{"id":101147,"date":"2025-02-27T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-02-27T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/uae\/moodys-lowers-outlook-on-uae-banking-profitability-while-penciling-in-5-growth-for-the-non-oil-sector\/"},"modified":"2025-02-27T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2025-02-27T00:00:00","slug":"moodys-lowers-outlook-on-uae-banking-profitability-while-penciling-in-5-growth-for-the-non-oil-sector","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/uae\/2025\/02\/27\/moodys-lowers-outlook-on-uae-banking-profitability-while-penciling-in-5-growth-for-the-non-oil-sector\/","title":{"rendered":"Moody\u2019s lowers outlook on UAE banking profitability, while penciling in 5% growth for the non-oil sector"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"> <strong>Moody\u2019s has adjusted its outlook on the UAE\u2019s banking<\/strong><strong> sector from positive to<\/strong><strong> stable,<\/strong> citing expected declines in profitability as interest rates fall and corporate taxes rise, according to its latest report. Despite these challenges, the agency highlighted improvements in loan quality, supported by enhanced credit risk regulations from the Central Bank of the UAE. <\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\">(<strong>Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links <\/strong>to our background as well as external sources.)<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>Moody\u2019s sees the UAE\u2019s non-oil GDP growth slowing to 5% in 2025<\/strong> from 5.4% in 2024. However, strong business confidence and government-backed infrastructure projects are expected to sustain lending activity. The agency\u2019s projection aligns with Emirates NBD\u2019s <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/uae\/en\/news\/story\/1e137785-9c96-4ced-b0c3-f6aa041c2bf2\/non-oil-economy-to-grow-5%2525-this-year--emirates-nbd\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">forecast<\/a> of 5% growth and Fitch Solutions\u2019 BMI\u2019s <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/uae\/en\/news\/story\/d26af25a-1b70-4bb5-983d-6a308301755c\/fitch%25e2%2580%2599s-bmi-revises-uae-growth-forecast-down-slightly-for-2025,-remains-optimistic-for-2026\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">projection<\/a> of 5.1%, but remains above the 4% growth forecasted by the IMF and World Bank, and slightly lower than First Abu Dhabi Bank\u2019s <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/uae\/en\/news\/story\/440cf125-db59-49b2-b19a-1cf704bb64f1\/fab,-bmi-give-their-two-cents-on-the-uae%25e2%2580%2599s-growth-prospects-in-2025\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">5.6% estimate<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>The agency also anticipates a decline in problem loans, falling to around 3-4% of total lending<\/strong>, driven by regulatory improvements and reduced borrowing costs. UAE banks continue to maintain strong capital buffers and stable provisioning coverage, the report said. Capital buffers are also expected to remain solid over the next 12 to 18 months as banks balance earning retention and asset expansion, the report said.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/disclosure.spglobal.com\/ratings\/en\/regulatory\/delegate\/getPDF?articleId=3305827&type=COMMENTS&defaultFormat=PDF\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">Last month<\/a><\/strong><strong>, <\/strong><strong>S&P Global also predicted a slight decline in UAE banks\u2019 net incomes<\/strong>, following two years of high earnings buoyed by rising interest rates. Lending activity \u2014 growing at an average rate of 4.8% since 2019 \u2014 remains a key stabilizing factor for the sector, S&P Global said.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>ON THE GCC FRONT- <\/strong>Moody\u2019s also revised Saudi Arabia\u2019s banking outlook to \u201cstable,\u201d warning that tight financing conditions are emerging as credit demand outpaces deposit growth, with Saudi banks increasingly relying on government deposits, market financing, and higher-cost term deposits to support growth.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>Meanwhile, Oman\u2019s banking outlook was upgraded to \u201cpositive,\u201d<\/strong> supported by improving loan quality and 3% projected non-oil GDP growth in 2025-2026. Moody\u2019s kept its outlook for Kuwait, Bahrain, and Qatar at \u201cstable,\u201d with no major changes expected.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The agency lowered its outlook on the UAE banking system from \u201cpositive\u201d to 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lowers outlook on UAE banking profitability, while penciling in 5% growth for the non-oil sector","related_issue":[101140],"teaser":"The agency lowered its outlook on the UAE banking system from \u201cpositive\u201d to \u201cstable\u201d","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2025\/2\/.2e2b4b06-f719-47d4-91bc-b7bb4c971a32.mp3"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.1 (Yoast SEO v27.1.1) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Moody\u2019s lowers outlook on UAE banking profitability, while penciling in 5% growth for the non-oil sector - UAE<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/uae\/2025\/02\/27\/moodys-lowers-outlook-on-uae-banking-profitability-while-penciling-in-5-growth-for-the-non-oil-sector\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" 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