Good morning, lovely people. It’s an unusually busy Monday morning, led by updates on the government’s fiscal surplus last year, as well as fresh data on FDI inflows into Dubai and the UAE. Plus: Adnoc is eyeing IPOs for USD 80 bn XRG and for its JV with Presight, AIQ.
WEATHER- It’s a mostly cloudy day today, with temperatures reaching 33°C today in Dubai before dropping to an overnight low of 24°C, according to our favorite weather app and the National Center of Meteorology’s forecast (pdf). Meanwhile, in Abu Dhabi, temperatures will peak at 24°C, with a low of 22°C.
So, when do we eat? Maghrib is at 6:29pm today in Dubai and 6:33pm in Abu Dhabi. You’ll have until fajr prayers at 5:15am in Dubai and 5:20am in Abu Dhabi tomorrow to finish your sohour.
WATCH THIS SPACE-
#1- Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc) is looking to snap up natural gas producing fields in the US, sources familiar with the matter told Bloomberg. The potential acquisitions will aim to support its existing US assets and enhance its access to fuel and feedstock for its chemical plants and liquefied natural gas (LNG) export facilities in the US. The oil-producing giant would also benefit from local price increases and reduce its exposure from fuel purchases, Bloomberg said.
HAPPENING THIS WEEK- Adnoc’s CEO Sultan Al Jaber is scheduled to discuss Adnoc’s investment strategy — including in the US during energy conference CERA Week in Houston tomorrow, before heading to meetings in Washington.
Adnoc has been ramping up its US presence: Adnoc acquired an 11.7% stake in the first phase of sustainable LNG producer NextDecade’s USD 18 bn Rio Grande LNG export facility in Texas back in May 2024. It also took on a 35% stake in ExxonMobil’s proposed low-carbon hydrogen and ammonia production facility in Texas, which it later transferred to its ammonia arm Fertiglobe. Just a few weeks ago, Adnoc and Austria’s OMV agreed to merge their polyolefins businesses, creating a USD 60 bn global polyolefins JV and acquiring Nova Chemicals, which has facilities on the US Gulf coast. The company’s USD 80 bn lower-carbon energy and chemicals firm XRG is set to assume ownership of Adnoc’s shares in all US facilities
#2- GCC Interconnection to award tender for UAE expansion within two months: The GCC Interconnection Authority (GCCIA) is evaluating bids for the expansion of the Gulf Electricity Interconnection Project with the UAE as part of a rush to award tenders by mid-year and complete the projects by 2027, GCCIA CEO Ahmed Al Ibrahim told Al Riyadh. The USD 205 mn UAE expansion will be fully financed by the Abu Dhabi Fund for Development. Bids from Gulf companies will be given priority, Al Ibrahim said, adding that it has already received 8-10 bids for the expansion with the UAE and Oman.
Demand is on the rise: Energy trade volume between GCC countries is set to increase to 1.8 TW/h this year, compared to 1.3 TW/h in 2024, Al Ibrahim predicts. Power purchase agreements have already been signed between GCC countries for quantities that may surpass 1 GW/h, an increase from 840 MW/h in 2024.
REMEMBER- The Gulf Electricity Interconnection Project stretches over 1km from Kuwait to Oman and plans to connect all six gulf countries. The expansion of the connection to the UAE will involve the connection of two 400-kilovolt lines that will see the transmission capacity increase from 1.2 GW to 3 GW.
#3- Sharjah’s economy is expected to grow by 7.5% this year on the back of “smarter policies, more economic integration and foreign investments in key sectors,” which have helped the emirate attract companies from a number of different sectors, Khaleej Times quotes Sheikh Fahim Bin Sultan Bin Khalid Al Qasimi, executive chairman of the Department of Government Relations, as saying. “Sharjah’s economy is in great shape,” Al Qasimi said, adding that the economy grew 6.5% in 2023, with its size averaging USD 45 bn.
Real estate could have a larger role to play in the emirate’s growth this year: “I think 2025 would see real estate growing due to great developers that we have like Alef, Arada and other private sector players that are investing here,” Al Qasimi added.
DATA POINTS-
#1- Dubai saw the third highest price growth for the prime residential segment in 2024, according to Knight Frank’s 2025 WealthReport(pdf), with prices growing 16.9% by 3Q 2024, and projected to reach 20% for the full year. Over the 12 months leading up to September 2024, Dubai saw 388 luxury property sales exceeding USD 10 mn, totaling USD 6.5 bn and accounting for 20% of global transactions across 12 major markets, including New York. Since 2019, luxury real estate prices in the emirate have surged 147%, the highest growth rate among global markets.
