Good morning, friends. We have a busy issue for you this morning, topped with the latest on non-oil activity in the UAE and Dubai in April, and news of Dubai Holding taking a stake in its residential REIT to market.

☀️ WEATHER– We’re finally back below the dreaded 40°C mark. Dubai will experience daytime highs of 39°C, with overnight lows of around 28°C. Abu Dhabi remains slightly cooler, with daytime temperatures peaking at 33°C and nighttime lows near 29°C.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

!_Ancho0r8_! #1- Saudi Arabia plans to invite all GCC leaders to a 14 May summit with US President Donald Trump, Axios reports, citing a US official and two Arab sources. The summit will be held before Trump takes off for the UAE and Qatar.

On the itinerary: The visit to the region highlights Trump’s administration’s push to deepen economic ties with Gulf countries while providing a platform to outline and rally support for US policy in the Middle East. Trump is set to discuss further Gulf investment commitments to the US, as well as the potential easing of access to Nvidia chips for the UAE and a broader bilateral chip agreement.

#2- Barter transactions to be subject to VAT: Barter transactions — which see goods or services exchanged without money — are set to be subject to value-added tax (VAT), the Federal Tax Authority clarified in a statement (pdf) last week. This requires VAT-registered persons to issue tax invoices when providing taxable goods or services even if no cash transaction is made.

The details: According to the FTA, transactions carried out through barter transactions may fall under different VAT categories depending on the type of service or goods exchanged — they may be subject to the standard 5% VAT rate, but they could also be zero-rated (meaning suppliers can reclaim taxes paid on costs of the items), or exempt entirely. The FTA clarified that the market value is the price that unrelated parties would otherwise agree on for the same good or service, or for a similar one, at the time that it is supplied. If those aren’t clear, the replacement cost of identical goods or service would determine the market value.

#3- Dubai plans to expand its data center capacity fivefold by 2028 through further partnerships with international players like Microsoft, Amazon Web Services, and by incentivizing investments from private firms, Dubai Data and Statistics CEO Younus Al Nasser told Al Bayan. Data centers in the emirates are expected to contribute AED 14.3 bn by 2028 to the UAE’s economy.

The current stocktake: Dubai currently hosts 16 of the country’s total 30 data centers, while data centers in the UAE account for 42% of the GCC total.

The UAE is aiming to invest in overseas data centers to expand its digital services footprint, with Al Nasser citing Dubai’s strategic location and advanced infrastructure as giving it a competitive advantage.

#4- MGM targets 2027 Dubai debut: Construction on MGM Resorts’ 26-acre beachfront mega-development in Dubai is progressing, with the project set to open in 3Q 2027, Khaleej Times cites CEO William Hornbuckle as saying during the company’s 1Q earnings call. The resort will feature an MGM Hotel, Bellagio Hotel, and MGM Residences — marking the Middle East debut of both brands — and could eventually include gaming if regulation allows.

Background: The project is being developed under a non-gaming management agreement with Wasl Hospitality, first signed in 2017. However, MGM executives, including Chairman Paul Salem, visited Dubai last month and met with Dubai Ruler Maktoum bin Mohammed to explore broader expansion possibilities.

MGM is eyeing a piece of the USD 5 bn gaming pie: The company applied for a casino license in Abu Dhabi last September, following the UAE’s move to establish a national gaming regulator in July. Analysts expect casinos to bring in USD 3-5 bn in revenues annually, as Ras Al Khaimah’s Wynn Al Marjan Island — the UAE’s first licensed integrated resort — heads toward an early 2027 opening after securing the country’s first commercial gaming license last October.

#5- Dubai is set to complete 57 major road projects by 2027, improving its transportation infrastructure with 115 bridges, tunnels, and 226 km of road, according to the Dubai Media Office. The projects are part of a wider plan to develop 11 primary road corridors to meet the needs of its growing population, which is predicted to hit 8 mn by 2040.

REMEMBER- The RTA unveiled a AED 16 bn plan in November for 2024-2027, including 22 new road, tunnel, and bridge projects. The upgrades are set to reduce congestion and travel times by as much as 35 minutes on key routes, including the Umm Suqeim-Al Qadra corridor, Hessa Street, and Sheikh Zayed Road.

Cycling infrastructure is also set to expand, with 100 km currently under construction and plans to build an additional 185 km to add to the emirate’s existing 557 km cycle paths, according to the statement. Dubai is also set to introduce autonomous taxis by 1Q 2026.

DATA POINTS-

#1- DFM and ADX fare better than regional rivals in April: Dubai and Abu Dhabi’s equity markets posted gains in April while other GCC indices slumped on the back of tariff uncertainty and volatility, according to the Kamco Invest GCC Markets Monthly Report (pdf). The DFM General Index saw the highest monthly gain in the GCC with a 4.1% uptick, while the ADX recorded a 1.8% uptick. Saudi Arabia’s Tasi recorded a 2.9% slump.

Volatility in GCC indices was slightly better compared to global markets, given the lower expected impact that tariffs are set to have on the region’s economies. Still, the MSCI GCC index saw a 1.2% decline on the back of a decline in large-cap energy and utilities stocks.

The DFM ended the month up 2.9% year-to-date (YTD). The financial sector rose the most, helped by gains in heavyweights Commercial Bank of Dubai and National General Ins. and bolstered by upticks in the communications index. The materials index saw the biggest drop at 22.7%, pulled down by an identical 22.7% share price drop from the National Cement Company.

Over in Abu Dhabi, the ADX ended the month up 1.2% YTD. The basic materials and financial sectors posted the largest gains, but declines in utilities and energy tempered the overall uptick. Multiply Group and Eshraq Investments were the biggest gainers, while Abu Dhabi National Takaful posted a 11.8% dip. The value of shares traded reached AED 25.9 bn, compared to AED 21.3 bn in March.

