{"id":102889,"date":"2025-04-23T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-04-23T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/uae\/imf-maintains-the-uaes-gdp-growth-forecast-at-4\/"},"modified":"2025-04-23T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2025-04-23T00:00:00","slug":"imf-maintains-the-uaes-gdp-growth-forecast-at-4","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/uae\/2025\/04\/23\/imf-maintains-the-uaes-gdp-growth-forecast-at-4\/","title":{"rendered":"IMF maintains the UAE\u2019s GDP growth forecast at 4%"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"> <strong>The International Monetary Fund (IMF) maintained its 2025 growth forecast <\/strong><strong>for the <\/strong><strong>UAE at 4%<\/strong> \u2014 the highest forecast across the GCC \u2014 in its latest <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/ent.news\/2025\/4\/1441.pdf\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">World Economic Outlook report (pdf)<\/a>, despite a global backdrop of headwinds following the introduction of US tariffs. The report\u2019s projection matches the fund\u2019s <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/uae\/en\/news\/story\/24f48f21-5d4d-4239-8a52-b17469802ca3\/imf-revises-uae%25e2%2580%2599s%253cmark%253e-gdp%253c%2Fmark%253e-growth-forecast-down-to-4%2525\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">January forecast<\/a>, with growth expected to accelerate to 5% in 2026. <\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>***The UAE is among a rare few who did not see their GDP growth forecast slashed in the latest outlook update<\/strong> \u2014 we have more on the IMF\u2019s global growth forecasts in today\u2019s Planet Finance, below. <\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong style=\"background-color: transparent;\">Inflation is seen rising to 2.1% in 2025, up from 1.7% in 2024, before easing to 2% in 2026<\/strong><span style=\"background-color: transparent;\">. This is a slight upward revision from the fund\u2019s earlier estimate of 2% inflation for 2025. The current account surplus is forecast at 6.6% of GDP in 2025, a downgrade from the 7.5% projected in January, with a further drop to 6.4% by the end of 2026.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>REMEMBER<\/strong>- The IMF sees the UAE\u2019s non-hydrocarbon revenue being a main driver for the country\u2019s economy in 2025, with non-oil GDP projected to grow 4.5% this year. Tourism, construction, public spending, and financial services are expected to post steady gains in upcoming years. <\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>How it stacks up:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>The World Bank <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/uae\/en\/news\/story\/dc47cf12-966a-41ad-838d-787534b911d2\/world-bank-slightly-cuts-uae%25e2%2580%2599s-growth-forecast-for-2025\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">revised down forecast<\/a> for economic growth in the UAE in January 2025, expecting 4.1% growth for the year;<\/li>\n<li>The UAE Central Bank expects a stronger <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/uae\/en\/news\/story\/e95173c0-b4ed-49cf-8c38-460f770da475\/cbuae,-icaew-are-upbeat-on%253cmark%253e-the%253c%2Fmark%253e%253cmark%253e-uae%253c%2Fmark%253e%25e2%2580%2599s-growth-this-year\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">4.7%<\/a> GDP growth;<\/li>\n<li> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/uae\/en\/news\/story\/9119f717-0e56-4ed0-be91-b8ae612622e3\/s&amp;p-global-sees-the-uae%25e2%2580%2599s-economy-growing-by-5.1%2525-in-2025\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">S&amp;P Global<\/a> and <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/uae\/en\/news\/story\/d26af25a-1b70-4bb5-983d-6a308301755c\/fitch%25e2%2580%2599s-bmi-revises-uae%253cmark%253e-growth%253c%2Fmark%253e-forecast-down-slightly-for-2025,-remains-optimistic-for-2026\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">Fitch Solutions<\/a> \u2019s research unit BMI forecast 5.1% growth this year.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>REMEMBER-<\/strong> The UAE\u2019s expanding trade network is expected to act as a <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/uae\/en\/news\/story\/d73829ec-6d65-440c-bcdd-e5974873d6b8\/more-economists-downplay-the-impacts-of-the%253cmark%253e-tariffs%253c%2Fmark%253e-on-the-gcc-and-the-uae\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">buffer<\/a> against tariff shocks, with stronger ties helping lower barriers and mitigate external risks, according to Emirates NBD research. UAE\u2013US relations are also seen as a stabilizing factor, especially as the UAE has pledged <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/uae\/en\/news\/story\/e821f11d-59fa-49b1-a3ad-5a1638b9dd42\/uae-to-invest-usd%253cmark%253e-1.4-tn%253c%2Fmark%253e-in-us-over-10-years\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">USD 1.4 tn<\/a> in investments in the US. BMI expects GCC economies to remain shielded from Trump\u2019s tariffs due to strategic and economic factors.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>S&amp;P Global agrees:<\/strong> Economic conditions in a number of GCC countries including the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar \u201cremain in solid shape\u201d despite the US administration\u2019s trade policies, with S&amp;P Global Market Research only slightly revising downwards its growth outlook for the three countries across 2025 and 2026, <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.zawya.com\/en\/press-release\/research-and-studies\/s-and-p-global-market-intelligence-april-global-economic-forecast-update-growth-prospects-still-deteriorating-despite-tariff-pause-m7de7ljf\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">Zawya<\/a> reports, citing a report from S&amp;P. The research unit cites falling oil prices as the main culprit for slower growth, but says UAE and Qatar are expected to withstand an extended period of lower oil prices.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>S&amp;P also sees global growth reaching its lowest level since the 2008 fina<\/strong><strong>ncial crisis \u2014 barring the pande<\/strong><strong>mic:<\/strong> S&amp;P lowered its annual global real GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 2.2% from 2.5% previously, and down from a forecast that was close to 3% prior to the US elections. The forecast for next year\u2019s real GDP growth was also lowered to 2.4%, down from 2.7% previously. \u201cIn both years, projected global growth would be the weakest since the global \ufb01nancial crisis of 2008\u201309, excluding the COVID-19 pandemic,\u201d S&amp;P wrote.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Inflation is seen rising to 2.1% in 2025<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":102890,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1556],"tags":[19,7,20,594,266,1334],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-102889","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam-uae","tag-gdp","tag-imf","tag-oil-and-gas","tag-trade","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"261164f9-698a-4536-8e53-af67349d9b67","order":"3","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2025\/4\/1459.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"IMF maintains the UAE\u2019s GDP growth forecast at 4%","related_issue":[102884],"teaser":"Inflation is seen rising to 2.1% in 2025","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2025\/4\/.608aaf47-d78d-49f0-844f-2574e60539c1.mp3"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.1 (Yoast SEO v27.1.1) - 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