{"id":100816,"date":"2025-02-18T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-02-18T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/uae\/bondholders-push-back-against-the-imfs-ethiopia-debt-assessment\/"},"modified":"2025-02-18T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2025-02-18T00:00:00","slug":"bondholders-push-back-against-the-imfs-ethiopia-debt-assessment","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/uae\/2025\/02\/18\/bondholders-push-back-against-the-imfs-ethiopia-debt-assessment\/","title":{"rendered":"Bondholders push back against the IMF\u2019s Ethiopia debt assessment"},"content":{"rendered":"

Is the IMF undermining Ethiopia\u2019s creditors in negotiations over the country\u2019s <\/strong>defaulted USD bond?<\/strong> A group of investors holding Ethiopia\u2019s defaulted USD 1 bn bond is accusing the IMF of downplaying the country\u2019s economic recovery as a means to force the country\u2019s creditors to offer Ethiopia a larger haircut on its debt, the Financial Times<\/a> and Reuters<\/a> report. The investors argue that a rise in gold and coffee exports has significantly strengthened Ethiopia\u2019s financial position, making the IMF\u2019s assessment of the country\u2019s debt outlook unnecessarily pessimistic.<\/p>\n

IN CONTEXT-<\/strong> Ethiopia went into default in December 2023 after skipping a USD 33 mn coupon payment on its only international government bond, which came amid a period of intense financial strain related to the country\u2019s two-year civil war that ended in 2022 and the Covid pandemic. The country received a USD 3.4 bn IMF bailout in July 2024 to help with its default, with the key stipulations that the country liberalize its exchange rates and reduce its debt levels in line with its exports.<\/span><\/p>\n

The IMF\u2019s export estimates lie at the core of the current dispute: <\/strong>The bondholder committee \u2014 which represents investors holding some 40% of the defaulted USD bonds \u2014 says the IMF has \u201csignificantly undervalued\u201d Ethiopia\u2019s export rebound following the country\u2019s currency devaluation last year. The Fund\u2019s economic forecasts, they argue, \u201cartificially imply a solvency issue which requires Ethiopia to seek greater concessions from its stakeholders in order to meet the IMF\u2019s lending criteria,\u201d essentially forcing lenders to accept a haircut on their payout.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s true that Ethiopia\u2019s export numbers show signs of a recovery: <\/strong>Ethiopia\u2019s exports more than doubled in 2H 2024 after the devaluation, reaching USD 3 bn off the back of a 60% rise in coffee exports to nearly USD 1 bn and a 700% jump in gold exports to USD 1.3 bn. Meanwhile, imports dipped slightly to USD 8.6 bn over the same period. <\/p>\n

Still, the IMF has concerns about long-term debt sustainability: <\/strong>IMF staff have acknowledged that exports are ticking up, but insist that medium- to long-term growth will remain at 9-10% of GDP, leaving Ethiopia\u2019s debt still \u201cunsustainable and in distress,\u201d according to a January press release (pdf)<\/a>. Because the IMF\u2019s USD 3.4 bn bailout for Ethiopia requires the government to cut debts relative to exports, slower estimated export growth has provided the Ethiopian government a rationale to ask creditors to take larger losses on its defaulted bonds.<\/p>\n

Ethiopia\u2019s creditors, for their part, are refusing to take a haircut on the country\u2019s debt. <\/strong>Last year, bondholders rejected the Ethiopian government\u2019s offer to take an 18% haircut on its outstanding debt, arguing that the country's recovery didn\u2019t warrant such a deep loss. However, debt advocacy groups \u2014 including Debt Justice, the Horn Economic and Social Policy Institute, and the African Forum and Network on Debt and Development \u2014 argue that bondholders turned down an \u201cextremely generous\u201d offer that would have still yielded returns of about a third on the bondholder\u2019s investment.<\/p>\n

The clash over Ethiopia\u2019s debt highlights a growing divide in resolving sovereign <\/strong>defaults<\/strong>, with investors pushing back against the IMF\u2019s influence on restructuring efforts from Sri Lanka to Zambia, the salmon-backed paper highlighted. While the Fund doesn\u2019t involve itself in debt restructuring negotiations directly, its economic forecasts set their tone, shaping creditor expectations and \u2014 investors argue \u2014 tilting the balance toward deeper writedowns.<\/p>\n

MARKETS THIS MORNING- <\/p>\n

Asian markets are mixed in early trading this morning <\/strong>\u2014 Japan\u2019s Nikkei is up 0.4% and the Hang Send is looking at gains of 1.0%, meanwhile the Shanghai Composite is down 0.3% and the Kospi is down 0.1%. <\/p>\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

ADX<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

9,557<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.7% (YTD: +1.5%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

DFM<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

5,383<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.4% (YTD: +4.4%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Nasdaq Dubai UAE20<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

4,394<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.8% (YTD: +5.5%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

USD : AED<\/strong> CBUAE<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Buy 3.67<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Sell 3.67<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

EIBOR<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

4.3% o\/n<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

4.4% 1 yr<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

TASI<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

12,266<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.9% (YTD: +1.9%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

EGX30<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

30,437<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

0.0% (YTD: +2.3%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

S&P 500<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

6,115<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

0.0% (YTD: +4.0%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

FTSE 100<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

8,768<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.4% (YTD: +7.3%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Euro Stoxx 50 <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

5,520<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.5% (YTD: +12.7%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Brent crude<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 75.28<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.7%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Natural gas (Nymex)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 3.60<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-3.3%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Gold<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 2,911<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.4%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

BTC<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 96,129<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-1.1% (YTD: +2.8%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n

THE CLOSING BELL-<\/strong><\/p>\n

The ADX fell 0.7% yesterday<\/strong> on turnover of AED 970.4 mn. The index is up 1.5% YTD.<\/p>\n

In the green: <\/strong>Rapco Investment (+12.9%), Sudatel Telecommunications Group (+9.9%) and E7 Group (+5.9%).<\/p>\n

In the red: <\/strong>Burjeel Holdings (-9.7%), Umm Al Qaiwain General Investment (-6.4%) and Mair Group (-5.5%). <\/p>\n

Over on the DFM<\/strong>, the index rose 0.4% on turnover of AED 962.2 mn. Meanwhile Nasdaq Dubai closed down 0.8%.<\/p>\n

CORPORATE ACTIONS-<\/p>\n

Burjeel <\/strong>mulls share buyback: <\/strong>Healthcare services provider Burjeel Holdings will evaluate the feasibility of a share buyback during its board meeting on 20 February, according to an ADX disclosure (pdf)<\/a>. The buyback would be contingent on shareholder and regulatory approvals.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Investors claim that the IMF\u2019s economic forecasts are tilting the balance toward deeper writedowns on existing debt<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":100817,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1553],"tags":[7,48,50],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-100816","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-planet-finance","tag-enterpriseam-uae","tag-financial-markets","tag-planet-finance","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"53d46ea2-722a-4791-a069-8e494f43eddc","order":"13","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2025\/2\/1728.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"Bondholders push back against the IMF\u2019s Ethiopia debt assessment","related_issue":[100792],"teaser":"Investors claim that the IMF\u2019s economic forecasts are tilting the balance toward deeper writedowns on existing debt","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2025\/2\/.dc491903-61ce-4d31-a76b-218bd71eda49.mp3"},"yoast_head":"\nBondholders push back against the IMF\u2019s Ethiopia debt assessment - 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