Good morning, friends. It’s another busy morning on the diplomacy front, after President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed wrapped his visit to China, with a healthy dose of M&A and macro news to close out the week. Let’s dive in.
WEATHER- It’s another foggy morning in Dubai as we gear up for a high of 42°C and a sweltering 44°C tomorrow, with overnight lows ranging between 30-31°C. Abu Dhabi is still a lot cooler with a high of 37°C today and 34°C tomorrow.
WATCH THIS SPACE-
#1- Vehicle ins. premiums to see double-digit hikes: Vehicle owners will encounter double-digit hikes in motor ins. premiums as insurers introduce dynamic pricing based on how specific vehicle models performed during the floods and shift towards no agency repair options, Gulf News reports. InsuranceMarket.ae CEO Avinash Babur warns of average premium hikes of 20-25%, primarily driven by reinsurer pressure, affecting all major car models, including SUVs, in upcoming renewals.
Fleet vehicles are set to see ins. rates climb by 40-50% on the back of post-flood damage, with individual car owners facing hikes of 35-40%, especially pronounced in the secondhand market where rates have soared over 55%, an unnamed official at an ins. brokerage firm said.
Potential 2Q losses loom over ins. firms due to the surge in claims and financial strain on ins. companies, particularly those with weaker capital positions, Zawya reports. The deluge has prompted stock price declines across most insurers, with Dubai National Ins. experiencing a 27% drop and Abu Dhabi National Takaful experiencing a 20% drop, according to Century Financial Chief Investment Officer Vijay Valecha.
#2- HSBC is making a play in the private banking space, having hired 100 bankers last year for a push to “cater to the growing number of mn’aires and bn’aires moving to the Middle East,” Bloomberg writes, citing comments by Aladdin Hangari, who leads HSBC’s private banking push in our part of the world. Hangari namechecked the UAE, along with Saudi Arabia and Qatar, as areas of focus.
#3- President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan is attending the G7 summit in Italy next month, alongside his Turkish counterpart Tayyip Erdogan and several other African and South American leaders, Reuters reports, quoting the Rome government. Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohamed bin Salman could also be among those invited to attend the 13-15 June summit in Puglia, as the G7 looks to broaden the gathering beyond the US, UK, Canada, France, Germany, Japan, and Italy, to boost inclusivity, the newswire adds, citing an unnamed source.
HAPPENING NEXT WEEK-
#1- Dubai Chamber to head to Senegal, Morocco: The Dubai International Chamber will kick off a trade mission to Senegal and Morocco from 3 to 7 June as part of its African roadshow aimed at promoting and expanding Dubai-based companies’ foothold in the continent, according to a statement. The trade mission’s agenda will include holding meetings between Dubai-based companies and their counterparts in Senegal and Morocco, with a focus on exploring collaboration, expansion strategies, and forging new partnerships and trade agreements.
#2- S&P Global will publish PMI figures for May next Wednesday. The non-oil sector continued to expand in April, though at a slightly slower pace due to the impacts of the storm.
THE BIG STORY ABROAD-
One single story captivates the attention of the foreign press this morning: Donald Trump is now the first US president in history to be a convicted felon, after being found guilty on all charges in the hush-money case.
Sentencing is set for 11 July, only days before the Republican party is expected to hand in its formal nomination of Trump ahead of the elections.
Is he going to prison? In short, probably not — experts do not expect him to face prison time. The normal sentencing for his crime is up to four years, but people charged with the felony of falsifying business records rarely face prison time, and his age and lack of a criminal record also boost his chances. His team is also expected to appeal the verdict, a process which can take months, Politico reports.
The story is on all the front pages: Bloomberg | Reuters | WSJ | FT | Washington Post
Can he still run for president? Yes, he is legally still able to campaign as a convicted felon, even if he is incarcerated.
Also putting the US in headlines: A Politico exclusive claims the Biden administration has allowed Ukraine to strike inside Russia using US weapons — near the area of Kharkiv — in self-defense in a development that threatens to see more US involvement in the war.
IN AI NEWS- Is the US slowing AI exports to the Middle East? US officials are reportedly conducting a “national review” of AI security in the Middle East ahead of issuing more licenses to chipmakers including Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices to export more large-scale AI infrastructure to the region, Bloomberg reports. While the details of the review are not clear, sources say that Washington is looking to develop a “comprehensive strategy” around the deployment of US chips overseas and managing their security, amid rising tensions with China.
The good news? Cooperation with the UAE on AI export controls is going well, one of the sources said.
REMEMBER- The UAE is in line for big AI investments and exports from the US. Microsoft is investing some USD 1.5 bn in G42 to position the UAE as a “global AI hub,” and a “second phase” of the agreement could see the US tech giant exporting large-scale AI components from the US to the UAE, which will require licenses, we reported earlier. G42 has already cut ties with Chinese businesses in a bid to reportedly appease US partners, and there were suggestions it could also give up its use of Huawei telecom equipment.
ALSO HAPPENING CLOSE TO HOME- Aramco is pulling the trigger on a secondary sale of a 0.64% stake that could raise up to USD 12 bn on Sunday, it confirmed in a statement (pdf) yesterday. The oil giant set the price range between SAR 26.70 and 29 per share.
The value of the sale could go up to USD 13.1 bn at the top end of the range under a “greenshoe option” which could see the size of the offering go up to a 0.7% stake if fully exercised, according to the statement. The option would allow bankers to buy some of the shares to stabilize the price of the offering. The book building period will last until 6 June, the statement added.
A way to boost liquidity…: “The offering provides us with an opportunity to broaden the shareholder base amongst both Saudi and international investors,” Reuters quotes Aramco CRO Amin Nasser as telling reporters on a call after the announcement. “It also offers us an opportunity to increase liquidity and to increase our global index weighting.”
…and plug the budget deficit: The Kingdom is “resorting to the sale of equity in Aramco and to debt issuances,” Nasser is quoted as saying, citing its USD 21 bn budget deficit and its missed FDI target.
AND- Opec+ is reportedly working on a “complex” agreement to extend oil supply cuts through to the end of the year — and maybe next year — while agreeing to individual output capacity, Reuters reports ahead of the cartel’s Sunday meeting.
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CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-
Abu Dhabi will play host to a big night for mixed martial arts fans on 3 August at Etihad arena. The UFC Fight Night will see the return of MMA champion Nick Diaz, who has been out of the limelight since 2021, as he goes head to head with Tony Ferguson, UFC CEO Dana White said. Also set to clash: Former flyweight champion Deiveson Figueiredo will face bantamweight title challenger Marlon Vera, while world number 2 bantamweight contender Cory Sandhagen will headline against Umar Nurmagomedov.
The International Sports Medicine Conference is set to take place from 24-27 October in Dubai, Wam reports. The event, which is being organized by the UAE National Olympic Committee, Emirates Society for Sports and Rehabilitation Medicine, and the Emirates Physical Therapy Association, aims to highlight the latest developments in sports medicine.
Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.


