{"id":102675,"date":"2025-04-16T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-04-16T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/uae\/emerging-markets-are-rattled-by-tariff-war\/"},"modified":"2025-04-16T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2025-04-16T00:00:00","slug":"emerging-markets-are-rattled-by-tariff-war","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/uae\/2025\/04\/16\/emerging-markets-are-rattled-by-tariff-war\/","title":{"rendered":"Emerging markets are rattled by tariff war"},"content":{"rendered":"

Tariffs are fueling investor anxiety across emerging markets (EM)<\/strong>, prompting a shift toward safer assets and adding pressure on currencies and riskier holdings, Bloomberg<\/a> reports.<\/p>\n

Wrecking ball:<\/strong> Societe Generale strategists expect most EM currencies to decline, with China\u2019s CNY projected to see a \u201cmodest\u201d depreciation, while South Africa\u2019s ZAR and Latin American currencies could be in for sluggish performance. The \u201cwrecking ball [is] still underway in EM FX, but will slow,\u201d they said.<\/span><\/p>\n

Optimism is waning:<\/strong> Despite the MSCI EM Currency Index reaching a five-month high last week, investor sentiment remains largely pessimistic due to the ongoing trade war. The Colombian COP and Indonesian IDR led declines<\/a> among EM currencies last week, while last Monday saw China set its CNY fixing to the weakest level since September 2023 at CNY 7.2038 per USD.<\/p>\n

Even a weaker USD wouldn\u2019t help:<\/strong> Any unwinding of the USD will benefit developed market currencies more than EM, according to Goldman Sachs Group strategists, with investors using the selloff to seek out undervalued assets in the US.<\/p>\n

The risk-off approach is hitting some more than others:<\/strong> Emerging markets with political instability \u2014 such as Turkey, Indonesia, and South Korea \u2014 are adding to investor risk-off sentiment. In Turkey, Morgan Stanley projects a weaker TRY by year-end, estimating a USD 10 bn drop in foreign reserves due to tariff-driven outflows. Local FX demand will be key to the country\u2019s reserves outlook, Morgan Stanley analysts Hande Kucuk and Arnav Gupta told Bloomberg.<\/p>\n

Oil woes are also inflicting pain:<\/strong> A steep drop in oil prices \u2014 triggered by the tariffs \u2014 is piling pressure<\/a> on emerging market oil exporters. Brent crude dropped more than 20% in the week following the April 2 tariff announcement, briefly touching below USD 60 per barrel before rebounding. Oil-dependent economies, including Gulf countries, Nigeria, Angola, Venezuela, Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico, are expected to face a hit to hard-currency revenues, while oil-importing countries are set to see some benefits from the falling prices, according to investors cited by the newswire.<\/p>\n

How will EMs respond?<\/strong> Trump\u2019s tactics may embolden political leaders to adopt more radical approaches, increasing the likelihood of extreme market swings, said Malin Rosengren, a fund manager at RBC BlueBay. \u201cNo doubt we will be seeing more instances across EM of strong man politics testing the limits of the new world order,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n

The panic won\u2019t continue for long, though: <\/strong>Rosengren believes that after experiencing volatility for an extended period, investors are likely to fall back on economic fundamentals \u2014 like growth prospects, inflation, and interest rates \u2014 rather than being overly influenced by short-term political drama or instability.<\/p>\n

MARKETS THIS MORNING-<\/p>\n

Asian markets are mostly in the red this morning<\/strong>, with Hang Seng (Hong Kong) down 1.6%, Japan\u2019s Nikkei down 0.7%, and Shanghai Composite down 0.6%. Meanwhile, Wall Street futures are inching down after Nvidia announced it will suffer a hefty USD 5.5 bn quarterly charge on its exports to China due to tariffs.<\/p>\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

ADX<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

9,290<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.6% (YTD: -1.4%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

DFM<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

5,078<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.4% (YTD: -1.6%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Nasdaq Dubai UAE20<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

4,130<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+1.2% (YTD: -0.8%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

USD : AED<\/strong> CBUAE<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Buy 3.67<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Sell 3.67<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

EIBOR<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

4.1% o\/n<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

4.1% 1 yr<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

TASI<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

11,617<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.2% (YTD: -3.5%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

EGX30 <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

31,185<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.01% (YTD: +4.9%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

S&P 500<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

5,397<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.2% (YTD: -8.3%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

FTSE 100<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

8,249<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+1.4% (YTD: +0.9%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Euro Stoxx 50<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

4,970<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+1.2% (YTD: +1.5%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Brent crude<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 64.67<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.3%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Natural gas <\/strong>(Nymex)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 3.29<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-1.1%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Gold<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 3248.60<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.3%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

BTC<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 83,897.00<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.7% (YTD: -10.3%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n

THE CLOSING BELL-<\/strong><\/p>\n

The DFM rose 0.4% yesterday<\/strong> on turnover of AED 528.3 mn. The index is down 1.6% YTD.<\/p>\n

In the green: <\/strong>National International Holding (+12.5%), Shuaa Capital (+8.9%) and Salama (+4%).<\/p>\n

In the red: <\/strong>National General Ins. (-10%), National Cement Company (-9.9%) and Agility (-9%). <\/p>\n

Over on the ADX<\/strong>, the index rose 0.6% on turnover of AED 1.6 bn. The index is down 1.4% YTD. Meanwhile, Nasdaq Dubai was up 1.2%. <\/p>\n

CORPORATE ACTIONS- <\/p>\n

National <\/strong>General Ins. approved a dividend distribution of AED 74.2 mn for FY 2024<\/strong>, equivalent to AED 0.45 per share, according to a DFM disclosure (pdf)<\/a>. The payout represents 45% of the company\u2019s share capital.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Investor sentiment remains largely pessimistic<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":102676,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1553],"tags":[29,329,1125,225,7,226,48,50],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-102675","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-planet-finance","tag-capital-markets","tag-currencies","tag-donald-trump","tag-emerging-markets","tag-enterpriseam-uae","tag-equities","tag-financial-markets","tag-planet-finance","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"9c084502-ad84-4292-bd67-d5fee0bcd526","order":"9","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2025\/4\/801.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"Trump\u2019s trade war rattles emerging markets currencies, equities","related_issue":[102659],"teaser":"Investor sentiment remains largely pessimistic","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2025\/4\/.f7756bde-783a-4b0c-8768-db11b3c904f5.mp3"},"yoast_head":"\nEmerging markets are rattled by tariff war - 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