Good morning, lovely people, and happy hump day. It’s definitely a news dump day here at home, with plenty of investment news, macro forecasts and analysis, including the latest Dubai inflation figures, and more keeping us busy this morning.

BUT FIRST- The Iran-Israel war conflict has now entered its sixth day, and the UAE is still working hard to push for de-escalation. Foreign Affairs Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan warned against “reckless and miscalculated” actions that could expand the conflict beyond the two countries’ borders, after news came out that US President Donald Trump is considering a strike against Iran.

UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan also phoned Iranian President Masoud Pezekhsian to discuss the developments, and expressed the UAE’s solidarity with Iran, state news agency Wam reported. He also discussed the conflict with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, continuing plenty of diplomatic discussions over the weekend with regional and international counterparts.

ALSO- The UAE Coast Guard safely evacuated 24 crew members from the oil tanker Adalynn after two oil tankers collided and caught fire near the Strait of Hormuz, off the Emirati coast near Khor Fakkan port, according to a statement on X and Reuters. The incident wasn’t directly related to the conflict, one of the vessel’s owners told Bloomberg, though electronic interference in the channel has risen since Israel and Iran have exchanged air strikes, disrupting navigation signals.

The US president reiterated his calls overnight for an unconditional surrender — needless to say in all caps — and threatening to kill Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and describing him as an “easy target.”

The real and growing concern is if Trump decides to turn words into actions and formally join Israel’s war on Iran, potentially using its more advanced hardware to target deep underground facilities that the Israelis are unable to. Pointing to the increased likelihood of the US’ direct involvement, Trump said the country’s patience was “wearing thin,” described how “we” have established dominance of Iranian airspace, and directed the forward deployment of the US air power. (Reuters | New York Times | Financial Times | Bloomberg | Guardian)

While the world’s attention turns to Iran, Israel’s starvation of Gaza and daily massacres have continued, the most recent of which saw 59 Palestinians slaughtered yesterday as Israeli tanks fired into crowds of people waiting for desperately needed food aid. The killing of those seeking aid in what the UN describes as the “the hungriest place on Earth” has become a depressingly familiar story coming out of the besieged strip in recent weeks, despite the entire population of Gaza being at risk of famine.

Elsewhere in the strip, at least another 14 people were killed, bringing the day’s death toll to at least 73. But with the conflict now in its 20th month and developing events elsewhere taking away diplomatic and media focus, the relative silence on Gaza in recent weeks has been deafening. (Reuters | New York Times | Financial Times | Guardian)

☀️ WEATHER- In Dubai, the mercury will reach a high of 42°C, though it will feel as hot as 57°C, before cooling down a bit to an overnight low of 32°C, according to our weather app. Temperatures in Abu Dhabi are a bit cooler, with an afternoon high of 35°C and an overnight low of 31°C.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- Middle East IPO pipeline holds steady amid geopolitical flare-up: IPOs in the region are staying the course despite escalating tensions between Israel and Iran, with pipelines in the UAE and broader GCC remaining intact, Bloomberg reports, citing statements from investment bankers in the region. Emirates NBD Capital say their IPO pipeline for the fall remains unchanged, with no IPOs lined up for this summer.

Large listings could face delays: While large, government-backed listings may be delayed, smaller, domestically focused IPOs remain on track, Al Rayan Investment’s acting CEO Akber Khan said. Brent’s rebound to near USD 75/bbl is also offering a buffer to GCC markets. Historically, the region has shrugged off short-lived geopolitical shocks, but analysts caution that a prolonged conflict could weigh on investor risk appetite.

What the pundits are saying: “The recent history for MENA equities is that markets realize quickly that a spasm of fighting does not impact the medium- to long-term economic and earnings trajectory,” Bloomberg cited JPMorgan Chase as saying in a note.

REMEMBER- It’s been a quiet year so far for IPOs, with just one listing each so far in Dubai and Abu Dhabi. Dubai Residential REIT’s AED 2.1 bn IPO has been a popular one, and followed Alpha Data’s ADX debut in March. Still in the pipeline: Dubai Holding is said to be mulling a second IPO for a portfolio of commercial real estate assets, including malls, hotels, and theme parks; ADQ-backed Etihad Airways and Abu Dhabi conglomerate International Holding Company’s investment arm 2PointZero are also planning to hit the ADX; family-owned property developer Arabian Construction Company (ACC) reportedly enlisted HSBC and First Abu Dhabi Bank to advise on its IPO due in 2H; and Dubizzle and Property Finder were gauging investor appetite ahead of potential listings.

#2- Mubadala Capital and Brazilian infrastructure firm Invepar agreed to a 15-day timeout as Invepar seeks to restructure its debt without going to court, a Mubadala spokesperson told Bloomberg. The company develops and operates transport infrastructure across highways, airports, and urban mobility sectors in Brazil and Peru.

The details: Invepar owes approximately BRL 650 mn (AED 434.7 mn) to Mubadala, tied to debentures issued in 2017, Valor International reports. Those notes are backed by major assets like the Linha Amarela expressway in Rio and a pledge related to the Guarulhos Airport concession, Brazil’s busiest airport.

