{"id":100631,"date":"2025-02-12T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-02-12T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/uae\/trumps-tariffs-could-delay-fed-rate-cuts-as-inflation-risks-rise\/"},"modified":"2025-02-12T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2025-02-12T00:00:00","slug":"trumps-tariffs-could-delay-fed-rate-cuts-as-inflation-risks-rise","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/uae\/2025\/02\/12\/trumps-tariffs-could-delay-fed-rate-cuts-as-inflation-risks-rise\/","title":{"rendered":"Trump\u2019s tariffs could delay Fed rate cuts as inflation risks rise"},"content":{"rendered":"

Trump\u2019s trade policies will likely put Fed rate cuts on hold \u2014 at least for now:<\/strong> The US Federal Reserve is expected to hold off on cutting interest rates until at least next quarter, with US President Donald Trump\u2019s recently announced tariffs igniting fresh concerns about inflation risks, according to a Reuters poll<\/a> of 101 analysts conducted between 4-10 February. The survey results suggest that Fed officials will adopt a wait-and-see approach as they assess how tariffs and other policy changes could affect the economy before making any further rate cuts.<\/p>\n

The forecast marks a stark shift from Reuters\u2019 January poll<\/strong>, which saw close to 60% of economists agree that the Fed would cut rates in March. In contrast, just 22 of the 101 analysts polled in February expected a cut in March, with another 45 penciling in a cut for 2Q 2025. Only 17 of the 99 analysts who offered end-of-year forecasts believed that the Fed would hold off on rate cuts until 2H, with another 16 not expecting any cuts this year. Futures markets, for their part, are currently pricing in just over a 50% probability of one rate cut by mid-2025. <\/p>\n

The size of the year\u2019s cuts is also up in the air:<\/strong> The range of forecasts for the Fed\u2019s end-2025 rate target is unusually wide, spanning from 3.00-3.25% on the lower end to 4.50-4.75% on the high end.<\/p>\n

The uncertainty is all thanks to Trump:<\/strong> The Fed and economic analysts alike have been bracing for the impact of Trump\u2019s policies since his election win in November 2024, with officials indicating that they are reluctant to make additional cuts until the full effect of his policies becomes clear. The Fed declined to make a rate cut<\/a> at the last meeting of its Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on 29 January, prompting Trump to deride the decision before making a sharp about-face<\/a> several days later.<\/p>\n

The US president\u2019s recently imposed tariffs are a key part of the picture<\/strong>, with ING Economist James Knightley telling Reuters that \u201cthe tariffs are inflationary and could be quite negative for economic growth as well.\u201d Trump has already imposed a 10% tariff on USD 450 bn worth<\/a> of Chinese goods and 25% tariffs on steel aluminum imports<\/a> and vowed to impose reciprocal tariffs matching those imposed by other US trade partners. The president has also threatened to impose 25% tariffs<\/a> on US imports from Mexico and Canada, with the measures on hold until 1 March<\/a> as the neighboring countries continue to negotiate over border security.<\/p>\n

Analysts have broadly reconsidered their inflation forecasts since Trump\u2019s win<\/strong>, with 90% of the economists that participated in both the October 2024 and February 2025 Reuters polls revising their 2025 inflation estimates upward by an average of 40 basis points between the two polls.<\/p>\n

We may not get more clarity on the Fed\u2019s long-term vision for interest rate cuts for quite a <\/strong>while:<\/strong> \u201cThe uncertainty is likely enough to keep Fed officials on the sidelines over the coming months, and if high tariffs are ultimately imposed then the subsequent rise in inflation will prevent further easing over the remainder of 2025,\u201d Capital Economics\u2019 Neil Shearing told the newswire.<\/p>\n

MARKETS THIS MORNING- <\/p>\n

Asian markets are in the green in early trading this morning <\/strong>\u2014 Japan\u2019s Nikkei is looking at gains of 0.4%, the Shanghai Composite is up 0.1%, and Kospi is up 0.2%. <\/p>\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

ADX<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

9,639<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.1% (YTD: +2.3%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

DFM<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

5,336<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+1.4% (YTD: +3.4%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Nasdaq Dubai UAE20<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

4,470<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+1.1% (YTD: +7.3%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

USD : AED<\/strong> CBUAE<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Buy 3.67<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Sell 3.67<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

EIBOR<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

4.1% o\/n<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

4.3% 1 yr<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

TASI<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

12,424<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.4% (YTD: +3.2%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

EGX30<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

29,564<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-1.1% (YTD: -0.6%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

S&P 500<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

6,069<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

0.0% (YTD: +3.2%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

FTSE 100<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

8,777<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.1% (YTD: +7.4%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Euro Stoxx 50<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

5,391<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.6% (YTD: +10.1%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Brent crude<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 76.78<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+1.2%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Natural gas (Nymex)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 3.52<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+2.2%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Gold<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 2,933<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.1%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

BTC<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 95,926<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-1.5% (YTD: +2.8%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n

THE CLOSING BELL-<\/strong><\/p>\n

The ADX rose 0.1% yesterday<\/strong> on turnover of AED 1.5 bn. The index is up 2.3% YTD.<\/p>\n

In the green: <\/strong>Aldar Properties (+7.1%), Rak Properties (+5.6%) and Apex Investment (+5.4%).<\/p>\n

In the red: <\/strong>Lulu Retail (-9.8%), Eshraq Investment (-3.9%) and Bildco (-3.7%). <\/p>\n

Over on the DFM<\/strong>, the index rose 1.4% on turnover of AED 952.6 mn. Meanwhile Nasdaq Dubai closed up 1.1%.<\/p>\n

CORPORATE ACTIONS-<\/p>\n

Investcorp Capital approved the distribution of USD 56.3 mn (AED 206.0 mn) in interim <\/strong>dividends for 2H 2024<\/strong>, according to an ADX disclosure (pdf)<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The US Federal Reserve is now expected to hold off on cutting interest rates until at least next quarter<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":100632,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1553],"tags":[7,48,50],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-100631","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-planet-finance","tag-enterpriseam-uae","tag-financial-markets","tag-planet-finance","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"b1e25373-5ea0-4b23-b61f-7d1e77428c47","order":"10","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2025\/2\/1109.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"Trump\u2019s tariffs could delay Fed rate cuts as inflation risks rise","related_issue":[100613],"teaser":"The US Federal Reserve is now expected to hold off on cutting interest rates until at least next quarter","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2025\/2\/.450fa7f7-09bf-491e-baec-8acaeb9246cf.mp3"},"yoast_head":"\nTrump\u2019s tariffs could delay Fed rate cuts as inflation risks rise - 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