Dubai property prices begin to cool down in 3Q 2025 -Digital Dubai

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

THIS MORNING: Yachts set to move more easily between Dubai and Abu Dhabi + Scrap metal now subject to VAT reverse charge mechanism

Good morning, friends, and happy Christmas Eve Eve (if you know, you know). The slowdown continues and the pile of OOO emails in our inbox is bigger than ever, but an update on Dubai’s property sector in 3Q 2025 and several regulatory and tax updates are keeping us busy.

Dubai’s property market has been going from strength to strength — but analysts have been forecasting a slowdown for a while now, and the official data says it’s beginning to take shape. 3Q 2025 saw the first decline in prices on a q-o-q basis since at least before 2024, though commercial property prices are still on the up amid tight supply.

Also: The Federal Tax Authority has added scrap metals to its growing VAT reverse charge mechanism list, while yachts will soon be more easily able to move between Dubai and Abu Dhabi.

^^ We have everything you need to know on this and more in the news well, below.

PSAs

#1- Smooth sailing for foreign yachts moving between Dubai and Abu Dhabi: From January 2026, visiting yachts will be able to move between Dubai and Abu Dhabi under a single, consolidated protocol that mutually recognizes sailing permits and eliminates duplicate local entry and exit procedures, according to a statement.

What’s changing: Vessel, crew, and passenger data will be shared via an early inquiry system API to avoid repeat checks, and visiting yachts will not need to issue a permit for each emirate.

Why it matters: The UAE is gunning for regional yachting hub status, and has been working to strengthen its appeal as a maritime tourism destination, with superyacht owners becoming eligible for a golden visa earlier this year.

The UAE is extending its crackdown on VAT leakage to the scrap metals sector, shifting the responsibility for VAT payments to buyers rather than suppliers as of 14 January of next year, according to a statement.

Good news and bad news for industrial operators and recyclers: The move is a bit of a double-edged sword for suppliers, who now don’t need to pay the 5% VAT upfront but have a much bigger compliance burden, as they are now required to verify a buyer’s tax registration number (TRN) and obtain written declarations before a transaction, or face being personally liable for the tax.

This marks the third time the FTA cracks down on VAT leakage, after the FTA introduced the same mechanism earlier in the year for precious metals and gemstones traders, and for electronic devices earlier in 2023.

Spot the pattern: The FTA is systematically targeting industries with high “informal” trade volumes and complex supply chains.

WEATHER- It’s a sunny day today, with a high of 25°C and a low of 15°C in Dubai, while in Abu Dhabi, the mercury rises to 24°C with a low of 15°C.

Sign of the times

The court vs AI — round one: The ADGM has issued the UAE’s first ruling squarely addressing AI misuse in judicial filings against lawyers who filed documents containing fabricated legal citations, according to statements here (pdf) and here (pdf). The claim was brought by regional law firm Matouk Bassiouny.

Hallucinations aren’t cheap: The court ordered AED 282.5k in wasted costs against the lawyers behind the filings, with the defendant separately picking up another AED 245k tab.

The takeaway: AI wasn’t banned or blamed, but the judge called the failure to verify AI research “reckless,” drawing a clear line — machines can assist, but liability stays human.

This is unlikely to be a one-off. “This is the first judgment in the UAE to address the misuse of AI in legal practice and establish clear guidelines,” Ahmed Tony, partner at Matouk Bassiouny, told EnterpriseAM UAE, calling it “an important reference for courts and regulators across the UAE and the region.” He added that the judgment could prompt UAE regulators to issue formal guidance on AI use in legal practice.

Expect closer scrutiny: Courts will now hold lawyers accountable “regardless of how the research was conducted,” Tony said, warning that fabricated citations and misleading material are becoming easier to detect as courts and opposing counsel grow familiar with “the hallmarks of AI output.”

Don’t ditch AI: “The integration of AI tools into legal practice is inevitable,” Tony said, adding that firms adopting them “with appropriate safeguards will gain a competitive advantage,” while those that do not will “find themselves behind.” That edge, he said, hinges on clear verification protocols and an understanding of the tools’ limits.

What to watch: This is a first, not a rulebook. The real test is whether it gets cited, and whether courts or regulators move to formalize how AI can (and can’t) be used in professional practice.

Data point: Construction

AED 335.6 bn — the value of construction contracts awarded in the UAE in 9M 2025, Al Ittihad reports, citing BNC Network data. That’s up from AED 325.9 bn a year earlier, with the UAE accounting for 48.8% of total GCC contract awards. The figure builds on momentum we’ve tracked all year: in 1H 2025, the UAE recorded USD 39.7 bn (c. AED 145.8 bn) in contract values, with sector output on track to reach c. AED 480.9 bn by 2029.

