{"id":106057,"date":"2025-07-30T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-07-30T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/uae\/lower-than-expected-tariffs-and-weaker-usd-prop-up-imfs-global-growth-outlook\/"},"modified":"2025-07-30T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2025-07-30T00:00:00","slug":"lower-than-expected-tariffs-and-weaker-usd-prop-up-imfs-global-growth-outlook","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/uae\/2025\/07\/30\/lower-than-expected-tariffs-and-weaker-usd-prop-up-imfs-global-growth-outlook\/","title":{"rendered":"Lower-than-expected tariffs and weaker USD prop up IMF\u2019s global growth outlook"},"content":{"rendered":"

The IMF revises global growth forecast upwards: <\/strong>The International Monetary Fund (IMF) now forecasts global growth to reach 3.0% in 2025, a 0.2 percentage point upgrade from its previous estimate in April, it said in its latest World Economic Outlook report (pdf)<\/a>. The fund expects growth to slightly accelerate to 3.1% in 2026, revising up its previous estimate by 0.1 percentage point.<\/p>\n

Behind the upgrade:<\/strong> The upward revision came on the back of stronger-than-expected front-loading of economic activity by firms and households in anticipation of higher tariffs, the fund said. The revision is also supported by lower average US tariff rates than were initially assumed in April. \u201cAt the time of the April forecast we had an effective tariff rate of 24%. We\u2019re now looking at an effective tariff rate of 17%, [...] still much higher than where we were in January,\u201d IMF\u2019s chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas told <\/span>the Financial Times<\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

A weaker USD had also helped the outlook:<\/strong> The USD is down by some 9% in the year-to-date against a basket of currencies including the EUR and the GBP, mainly due to the trade war and attacks on the Federal Reserve, Gourinchas added.<\/p>\n

Major economies saw modest upgrades:<\/strong> The IMF now expects the US to grow 1.9% in 2025, a 0.1 percentage point upgrade from the previous forecast. Meanwhile, Japan\u2019s 2025 growth was revised up by 0.1 percentage point to 0.7%. The fund also upgraded its forecast for Canada\u2019s growth by 0.2 percentage points to 1.6% and for the UK by 0.1 percentage point to 1.2%.<\/p>\n

China and India also see stronger outlooks:<\/strong> China\u2019s 2025 outlook got a significant upgrade by 0.8 percentage points to 4.8%, reflecting stronger-than-expected activity in the first half of the year and a significant reduction in US-China tariffs. Meanwhile, India\u2019s growth forecast was revised slightly upward to 6.4% for both 2025 and 2026 due to a more benign external environment.<\/p>\n

Across the Atlantic:<\/strong> Growth in the Eurozone is now projected at 1.0% in 2025, an upward revision of 0.2 percentage points, mainly driven by a strong GDP outturn in Ireland, which was boosted by front-loading of pharma exports to the US. The IMF projects 1.2% growth for the area in 2026, unchanged from April.<\/p>\n

Trade distortions cloud the picture:<\/strong> Global trade volumes are now expected to grow 2.6% in 2025, a 0.9 percentage point upgrade from April, due to the front-loading of trade flows ahead of anticipated restrictions. However, this effect is expected to fade, with a \"payback\" materializing through 2026, leading to a 0.6 percentage point downgrade in the 2026 trade volume forecast, where it\u2019s expected to log 1.9% increase, the fund said.<\/p>\n

A hazy horizon: <\/strong>The IMF warns that the outlook is marked by \"tenuous resilience amid persistent uncertainty,\" with risks tilted to the downside. An escalation of protectionist measures could dampen global growth. However, growth prospects could improve if trade negotiations lead to a predictable framework and a decline in tariffs.<\/p>\n

The inflation outlook:<\/strong> Global headline inflation is expected to continue its decline over the next two years, falling to 4.2% in 2025 and 3.6% in 2026. This forecast is \"virtually unchanged\" from the April report. However, the report notes cross-country differences, with inflation projected to remain above target in the US while being more subdued in other big economies.<\/p>\n

MARKETS THIS MORNING-<\/p>\n

It\u2019s another mixed morning for Asian markets<\/strong>, as investors await for updates on US-China trade talks. The Shanghai Composite is up 0.4%, while Hong Kong\u2019s Hang Seng is down 0.5%, and Japan\u2019s Nikkei is unchanged. US investors are also bracing for the Fed\u2019s decision today, leaving Wall Street futures unchanged.<\/p>\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

ADX<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

10,342<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.2% (YTD: +9.8%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

DFM<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

6,178<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.2% (YTD: +19.7%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Nasdaq Dubai UAE20<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

5,133<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.3% (YTD: +23.3%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

USD : AED<\/strong> CBUAE<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Buy 3.67<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Sell 3.67<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

EIBOR<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

4.1% o\/n<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

4.1% 1 yr<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

TASI<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

10,824<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.6% (YTD: -10.2%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

EGX30 <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

34,086<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.0% (YTD: +14.6%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

S&P 500<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

6,371<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.3% (YTD: +8.3%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

FTSE 100<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

9,136<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.6% (YTD: +11.8%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Euro Stoxx 50<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

5,379<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.8% (YTD: +9.9%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Brent crude<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 72.51<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+3.5%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Natural gas (Nymex) <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 3.08<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+3.1%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Gold<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 3,384<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

0.0%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

BTC<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 117,571<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.2% (YTD: +25.7%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Chimera JP Morgan UAE Bond UCITS ETF<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

AED 3.58<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.6% (YTD: +0.4%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

146.42<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.2% (YTD: +4.6%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

VIX (Volatility Index)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

15.98<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+6.3% (YTD: -7.9%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n

THE CLOSING BELL-<\/strong><\/p>\n

The ADX fell 0.2% yesterday<\/strong> on turnover of AED 1.4 bn. The index is up 9.8% YTD.<\/p>\n

In the green: <\/strong>Commercial Bank International (+12.2%), Americana Restaurants International (+1.8%) and Emirates Driving Company (+1.4%).<\/p>\n

In the red: <\/strong>Rapco Investment (-9.2%), E7 Group Warrants (-6.8%) and Aram Group (-4.5%). <\/p>\n

Over on the DFM<\/strong>, the index rose 0.2% on turnover of AED 770.6 mn. Meanwhile, Nasdaq Dubai was down 0.3%.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The outlook is marked by \"tenuous resilience amid persistent uncertainty\"<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":106058,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1553],"tags":[7,48,50],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-106057","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-planet-finance","tag-enterpriseam-uae","tag-financial-markets","tag-planet-finance","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"1b0fb5d1-cf1b-4004-8a57-4919c6ea7502","order":"11","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2025\/4\/1461.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"Lower-than-expected tariffs and weaker USD prop up IMF\u2019s global growth outlook","related_issue":[106038],"teaser":"The outlook is marked by \"tenuous resilience amid persistent uncertainty\"","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2025\/7\/.521e1506-e714-4835-986a-653cd0f7955e.mp3"},"yoast_head":"\nLower-than-expected tariffs and weaker USD prop up IMF\u2019s global growth outlook - 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