE BIG STORY ABROAD- <\/p>\n

One story is on every single front page this morning: <\/strong>Nvidia will invest up to USD 100 bn in OpenAI in a potential transaction executives hailed as the \u201cnext leap forward\u201d in artificial intelligence \u2014 the two sides announced<\/a> the letter of intent last night. If the transaction proceeds as planned, it would mark the largest-ever investment in a private company. As part of the agreement, OpenAI will buy 10 GW-worth of Nvidia AI processors to power its AI infrastructure and train its next generation of models. Nvidia shares closed up 3.9% following the announcement. (Bloomberg<\/a> | Reuters<\/a> | The Guardian<\/a> | BBC<\/a> | CNBC<\/a> | New York Times<\/a> | Financial Times<\/a>)<\/p>\n

ALSO MAKING HEADLINES-<\/strong> Russian President Vladimir Putin said that Moscow could continue to adhere to the New START nuclear accord beyond its February 2026 expiry \u2014 but only if Washington reciprocates \u2014 offering what he called \u201cvoluntary, self-imposed restrictions.\u201d The treaty caps each side at 1.55k deployed nuclear warheads and 700 delivery vehicles, and its approaching expiration date has raised fears of an arms race. (Reuters<\/a> | New York Times<\/a> | Washington Post<\/a> | Bloomberg<\/a>)<\/p>\n

PLUS-<\/strong> Jimmy Kimmel Live will return to ABC tonight after nearly a week off the air, ending a suspension<\/a> that sparked fierce debate over political pressure on broadcasters. Disney said it spent several days in talks with Kimmel before reversing course. (Axios<\/a> | BBC<\/a> | Associated Press<\/a> | CNBC<\/a> | New York Times<\/a> | The Guardian<\/a> | Reuters<\/a>)<\/p>\n

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***<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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