The read-through: Real estate remains the engine. Property-related projects made up 64.7% of awards, rising 16.7% y-o-y to AED 217 bn as residential and mixed-use development continues at pace. Utilities spending also more than doubled to AED 46.7 bn, as the boom extends beyond housing and into infrastructure and industry.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

It’s a mixed bag in the global business press as ink-stained wretches the world over long for their Christmastime news slowdown. There’s no single story dominating the front pages, but among the bits and pieces about which you should know:

Apollo Global is “building up cash, cutting leverage and selling out of riskier corners of debt markets” as top execs there get ready for market turbulence. The firm’s CEO says that will put Apollo in the best position possible “when something bad happens” and leave it well-positioned to invest during turmoil he expects to come on the back of “challenging” credit and equity markets. Must read: Apollo cuts risk and stockpiles cash in preparation for market turmoil (Financial Times)

Speaking of credit markets: Tech companies around the world have taken on record debt in the race to build out AI capacity, issuing some USD 428 bn in bonds through the first week of December.

Meanwhile:

Washington’s pivot away from green energy continues: The Trump administration has suspended leases at all large offshore wind projects in the United States.
A bonkers M&A: Oracle boss Larry Ellison is pledging USD 40 bn of his own money to backstop Paramount’s USD 108 bn hostile bid for WarnerBros Discovery.
A pill form of Wegovy, the GLP-1 drug for weight loss, got signoff in America overnight.

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CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.

Dubai residential property prices cool as commercial prices continue to rise on tight supply

Residential property growth (finally) cools, though commercial property is still red hot: Official data from Dubai Data and Statistics Establishment confirms what analysts have been saying for months now — that the property market is entering a cooling phase after several years of outsized gains.

Annual residential price growth slowed to 7.5% in 3Q 2025, down from around 11% in 2Q, according to the data (pdf). The divergence points to a maturing residential cycle even as parts of the commercial market continue to see firm pricing momentum.

It’s not broad-based: The commercial sector is still showing late-cycle strength, with prices accelerating 13% y-o-y from 10.2% last year, according to separate data (pdf).

Villas volatile, flats steady: Annual price growth for villas eased to around 9% in 3Q from 18.3% in 2Q, while on a q-o-q basis, prices fell 2.1%, separate DDSE data (pdf) shows. Apartment prices showed more stability, rising 6.8% y-o-y and 1.1% q-o-q. The trend held up from 2Q, when — as we previously reported — villa prices were up 18.3% y-o-y, as opposed to just 7.6% price growth for apartments.

Commercial property pricing was more nuanced in 3Q. Office prices continued to drive overall growth, with prices up 21.9% y-o-y, pushing the headline commercial index up c.13% y-o-y.

On a quarterly basis, commercial property prices increased 3.69%, accelerating from 2.2% in 2Q, according to separate DDSE data (pdf). Shops and hotel rooms recorded the weakest momentum in the quarter, while offices and hotel apartments continued to show relative resilience.

REMEMBER- Oversupply on the residential front is causing market pressures…: As we’ve reported, developers face growing supply risks, with over 350k homes registered for delivery between 2026-2030 — nearly double Dubai’s historical average. Even assuming 70% completion, annual deliveries would average 66k units, creating potential headwinds in districts like Jumeirah Village Circle, Dubai South, Expo City, and Dubailand.

…while tight supply on the commercial front is driving price momentum: New office supply remains limited, with only some 1 mn sq ft of space due by early 2026 already largely pre-leased, keeping pressure on availability in established business districts.

Looking ahead

Analysts expect slower gains in 2026. Knight Frank forecasts prime residential prices rising 3% and mainstream apartments 1%, while Fitch has been forecasting a 10-15% correction.

Mubadala is now a joint owner of Romanian renewables player Rezolv

Mubadala completed its acquisition of European renewables player Rezolv: Abu Dhabi sovereign investor Mubadala has finalized its investment of around EUR 300 mn to invest alongside Actis in Rezolv Energy, a fast-growing renewable power platform in Central and Eastern Europe, extending its strategy of backing scaled clean energy platforms rather than single-asset projects, according to a press release.

The acquisition received regulatory clearance in September, and sees Mubadala and Actis take joint control of the firm, according to a filing (pdf) by the European Commission.

Why it matters

The investment gives Mubadala exposure to some 750 MW of renewable capacity under construction in Romania and Bulgaria and a further 1.55 GW pipeline in advanced development. Flagship assets include the 1 GW Dama solar project in Romania, billed as Europe’s largest solar power plant.