#2-Dubai still top destination for greenfield FDI in CCIs: Dubai maintained its position as the top global destination for greenfield foreign direct investment (FDI) in the cultural and creative industries (CCI) in 2024 for the third year in a row, according to the Dubai Media Office.

The emirate attracted AED 18.9 bn in FDI capital inflows across 971 CCI projects, creating 23.5k jobs. Dubai’s flexible policies and freezone reforms, allowing expansion beyond zones with DET permits, supported the increase.

The wider picture: Dubai was also the top destination for FDI greenfield projects last year, which saw AED 52.3 bn in capital inflows and an uptick of 11% y-o-y to 1.8k projects. Projects in Dubai represented 55% of the MENA region’s total.

HAPPENING TODAY-

#1- The US Federal Reserve is scheduled to meet today and tomorrow to decide on interest rates, following weeks of scrutiny from US President Donald Trump over the Fed’s monetary policy direction, Reuters reports.

Despite the US economy shrinking 0.3% in 1Q on the back of tariffs and low business sentiment, the Fed is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged at 4.25-4.5% following a positive nonfarm payrolls report and repeated warnings against hasty rate decisions from Fed’s Chair Jerome Powell has emphasized the need for caution. Trump, on the other hand, has expressed his frustrations with the pace towards cutting rates, with speculation that he is looking into the possibilities of sacking Powell.

#2- The Capital Market Summit will take place today and tomorrow at Madinat Jumeriah in Dubai. The summit will address IPO growth, global economic forecasts, and digital assets’ role in financial markets. Speakers include UAE ministers and DFM Chairman Helal Saeed Al Marri, and sessions will analyze stock exchange dynamics, virtual assets, and growth capital strategies.

#3- The Airport Show, taking place alongside the Global Airport Leaders Forum, will start today and run until Thursday, 8 May at Dubai World Trade Center (DWTC). The events will bring together airport and aviation industry professionals to discuss the latest trends in airport infrastructure, emerging technologies, and solutions to industry challenges.

#4- Seatrade Maritime Logistics Middle East is also starting today and will run until Thursday, 8 May at DWTC. The event will bring together professionals in shipping, logistics, and supply chain management to discuss and debate industry challenges and the latest innovations.

#5- Gulf Information Security Expo & Conference (GISEC Global) is taking place today and runs until Thursday, 8 May at DWTC. Cybersecurity experts will meet to discuss industry challenges including new cyber threats, security technologies, and solutions for protecting businesses against cyberattacks. Over 750 cybersecurity brands will exhibit their solutions.

#6- The Abu Dhabi Department of Economic Development (ADDED) is leading a delegation of senior officials and business leaders to Japan from today until Friday, 9 May, according to the Abu Dhabi Media Office. The five-day visit aims to explore possibilities for more investment cooperation, and expand trade and industrial ties. A trade and economic partnership agreement between the two sides is expected to be finalized later this year.

The delegation: UAE government officials and Emirati private sector representatives will participate in several events in Tokyo and Osaka, including the Abu Dhabi Investment Forum (ADIF) and Abu Dhabi-Tokyo Business Forum. The delegation will be looking to deepen cooperation with Japan in clean energy, hydrogen, AI, life sciences, and next-generation technologies, the statement saod.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

Gaza campaign intensifies: Israel’s cabinet approved plans yesterday to control large parts of Gaza indefinitely and relocate Palestinians to “sterile zones” all across the strip, while taking over aid distribution. Israeli officials signalled the intensive plan will be implemented only if a ceasefire failed to materialize by the time US President Trump leaves the region after his anticipated gulf summit in mid-May.

Houthis are not backing down: Despite intensifying strikes by the US and allies, the militant group announced a “comprehensive” aerial blockade on Israel, promising to repeatedly target key airports and urging international airlines to cancel all flights to Israeli airports.

ALSO- OpenAI listened to widespread criticism and decided to halt plans to turn for-profit. The plan would have spun the ChatGPT maker into an independent entity from the nonprofit that currently holds a controlling stake, which raised concerns of subverting governance safeguards that are supposed to keep AI tech development in check.

AND- Trump is threatening tariffs (what else is new?) that could reach 100% on films madeoutside of the US, a move that could significantly hurt movie production in many regions, including the Middle East.

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OIL WATCH-

Wall Street analysts slashed their oil price forecasts in response to Opec+’s decision to accelerate production in June, with the group raising increments for the second month in a row to add 411k barrels per day (bbl / d) for June.

Goldman Sachs lowered Brent crude forecasts by USD 2 to USD 3 a barrel to average USD 60 a barrel for this year and USD 56 a barrel 2026, while pegging West Texas Intermediate at USD 56 a barrel in 2025 and USD 52 a barrel next year, Reuters reports. Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley pegs Brent prices to average USD 62.50 a barrel in 3Q and 4Q on the back of Opec’s latest announcement, with the surplus expected to rise by 400k bbl / d and hit 1.1 mn barrels in 2H of this year. Barclays dropped its Brent oil rate forecast by USD 4 a barrel to USD 66 for 2025 and by USD 2 to USD 60 for 2026, Reuters reports.

The rationale: “Our key conviction remains that high spare capacity and high recession risk skew the risks to oil prices to the downside, despite relatively tight spot fundamentals,” Goldman Sachs analysts said in a note seen by Bloomberg.

REMEMBER- Brent crude fell some 4.6% to USD 58 a barrel following the meeting, while West Texas Intermediate was near USD 56, plummeting some 3.8%.

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