{"id":100194,"date":"2025-01-30T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-01-30T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/uae\/fitchs-bmi-revises-uae-growth-forecast-down-slightly-for-2025-remains-optimistic-for-2026\/"},"modified":"2025-01-30T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2025-01-30T00:00:00","slug":"fitchs-bmi-revises-uae-growth-forecast-down-slightly-for-2025-remains-optimistic-for-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/uae\/2025\/01\/30\/fitchs-bmi-revises-uae-growth-forecast-down-slightly-for-2025-remains-optimistic-for-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Fitch\u2019s BMI revises UAE growth forecast down slightly for 2025, remains optimistic for 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"

Fitch Solutions\u2019 research unit BMI has revised its forecast for the UAE\u2019s economy this <\/strong>year to 5.1%,<\/strong> slightly down from 5.2% predicted in October<\/a>, BMI economists said during a webinar. The oil economy, which accounts for about 25% of GDP, is set to benefit from the gradual unwinding of Opec+\u2019s supply cuts<\/a> starting April 2025, they explained, adding that oil production is expected to grow at a 4% clip this year, after seeing relatively flat growth in 2024. <\/p>\n

\u201cThe UAE economy will be the fastest among the GCC economies,\u201d <\/strong>BMI\u2019s MENA Senior Country Risk Analyst Mariette Hanna said. BMI sees oil GDP growing at a 3.1% clip this year, while the non-oil sector is expected to grow further on the back of easing inflationary pressures, especially in the transportation sector, lower borrowing costs, and large infrastructure and construction projects across all emirates.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ongoing progress in diversification, coupled with high-income population growt<\/strong>h, will boost foreign investment <\/strong>in sectors such as real estate, finance and technology, Hanna added. <\/p>\n

\u201cNon-oil trade will continue to benefit from the signing of the comprehensive econom<\/strong>ic partnership agreements,\u201d <\/strong>Hanna said, adding that recent data showed that non-oil trade expanded by 15% y-o-y in value and 6.5% y-o-y in volume in the first nine months of 2024. <\/p>\n

BMI expects lower oil prices due to the growth in production to affect oil exports and <\/strong>revenues<\/strong>, which will narrow the UAE\u2019s fiscal surplus from 3.7% of GDP in 2024 to 2.2% in 2025. It also sees the current account surplus narrowing from 8.1% of GDP in 2024 to 7.2% of GDP in 2025.<\/p>\n

BMI\u2019s forecast for this year is more optimistic than others\u2019: <\/strong>The International Monetary Fund<\/a> and the World Bank<\/a> revised their forecasts for the UAE\u2019s economy this year to 4%. Meanwhile, the Central Bank of the UAE (CBUAE) penciled in<\/a> a higher growth estimate of 4.5% in 2025 in December. <\/p>\n

It\u2019s even more optimistic about 2026, penciling in a higher estimate of 6% GDP growth<\/strong>, with its oil and gas team predicting 10% growth in oil production in the Gulf state next year once Opec+ supply cuts are lifted.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Fitch Solutions\u2019 research unit sees the economy growing at 6% next year<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":100195,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1556],"tags":[19,7,693,20],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-100194","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam-uae","tag-fitch-ratings","tag-gdp","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"d26af25a-1b70-4bb5-983d-6a308301755c","order":"3","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2025\/1\/2245.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"Fitch\u2019s BMI revises UAE growth forecast down slightly for 2025, remains optimistic for 2026","related_issue":[100189],"teaser":"The Fitch Solutions\u2019 research unit sees the economy growing at 6% next year","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2025\/1\/.5288ce13-0ed6-40be-9814-6d2a0ebbf296.mp3"},"yoast_head":"\nFitch\u2019s BMI revises UAE growth forecast down slightly for 2025, remains optimistic for 2026 - 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