{"id":102372,"date":"2025-04-08T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-04-08T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/uae\/this-morning-efg-hermes-one-on-one-is-on-its-second-day-dubai-crown-prince-sheikh-hamdan-bin-mohammed-is-in-india\/"},"modified":"2025-04-08T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2025-04-08T00:00:00","slug":"this-morning-efg-hermes-one-on-one-is-on-its-second-day-dubai-crown-prince-sheikh-hamdan-bin-mohammed-is-in-india","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/uae\/2025\/04\/08\/this-morning-efg-hermes-one-on-one-is-on-its-second-day-dubai-crown-prince-sheikh-hamdan-bin-mohammed-is-in-india\/","title":{"rendered":"THIS MORNING: EFG Hermes One on One is on its second day + Dubai Crown Prince Sheikh Hamdan bin Mohammed is in India"},"content":{"rendered":"

Good morning from Dubai, friends, where we have another packed issue for you <\/strong>informed by more than a dozen conversations with global fund and portfolio managers, analysts, and top company execs attending the EFG Hermes One on One. <\/p>\n

<\/a> The Trump administration\u2019s trade turmoil has made for an interesting One on One so far, <\/strong>but <\/strong>the overall feeling here is one of \u201ccautious optimism\u201d <\/strong>\u2014 at least when it comes to the impact on the UAE economy. What it all means for financial markets is a more nuanced (and much less settled) question. <\/p>\n

The big takeaways here for regional markets<\/strong> based on our conversations yesterday and last night:<\/p>\n

#1- Nobody is talking about a disaster scenario for regional IPO and M&A markets.<\/strong> The prevailing mood right now is \u201clet\u2019s wait and see where this settles.\u201d The (so-far) worst case anyone wanted to put on the table: Some IPOs may slip to the fall window from spring. M&As, meanwhile, seem even less likely to be scuppered by the market\u2019s ongoing temper tantrum. <\/p>\n

#2- Everyone feels pretty good about where the UAE sits right now. <\/strong>Post-covid reforms including a more relaxed visa regime, a big expansion of major global financial services players setting up shop in the UAE (particularly in Abu Dhabi), the opening of new tourist markets, big inflows of HNWI individuals, and a surge in entrepreneurism will all provide shock absorbers for the economy. Nobody is talking about a repeat of 2008. Could we see an uptick in inflation? Maybe. <\/p>\n

#3- 10% is the \u201cnew zero\u201d when it comes to trade<\/strong>, and all of us in the Mideast (here in the Emirates, but also in Saudi Arabia and Egypt) could benefit from that. Egypt probably gets the biggest bump, putting it in a position to benefit from inward investment in manufacturing and services if (a) policymakers stay the course with a floating FX rate and (b) there\u2019s no return to the status quo ante bellum on trade in the next 6-12 months.<\/p>\n

#4- Markets have a way of quickly equilibrating. <\/strong>One of the smartest investment bankers we know made the point yesterday that from the dotcom meltdown and the global financial crisis, to covid-19 and fallout from the war in Ukraine, financial markets adapt to crises in a fraction of the time they took in the 1970s, 1980s, or even 1990s. No promises, of course, but \u2026 is there any reason to think that this time will be different? (Other than, of course, the lack of policy clarity emanating from DC\u2026)<\/p>\n

We explore all of this and more in this morning\u2019s news well, below<\/strong>, with coverage of the EFG Hermes One on One Live Poll as well as remarks on stage from senior Dubai officials. We\u2019ll have more for you throughout the week \u2014 the One on One wraps on Thursday.<\/p>\n

Companies from our part of the world are the stars of the show. <\/strong>Among the top UAE firms attending:<\/p>\n