The pattern: The transaction comes as part of a broader renewables investment push from Mubadala, with the sovereign wealth fund investing in Skyborn Renewables (offshore wind), Tata Power Renewables in India, and UK-based battery storage group Zenobē.

Our take

Central and Eastern Europe is a growing market for utility-scale renewables, driven by EU climate targets, industrial demand, and energy security priorities. Mubadala’s investment gives it access to a structured, operationally mature platform, reducing development risk while accelerating renewable deployment across multiple markets and supporting its long-term energy transition goals.

Internal Audit: from reactive guard to proactive navigator

As digital channels become the sole interface for customer service, our responsibilities extend beyond merely protecting the institution; we must guarantee operational resilience and safeguard the entire ecosystem where customers reside. The traditional audit focus on “Disaster Recovery” is obsolete. Today, the measure of success is business continuity. For a digital bank like Mashreq, where our expanded digital footprint increases exposure, this means ensuring that our channels remain resilient enough to provide consistent service, even when faced with an adverse event.

Historically, internal audit has provided a necessary, but retrospective, view of risk. We assessed historical data and past events to predict the future. However, the complexity of modern threats — from sophisticated cybersecurity attacks to emerging regulatory pressures like ESG (environmental, social, and governance) — is simply moving too fast for a traditional, periodic approach. We must make a decisive move toward a proactive role. Our goal is to forecast and mitigate emergent risks rather than merely react to them after they have crystallized.

Achieving this proactive stance requires two key actions. First, we must embrace risk intelligence integration by embedding continuous auditing solutions. By leveraging advanced analytics and intelligence tools, we can analyze data in near real-time, drastically reducing the time it takes to identify risk exposures. Second, governance must serve as the cornerstone. This transformation is only sustainable within a strong governance framework. We must ensure clear accountability and strategic alignment between the board, executive management, and audit. Audit’s role is to act as a strong enabler, continuously educating the organization on our value and serving as a crucial balance in oversight.

This changing risk landscape necessitates a critical shift in the auditor’s skillset. In five years, the internal auditor’s job will look significantly different. The focus will move away from manual transaction review and traditional compliance checks. Instead, auditors will become managers of complex risk-sensing systems, overseeing advanced models, ensuring their transparency, and validating their output. This means a rapid upskilling is essential for the profession, building technological competencies and expertise to manage new domains like AI governance and integrate ESG considerations across all engagements. By embracing this change, Internal Audit transforms into a truly strategic partner, helping to build resilience and sustainable value creation for the bank.

Hassan Ali, Group Chief of Internal Audit at Mashreq

Boeing appoints Fahad Al Mheiri as new regional VP

Boeing taps new VP for MENA ops: US planemaker Boeing appointed Fahad Al Mheiri (LinkedIn) as its new vice president for Middle East and North Africa operations as of January, according to a press release. Al Mheiri — previously the managing director of Raytheon Emirates — will oversee Boeing’s regional partnerships and local investment projects in infrastructure as well as R&D.

Modon invests in Jersey Tower + Presight to roll out smart infrastructure program in Albania

Modon makes another US play-

ADQ-backed developer Modon Holding has taken an undisclosed majority stake in Harborside 4, a 54-story residential tower on Jersey City’s waterfront, via a joint venture with US real estate firms Related Companies and Panepinto Properties, according to a company disclosure (pdf). The project will deliver 800 homes, with construction slated for 1Q 2026 and completion targeted for 1Q 2029.

Follow the income: Around 75% of the units will be retained as rentals, framing Harborside 4 as a long-dated, recurring-income asset rather than a build-and-sell play.

ZOOM OUT- Modon is hunting foreign cashflows: Modon’s overseas wagers include:

Wellington International (US): Backing the Florida equestrian redevelopment;
La Zagaleta (Spain): Acquisition of the Costa del Sol luxury estate and pipeline;
Ras El Hekma (Egypt): Master developer on the USD 35 bn project;
Business Design Centre (UK): Exposure via its subsidiary Adnec Group after the BDCG acquisition.

Presight exports smart city AI program to Albania

ADX-listed Presight will roll out a nationwide smart infrastructure program in Albania after inking a multi-year contract with the country’s Internal Affairs Ministry, according to a press release (pdf). The AI-powered program — which builds on a letter of engagement signed earlier in February — will span 20 cities and 28 international border points.