The upside? Invepar is close to finalizing a settlement with the city of Rio de Janeiro over the Linha Amarela concession—a longstanding dispute that could improve its negotiating position with creditors, including Mubadala.

Credit watch: S&P is not feeling too optimistic—last month it slashed Invepar’s rating to D from CC.

#3- Abu Dhabi eyes AED 47 bn in infrastructure contracts for 2H: Abu Dhabi is looking to sign AED 47 bn worth of infrastructure projects with the private sector in 2H 2025, The National reports, citing comments made by Abu Dhabi Projects and Infrastructure Center (ADPIC) Director General Maysarah Salim Eid. ADPIC has inked AED 22 bn in public-private partnership contracts (PPPs) so far this year.

ICYMI- Abu Dhabi is planning on developing AED 450 bn worth in infrastructure projects over the next five to ten years.

PLUS- A new partnership with Mubadala: Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund Mubadala and ADPIC have partnered to jointly develop infrastructure projects across the emirate, according to a press release. The agreement covers feasibility studies, sustainable financing models, and knowledge sharing.

Gulf Schengen-style visa gets the greenlight? A unified tourist visa for all six GCC countries was given the green light and is expected to be implemented “soon,” Economy Minister Abdulla Bin Touq Al Marri told Khaleej Times on the sidelines of the UAE Hospitality Summer Camp press conference on Monday.

Why it matters: The GCC Grand Tours Visa is a Schengen-style system that will allow tourists to visit all six member states — the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, Oman, and Kuwait — on a single visa. It is poised to be a game-changer for regional tourism, boosting bleisure travel — where business visitors extend their stays to explore neighboring countries.

BACKGROUND- The initiative, now in the home stretch, was approved back in 2023 and is slated to launch later this year, though no specific date has been confirmed.

DATA POINT-

The hospitality sector brought in AED 13.5 bn in revenues during 1Q 2025, with hotel guests reaching 8.4 mn, up 2% y-o-y, Wam reports. The country recorded 29.3 mn hotel nights and an average occupancy rate of 81.3%.

PSAs-

#1- MoHAP rolls out digital fine collection system: The Health and Prevention Ministry (MoHAP) implemented a digital system to track and process fines across healthcare facilities, according to a MoHAP statement. The platform centralizes payment procedures through a single portal with technical support functions.

#2- Iranian nationals currently in the UAE are exempt from overstay fines, the Federal Authority for Identity, Citizenship, Customs & Port Security (ICP) said in an Xpost. The move is aimed at easing the burden on Iranian nationals unable to leave the country amid the ongoing Israel-Iran tensions and suspended flights across the region.

What to do: Affected individuals must register for the exemption via the ICP’s smart services platform or visit a nearby Customer Happiness Center.

HAPPENING TODAY-

#1- The US Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee will make a decision on interest rates today, with Gulf countries set to follow suit. The Fed is widely expected to maintain its current policy, keeping benchmark federal fund rates at 4.25%-4.50% during this week’s meeting as persistent tariff-related inflation and global uncertainties overshadow easing pressures, according to a Reuters poll of economists. Economists estimate the first cut won’t arrive until September, with another potential cut set to follow by the year-end.

#3- The Middle East Event Show is on its second and final day at the Dubai World Trade Center. Industry players from the events sector will meet for seminars, discussions, and networking sessions on the latest sector-specific trends.

#4- The Abu Dhabi Infrastructure Summit is also on its second and final day at the Abu Dhabi Energy Center. The event will see upwards of 70 speakers, 2k attendees, and 25 exhibitors meet to discuss urban planning, smart cities, mobility, energy, and healthcare.

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MARKET WATCH-

Global oil supplies are expected to outpace demand this year even as Middle East tensions heighten concerns over potential disruptions, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its annual report (pdf).

By the numbers: Oil production is forecast to grow by 1.8 mn bbl/d this year to reach 104.9 mn bbl/d, while demand is projected at 103.8 mn bbl/d — resulting in rising oil inventories throughout the year. The surplus is driven by Opec+ producers gradually reversing earlier output cuts and non-Opec+ producers contributing an additional 1.4 mn bbl/d on average.

Global inventories have been rising steadily, with storage levels increasing by an average of 1 mn bbl/d since February. In May alone, oil jumped to a “massive” 93 mn bbl/d — that said, total inventories remain 90 mn bbl below year-ago levels.

Long term outlook: Global oil supply will continue exceeding demand through 2030, with production capacity rising by 5 mn bbl/d to 114.7 mn bbl/d, according to the IEA. Demand is expected to grow more slowly, increasing by 2.5 mn bbl/d to a projected peak of 105.5 mn bbl/d by the end of the decade. A major factor in this slowdown is China, where consumption is now expected to peak in 2027, driven by the widespread adoption of electric vehicles, high-speed rail expansion, and gas-powered trucking.

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