{"id":101807,"date":"2025-03-19T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-03-19T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/uae\/cbuae-icaew-are-upbeat-on-the-uaes-growth-this-year\/"},"modified":"2025-03-19T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2025-03-19T00:00:00","slug":"cbuae-icaew-are-upbeat-on-the-uaes-growth-this-year","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/uae\/2025\/03\/19\/cbuae-icaew-are-upbeat-on-the-uaes-growth-this-year\/","title":{"rendered":"CBUAE, ICAEW are upbeat on the UAE\u2019s growth this year"},"content":{"rendered":"

We have a fresh batch of upbeat forecasts on the UAE\u2019s economic growth<\/strong>, with the Central Bank of the UAE hiking its GDP forecast for the year, and the ICAEW expecting the country to remain resilient amid global headwinds. <\/p>\n

CBUAE SEES 4.7% GROWTH THIS YEAR- <\/p>\n

CBUAE revises up its growth forecast for the UAE: <\/strong>The Central Bank of the UAE (CBUAE) now sees real GDP growing by 4.7% in 2025 \u2014 up from an estimated 3.9% in 2024 \u2014 before accelerating further to 5.7% in 2026, it said in its Quarterly Economic Review (pdf)<\/a>. This year\u2019s projection is up 0.2 percentage points from its last forecast in December<\/a>, when it predicted 4.5% growth for 2025.<\/p>\n

Driving the growth:<\/strong> Robust growth in both the nonhydrocarbon and hydrocarbon sectors is expected to drive growth in 2025. Non-oil growth is set to come in at 5.1% in 2025 and 4.8% in 2026, \u201cdriven by the strategic plans and policies implemented by the government to attract foreign investments and promote economic diversification.\u201d Meanwhile, the hydrocarbon sector is expected to grow by 3.6% in 2025, before expanding to a whopping 8.5% in 2026, which the bank bases on expectations of increased oil production following Opec\u2019s decision to hike supply<\/a> and raise the UAE\u2019s production quota starting next month. <\/p>\n

Taking stock of 2024: <\/strong>Non-oil growth came in at 4.7% y-o-y in 3Q 2024, the CBUAE said, down from 4.8% the previous quarter, on the back of a deceleration in construction, transportation and storage, and financial ins. activities. Most of the decline was offset by an acceleration in manufacturing, trade and real estate activities.<\/p>\n

Risks remain:<\/strong> An escalation of geopolitical tensions, global economic deceleration due to extended periods of high interest rates, uncertainty over trade policy, and \u201cthe possible spillovers of lower oil prices on the nonhydrocarbon sector\u201d were all cited as potential risks that could impact the UAE\u2019s growth prospects. <\/p>\n

On the other hand,<\/strong> the \u201csuccessful implementation of reforms, combined with diversification efforts, signed Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreements, investment projects, and faster adoption of artificial intelligence\u201d could all help boost the UAE\u2019s economic performance.<\/p>\n

As for inflation,<\/strong> the CBUAE kept its forecast unchanged at 2.0% in 2025 \u2014 well below the world average \u2014 and 2.1% in 2026, with the \u201cnon-tradable components of the consumer basket expected to be the main drivers.\u201d <\/p>\n

The CBUAE sees economic growth in the GCC region increasing to 3.5% in 2025,<\/strong> up from an estimated 1.7% in 2024. This is about 0.6 percentage points lower than the previous forecasts, due to the extension of the Opec+ production cuts until April. The central bank sees GCC growth accelerating to 4.5% next year.<\/p>\n

MORE UPBEAT FORECASTS FOR THE UAE\u2019S GROWTH-<\/p>\n

The oil sector could grow 3.2% this year<\/strong>, following two years of contraction due to supply restrictions, according to the latest ICAEW Economic Insight report<\/a> prepared by Oxford Economics. Meanwhile, the UAE\u2019s non-oil sector is seen growing by 4.8% during the year<\/strong>, leading non-oil growth across the GCC alongside Saudi Arabia. The forecast is up five percentage points from the 4.3% it had penciled in<\/a> in December. <\/p>\n

More good news: <\/strong>Growth in the GCC is expected to withstand recent upheaval in global trade. The overall GCC economy is set to grow by 4.0% in 2025, up from an estimated 1.8% in 2024, despite rising global protectionism, geopolitical tensions, and an uncertain global economic outlook, ICAEW said. <\/p>\n

Remember:<\/strong> Fitch Solutions\u2019 research unit BMI sees<\/a> MENA countries (and GCC countries in particular) being safe from direct tariffs from the Trump administration due to \u201ceconomic and strategic considerations.\u201d BMI argues that Saudi Arabia and the UAE\u2019s investments in the US \u2014 specifically in AI \u2014 along with close relations with US President Donald Trump would make tariffs on both countries \u201ccounterproductive,\u201d especially as Trump looks to \u201cexpand the Abraham Accords and reduce China's influence in the Middle East,\u201d the report reads.<\/p>\n

How the forecasts compare:<\/strong> S&P Global and Fitch Solutions\u2019 research unit BMI both see the UAE\u2019s real GDP growing by 5.1% in 2025, while the International Monetary Fund<\/a> and the World Bank<\/a> revised their forecasts for the UAE\u2019s economy this year to 4.0%. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The central bank revised up its forecast for GDP by 0.2 percentage points to 4.7%<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":101808,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1556],"tags":[157,19,7,20,266],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-101807","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-central-bank-of-the-uae","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam-uae","tag-gdp","tag-oil-and-gas","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"e95173c0-b4ed-49cf-8c38-460f770da475","order":"3","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2025\/3\/1514.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"CBUAE, ICAEW are upbeat on the UAE\u2019s growth this year","related_issue":[101802],"teaser":"The central bank revised up its forecast for GDP by 0.2 percentage points to 4.7%","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2025\/3\/.7034a229-18b2-44fd-9ebc-0b18e964c009.mp3"},"yoast_head":"\nCBUAE, ICAEW are upbeat on the UAE\u2019s growth this year - 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