#2- UAE’s digital trade exports hit USD 47.9 bn in 2023: The UAE’s digital service exports grew 5% y-o-y to USD 47.9 bn in 2023, buoyed by a number of Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreements (CEPAs), Wam reports, citing Foreign Trade Minister Thani bin Ahmed Al Zeyoudi. Digital trade now accounts for over 63% of global services exports, spanning fintech, ins., consulting, and software development.
The UAE’s CEPAs include dedicated digital trade provisions, providing Emirati businesses with expanded international market access. The agreements also streamline intellectual property protections, ensuring faster trademark and patent recognition in partner countries.
PSA-
Corporate tax registration approaching: The UAE Federal Tax Authority (FTA) is reminding businesses to register for the corporate tax by 31 March, 2025, if their 2024 turnover exceeded AED 1 mn, Wam reports. This applies to sole proprietors, joint venture partners, and other individuals engaged in business activities, whether residents or non-residents.
REMINDER- The first Corporate Tax Return must be submitted by 30 September, 2025. Non-compliance may result in a AED 10k penalty.
THE BIG STORY ABROAD-
It’s a quiet Monday morning in the global press, with no single story dominating the headlines. Among those worth noting:
#1- Ceasefire talks to bear fruit? A US envoy believes Hamas and Israel could reach a new ceasefire agreement within weeks. “I will say that I believe there is enough there to make a deal between what Hamas wants and what they’ve accepted and what Israel wants and it’s accepted,” envoy for hostages Adam Boehler told CNN’s State of the Union yesterday after holding talks with Hamas representatives. The new ceasefire agreement will see Hamas release the remaining 59 Israeli hostages.
IN CONTEXT- The news comes following Israel cutting electricity supplies to Gaza, which comes only days after Israel started blocking the entry of all humanitarian aid into Gaza in an effort to pressure Hamas into accepting amendments to the truce agreement. (Bloomberg | BBC | AP)
#2- Canada selects new prime minister: Former Governor of the Bank of Canada Mark Carney was elected to succeed Justin Trudeau as prime minister by the country’s Liberal Party. Carney will take office amid tensions with the US under President Donald Trump, who has recently slapped new trade restrictions on Canadian exports. (Reuters | AP | The Guardian | CNN)
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MARKET WATCH-
Oil prices have dropped to a three-year low amid rising supply, weakening demand, and the ongoing US trade war, with crude trading near USD 70 a barrel, Bloomberg reports. Morgan Stanley now sees Brent crude averaging USD 70 this year, down USD 5 from its previous forecast, while Goldman Sachs sees risks of prices falling below the USD 70-85 range at which they’ve been trading.
Middle Eastern crude premiums have also declined as demand for alternative supplies to Russian and Iranian barrels fell. This trend was supported by China’s shift in refining strategy, which has favored Iranian oil transported in small tankers over gasoline and diesel production.
Background: Opec+ maintaining its plan to revive supply, along with the increasing output from Kazakhstan and non-OPEC+ nations, has led to market oversupply concerns. Russia’s willingness to discuss a temporary truce in Ukraine has also eased geopolitical risks, further weighing on oil prices.
Several factors could limit a further drop: The Trump administration is threatening to cut Iran’s oil exports by more than 90% and may revoke Chevron’s license to operate in Venezuela, potentially removing significant supply from the market. The US energy secretary is also seeking USD 20 bn to replenish its strategic petroleum reserve, which could increase demand for crude oil. Meanwhile, the possibility of renewed conflict between Israel and Hamas could drive prices higher.
CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-
TheFastBull Finance Summit will take place on Wednesday, 16 April and Thursday, 17 April at Coca Cola Arena in Dubai. The event will cover global finance, the foreign exchange market, and blockchain financial technology, with economist Jim Rogers delivering a keynote speech.
TheSocietyfor Incentive Travel Excellence Global Conference will take place in Abu Dhabi from Tuesday, 12 February and run till Sunday, 15 February 2026, marking the first time the event is held in the Middle East. The event will bring together incentive travel industry professionals to discuss the latest business strategies and trends in the field.
Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.