What’s in scope: The AI and big data analytics firm will deploy an integrated smart city platform designed to digitalize and coordinate public services, including real-time urban operations management, AI-enabled traffic and mobility systems, advanced emergency response coordination, and a national command-and-control framework.

Albania adds to a growing roster of overseas mandates as Presight builds exposure outside the UAE. The firm currently operates in 20 countries, with agreements inked to enter markets in Uganda, Angola, Tanzania, and Kazakhstan. It opened its first international office in Kazakhstan in May and an R&D lab for smart cities in October.

Gold hits fresh records as central bank buying and rate-cut wagers fuel the rally

Gold hit a fresh record yesterday, climbing 2.4% to around USD 4.5k per ounce as the recent escalation of the US blockade on Venezuelan oil drove the rush to so-called “safe haven” assets. Silver also touched a new high, rising 3.4% to around USD 69.44 an ounce.

It has been a breakout year for gold: Gold is up about 68% YTD — its strongest annual performance since the late 1970s — driven by trade tensions, US fiscal anxiety, and growing doubts over central-bank independence, the Financial Times writes. Investors are increasingly turning to gold, not equities, as their hedge of choice.

Central banks are doing much of the heavy lifting: JPMorgan estimates gold demand from investors and official buyers surged to around 980 tonnes in 3Q, more than 50% above recent norms, with purchases expected to remain elevated into 2026.

What the pundits are saying: JPMorgan expects prices to break USD 5k by late 2026, while Goldman Sachs is close behind, penciling in a price of USD 4.9k by December 2026, citing Fed easing and structurally strong demand, Reuters and IDNFinancials report. Morgan Stanley, on the other hand, expects it to peak at USD 4.5k by mid-2026.

Positioning suggests the trade isn’t crowded — yet: JPMorgan estimates gold accounts for about 2.8% of global investor portfolios, up from 1.5% pre-2022 but still below levels seen in prior commodity supercycles, leaving room for allocations to rise toward 4-5%.

Still, warning lights are flashing: The BIS recently flagged “bubble-like” conditions in both gold and US equities — a rare overlap — cautioning that rapid price gains and retail inflows could leave bullion vulnerable to sharp pullbacks.

(** Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asian markets are in the green this morning, tracking gains on Wall Street. Leading gains are South Korea’s Kospi, up 0.6%, and the small-cap Kosdaq, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was up almost 0.3%, as China’s CSI 300 and Japan’s Nikkei are up marginally. Over on Wall Street, futures are near the flatline following yesterday’s gains.

ADX	10,036	+0.7% (YTD: +6.4%)
DFM	6,157.9	+0.7% (YTD: +19%)
Nasdaq Dubai UAE20	4,925	+1.6% (YTD: +6.7%)
USD : AED CBUAE	Buy 3.67	Sell 3.67
EIBOR	3.6% o/n	3.7% 1 yr
Tadawul	10,552	+0.7% (YTD: -12.3%)
EGX30	4,416.53	+0.1% (YTD: +43.1%)
S&P 500	6,879	+0.6% (YTD: +17.0%)
FTSE 100	9,866	-0.3% (YTD: +20.7%)
Euro Stoxx 50	5,744	-0.3% (YTD: +17.3%)
Brent crude	USD 62.07	+2.7%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 57.89	-0.2%
Gold	USD 4,486.40	+0.4%
BTC	USD 88,553.8	-0.7% (YTD: -5.5%)
Chimera JP Morgan UAE Bond UCITS ETF	AED 3.82	+0.5% (YTD: +9.7%)
S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk	151.80	0.0% (YTD: +8.5%)
VIX (Volatility Index)	14.08	-5.6% (YTD: -19.0%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The DFM rose 0.7% yesterday on turnover of AED 639.9 mn. The index is up 19% YTD.

In the green: Gulfnav (+14.6%), Takaful Emarat (+11.2%) and United Foods (+5.5%).

In the red: Sukoon Takaful (-8.5%), Chimera S&P UAE Shariah ETF- Share class B – Income

(-7.9%), and Aramex (-4.3%).

Over on the ADX, the index rose 0.7% on turnover of AED 2.1 bn. Meanwhile, Nasdaq Dubai was up 1.6%.

CALENDAR

DECEMBER

18-23 December (Thursday-Tuesday): Games of the Future, Adnec, Abu Dhabi.

26 December (Friday): Tender period for Emirates NBD’s offer for RBL Bank’s public shares ends.

29-30 December (Monday-Tuesday): World Sports Summit, Dubai.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2025:

e& will complete Adnoc’s private 5G network.

