{"id":104940,"date":"2025-06-25T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-06-25T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/uae\/fitch-affirms-uae-and-abu-dhabis-long-term-default-ratings-on-strong-fundamentals\/"},"modified":"2025-06-25T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2025-06-25T00:00:00","slug":"fitch-affirms-uae-and-abu-dhabis-long-term-default-ratings-on-strong-fundamentals","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/uae\/2025\/06\/25\/fitch-affirms-uae-and-abu-dhabis-long-term-default-ratings-on-strong-fundamentals\/","title":{"rendered":"Fitch affirms UAE and Abu Dhabi\u2019s long-term default ratings on strong fundamentals"},"content":{"rendered":"

Fitch Ra<\/strong>tings affirmed both the UAE and Abu Dhabi's long-term <\/strong>foreign-currency issuer default <\/strong>ratings<\/strong>, maintaining Abu Dhabi\u2019s at AA with a stable outlook, and the UAE\u2019s at AA- with a stable outlook, it said in statements here<\/a> and here<\/a>. This came on the back of what it cited as a strong net external asset position and high GDP per capita, as well as Abu Dhabi\u2019s sovereign asset position, which is among the highest of Fitch-rated sovereigns. <\/p>\n

This is despite the geopolitical risks posed by the conflict between Israel and Ira<\/strong>n<\/strong>, which it said could cause \u201cshort-term disruptions\u201d to trade and hydrocarbon infrastructure that it expects the UAE to absorb due to large fiscal and external buffers. <\/p>\n

Also supporting Abu Dhabi\u2019s rating is the emirate\u2019s low government debt<\/strong> \u2014 which is among the lowest of Fitch-rated sovereigns. However, Abu Dhabi\u2019s rating is constrained by a combination of \u201ca high dependence on hydrocarbons, a relatively weak but improving economic policy framework and low governance indicators compared with peers,\u201d the agency wrote.<\/p>\n

Local currency debt to increase:<\/strong> The ratings agency expects Abu Dhabi\u2019s debt to rise to 18.2% of GDP, up from 17.4% in 2024, as the government issues more local-currency debt to support the domestic market, alongside more issuances from government-related entities. <\/p>\n

Growth to remain strong: <\/strong>Fitch sees the UAE\u2019s headline growth coming in at 5.2% this year, supported by a 9% increase in oil production as Opec+ hikes the UAE\u2019s production quota. Non-oil growth is pegged at 4% this year. For Abu Dhabi, GDP is expected to grow at 6.3% in 2025 and 4% for 2026. The agency also sees non-oil growth remaining strong across the coming years, after it recorded 6.2% growth in 2024, driven by major projects and population growth.<\/p>\n

How this compares: <\/strong>The growth forecast is optimistic compared to other ratings agencies and banks, with Emirates NBD forecasting 4.8% growth<\/a> this year, the IMF and S&P Global both expecting a more modest 4% growth, and the World Bank forecasting 4.6% growth. The CBUAE expects a stronger 4.7% GDP growth.<\/p>\n

The fiscal forecast:<\/strong> The agency expects Abu Dhabi to pencil in a budget surplus of 7% of GDP in 2025, down from 9.9% in 2024 \u2014 a prediction that it bases on its Brent crude oil price forecast of USD 65 per barrel and forecast for oil production of 3.2 mn bbl\/d. The surplus is expected to widen to 8% in 2025 on the back of \u201chigher oil production, modest spending growth and the start of corporate income tax receipts.\u201d <\/p>\n

There are factors that could lead to a downgrade for Abu Dhabi:<\/strong> \u201cSubstantial erosion of fiscal and external positions, for example, due to a sustained decline in oil prices, or a materialisation of contingent liabilities,\u201d coupled with \u201ca geopolitical shock that negatively affects economic, social or political stability\u201d are all factors that could lead to a negative rating action for both the UAE and Abu Dhabi.<\/p>\n

There\u2019s also room for improvement:<\/strong> Strengthening governance, reducing oil dependence, and lowered geopolitical risk coupled with a maintenance of strong fiscal and external balance sheets could lead to positive rating actions for the emirate.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The rating affirmation is attributed to a strong net external asset position<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":104941,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1556],"tags":[1360,1391,19,7,693,20],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-104940","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-abu-dhabi","tag-debt","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam-uae","tag-fitch-ratings","tag-gdp","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"56e6f5ad-3c47-44b6-ba83-57beec74d6cc","order":"3","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2025\/1\/2245.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"Fitch affirms UAE and Abu Dhabi\u2019s long-term default ratings on strong fundamentals","related_issue":[104935],"teaser":"The rating affirmation is attributed to a strong net external asset position","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2025\/6\/.1b2eb0f3-1557-4b85-973e-fd7f6baea0a1.mp3"},"yoast_head":"\nFitch affirms UAE and Abu Dhabi\u2019s long-term default ratings on strong fundamentals - 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