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The UAE’s real GDP grew 4.2% in 1H 2025, state news agency Wam reports, citing statements from Economy and Tourism Minister Abdulla bin Touq Al Marri. The expansion was driven largely by the non-oil economy, which grew 5.7% in 1H 2025, bringing the share of non-oil activity to a record 77.5% of real GDP.
REMEMBER- The UAE’s GDP grew 3.9%in 1Q 2025, with non-oil GDP growing 5.3%.
The UAE’s tourism sector was one of the top seven destinations in the world in terms of expenditure, as the hospitality sector surged, after hotels welcomed 23.3 mn tourists in the first nine months this year, up 4.9% y-o-y. Hotel revenues inched up 7.2% y-o-y to AED 35.9 bn in the period. Meanwhile, hotel occupancy jumped to 79.2%, marking an increase of 1.8% y-o-y, supported by strong international visitor numbers and growth in domestic tourism, according to Al Marri. The number of occupied rooms was up 3.5% y-o-y to 46.2 mn rooms over this period, with the average daily rate surging 4.2% y-o-y to AED 557.
The big picture: The UAE is targeting a GDP of AED 3 tn by 2031. ICAEW expects the UAE’s economy to drive the GCC’s GDP growth in 2026, with our GDP forecast to accelerate from 4.9% this year to 5.6% in 2026. The CBUAE expects growth to reach 4.9% in 2025 and 5.3% in 2026. BMI is more optimistic, forecasting 5.2% growth in 2025 and 5.6% next year. Meanwhile, the IMF and World Bank estimate 4.8% growth in 2025 and 5% growth in 2026.
The non-oil economy outlook: Fitch Solutions’ research unit BMI sees non-oil GDP next year growing at a 5.3% clip this year and a 5.5% clip next year. NBK, on the other hand, is expecting non-oil economy to maintain robust growth of 4.8% this year, before falling slightly to 4.5% next year. Moody’s expects the non-oil sector to grow 4-5% between 2025 and 2026, supported by projects such as the Etihad Rail network and the unified Gulf visa launching next year, which should bolster tourism and investment flows.
ALSO – The UAE lured more than 220.2k new companies between January and November this year. National and international trademarks entering the local markets reached 36k by the end of November, jumping 48.2% y-o-y.
