{"id":107651,"date":"2025-09-19T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-09-19T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/uae\/cbuae-lifts-gdp-forecast-this-year-to-4-9-on-higher-oil-production-and-non-oil-momentum\/"},"modified":"2025-09-19T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2025-09-19T00:00:00","slug":"cbuae-lifts-gdp-forecast-this-year-to-4-9-on-higher-oil-production-and-non-oil-momentum","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/uae\/2025\/09\/19\/cbuae-lifts-gdp-forecast-this-year-to-4-9-on-higher-oil-production-and-non-oil-momentum\/","title":{"rendered":"CBUAE lifts GDP forecast this year to 4.9% on higher oil production and non-oil momentum"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Central Bank of the UAE (CBUAE) now expects real GDP to grow 4<\/strong>.9% in <\/strong>2025<\/strong>, up from a 4.4% projection in June<\/a>, according to its latest Quarterly Economic Review (pdf)<\/a>. The revision, which comes on the back of momentum in the non-oil sector and higher oil production, reverses a downgrade from June, when the central bank had cut its 2025 forecast to 4.4% from 4.7% due to weaker global economic activity and lower oil prices. <\/p>\n

Growth is forecast to accelerate to 5.3% in 2026<\/strong> \u2014 slightly below the 5.4% projected earlier.<\/span><\/p>\n

Hydrocarbons are to thank: <\/strong>Hydrocarbon GDP is forecast to rise 5.8% in 2025 \u2014 up significantly from an earlier forecast of 4.1% \u2014 and 6.5% in 2026, after stagnating at just 1% in 2024. The forecast comes after Opec+ last month approved<\/a> an oil production increase of 547k bbl \/ d for September, wrapping up its supply restoration strategy ahead of schedule. The hike reverses the bloc\u2019s 2.2 mn bbl \/ d cut from in 2023, and also allows the UAE a 300k bbl \/ d quota increase ahead of schedule. <\/p>\n

A boost from steady non-oil momentum as well:<\/strong> The CBUAE maintained its forecast for non-hydrocarbon GDP this year at 4.5%, while revising up next year\u2019s forecast to 4.8% from 4.5% earlier. It attributed the upward revision to expectations of indirect tailwinds from rising oil production, including higher investment, government spending, and growing confidence in the economy. <\/p>\n

REMEMBER- <\/strong>The non-oil sector grew 5.3% y-o-y<\/a> in 1Q, led by manufacturing, financial services, construction, and real estate. PMI data<\/a> shows an uptick in output levels despite softening new orders, with trade and tourism being key growth drivers. Meanwhile, non-oil foreign trade jumped 24% y-o-y<\/a> to nearly AED 1.7 tn in 1H 2025, with exports up 44.7% to a record AED 369.5 bn, accounting for 21.4% of total non-oil trade. Trade made up the largest share of non-oil GDP in 1Q 2025 at 15.6%<\/a>, with the sector now on track to hit AED 4 tn<\/a> by 2027 \u2014 four years ahead of the original 2031 target.<\/p>\n

Inflation easing: <\/strong>Headline inflation stood at 0.6% y-o-y in 2Q, down from 1.4% in 1Q as energy costs dropped. The CBUAE cut its 2025 inflation forecast to 1.5%, from 1.9%, on the back of falling food and transport costs<\/a>. Inflation is expected to edge up to 1.8% in 2026, with the rise coming primarily from the impact of base effects.<\/p>\n

How CBUAE\u2019s forecast compares: <\/strong>The CBUAE\u2019s 4.9% projection is broadly in line with Standard Chartered\u2019s 5%<\/a> forecast for 2025, but above Fitch Solutions\u2019 BMI (4.3%)<\/a> and the IMF (4%)<\/a>. Further ahead, Standard Chartered expects growth to moderate to 4% in the following two years.<\/p>\n

Regional outlook: <\/strong>The CBUAE sees GCC growth rising to 3.6% in 2025, up from 2.2% in 2024, before accelerating to 4.3% in 2026. That marks an upward revision from June, when the central bank had projected 3.2% growth in 2025, though its 2026 forecast is unchanged.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Growth is forecast to accelerate to 5.3% in 2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":107652,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1556],"tags":[157,19,7,20,285,266,387,1334],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-107651","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-central-bank-of-the-uae","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam-uae","tag-gdp","tag-inflation","tag-oil-and-gas","tag-tourism","tag-trade","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"89c2ba70-cf56-4076-b3a5-0851113adeb0","order":"3","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2024\/1\/2590.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"CBUAE upgrades 2025 GDP forecast to 4.9% on oil rebound, easing inflation","related_issue":[107646],"teaser":"Growth is forecast to accelerate to 5.3% in 2026","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2025\/9\/.e2ca896a-5fb6-460b-9d04-4457932efd5b.mp3"},"yoast_head":"\nCBUAE lifts GDP forecast this year to 4.9% on higher oil production and non-oil momentum - 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