2026

JANUARY

1 January: Client asset regime changes in Dubai International Financial Center take effect.

1 January: Amendments to the Tax Procedures Law and the UAE VAT Law come into effect.

9-11 January (Friday-Sunday): 1 Bn Followers Summit, UAE.

11-12 January (Sunday-Monday): IRENA Assembly, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

11-15 January (Sunday-Thursday): Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week 2026, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

11-15 January (Sunday-Thursday): ADSW Dialogues, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

11-15 January (Sunday-Thursday): WiSER Forum, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

12-15 January (Monday-Thursday): Dubai International Project Management Forum, Madinat Jumeirah, Dubai.

12-15 January (Monday-Thursday): SteelFab, Expo Center, Sharjah.

13-15 January (Tuesday-Thursday): World Future Energy Summit, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

13-15 January (Tuesday-Thursday): FESPA Middle East, Dubai Exhibition Center, Dubai.

14 January (Wednesday): Global South Utilities Forum, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

15 January (Thursday): Global Climate Finance Center Annual Meeting, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

15 January (Thursday): Green Hydrogen Summit, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

21-24 January (Wednesday-Saturday): Acres real estate exhibition, Expo Center, Sharjah.

28-29 January (Wednesday-Thursday): IBA Arbitration Day Conference, Abu Dhabi.

28-30 January (Wednesday-Friday): World Customs Organization Technology Conference, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

31 January – 7 February (Saturday-Saturday): Mubadala Abu Dhabi Open, International Tennis Center, Zayed Sports City.

FEBRUARY

3-5 February (Tuesday-Thursday): The World Governments Summit.

4-6 February (Wednesday-Friday): Arab Actuarial Conference, Millennium Plaza Downtown Hotel, Dubai.

12-15 February (Thursday-Sunday): The Society for Incentive Travel Excellence Global Conference, Abu Dhabi.

9-13 February (Monday-Friday): The World Health Expo (WHX), Dubai.

10-11 February (Tuesday-Wednesday): Top Advisors and Investors Summit, Abu Dhabi.

MARCH

31 March – 2 April (Tuesday-Thursday): Arab Media Summit, Dubai.

26-28 March (Thursday-Saturday): Social Capital Conference, Dubai.

28-29 March (Saturday-Sunday): Emirates Congress on AI & Visionary leadership in Transforming Healthcare, Adnec Center Abu Dhabi.

30 March – 2 April (Monday-Thursday): IAAPA Middle East Exhibition and Conference, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

APRIL

7-9 April (Tuesday-Thursday): Future Health Summit, Adnec Center Abu Dhabi.

13-15 April (Monday-Wednesday): AIM Congress, Dubai World Trade Center.

13-15 April (Monday-Wednesday): The International Glass Manufacturing Show, Dubai.

14-16 April: (Tuesday-Thursday): the International Property Show, Sheikh Zayed Rd, Dubai.

21-23 April (Tuesday-Thursday): UITP Public Transport Summit, Dubai.

MAY

11-15 May (Monday-Friday): Dubai Future Finance Week, Dubai.

11-13 May (Monday-Wednesday): AI Everything Global, Adnec Center.

19-20 May (Tuesday-Wednesday): Capital Market Summit, Madinat Jumeirah, Dubai.

19-22 May (Tuesday-Friday): Abu Dhabi Water and Energy Week, Adnec Abu Dhabi Center, Abu Dhabi.

JUNE

15 June-15 September (Monday-Thursday): Dubai Mallathon, Dubai.

JULY

31 July (Friday): Large businesses achieving annual revenues equal to or above AED 50 mn must appoint an accredited service provider for e-invoicing implementation.

Signposted to happen sometime in October 2026:

Abu Dhabi Space Week, Abu Dhabi.

DECEMBER

2-4 December (Wednesday-Friday): UN Water Conference, UAE.

Signposted to happen in 2026:

The UAE to host the Arab Competition Forum;
Investopia Global Talks, Tashkent.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2027:

1 January: Deadline for large businesses to implement e-invoicing;
1Q 2027: Completion of the first phase of Hassyan seawater desalination project;
31 March: Small businesses with annual revenues of less than AED 50 mn are obliged to contract with an accredited service provider for e-invoicing implementation;
31 March: Government entities are required to appoint an accredited service provider for e-invoicing implementation;
1 July: Deadline for small businesses to implement e-invoicing;
1 October: Deadline for governments to implement e-invoicing;
Abu Dhabi’s solar and battery energy facility, combining 5.2 GW of solar capacity and 19 GWh of battery storage, is set for commissioning.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2029:

Sibos 2029 organized by the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT), Dubai;
The commissioning of the seventh phase of Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Solar Park.

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