{"id":115909,"date":"2026-06-19T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-06-19T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/menaplus\/?p=115909"},"modified":"2026-06-19T07:50:45","modified_gmt":"2026-06-19T07:50:45","slug":"saudi-arabia-oman-will-be-the-gccs-only-growing-economies-in-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/menaplus\/2026\/06\/19\/saudi-arabia-oman-will-be-the-gccs-only-growing-economies-in-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Saudi Arabia, Oman will be the GCC\u2019s only growing economies in 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"

Saudi Arabia and Oman will be the only two GCC economies to keep growing in 2026.<\/strong> The rest of the bloc is heading into a 2.4% contraction as the US-Iran war reshapes oil flows and trade, the <\/a>ICAEW<\/a> said in its Economic Update. That\u2019s a sharp downgrade from the 0.2% contraction it forecast three months ago, and a reversal of the 3.6% expansion the wider Middle East was tracking before the war. The region is now seen shrinking 4.1%.<\/p>\n

In Saudi Arabia, oil is taking the hit while the rest holds:<\/strong> The Kingdom posted 3% y-o-y<\/a>growth in 1Q 2026<\/a> \u2014 its slowest since 2Q 2024 \u2014 with oil being the primary drag, though strategic rerouting and the East-West pipeline cushioned the downturn. Food inflation has stayed contained, as CPI inched up 1.8% in May<\/a>, in contrast to pressure building in Kuwait, Oman, and Qatar. <\/p>\n

Oman, the other outlier:<\/strong> The IMF backed up ICAEW\u2019s forecast, saying in a statement<\/a> it expects Oman\u2019s economy will grow 3.7% this year before cooling to 3% in 2027. The Fund expects higher oil production to do the heavy lifting. Non-hydrocarbon growth is set to ease to 2.5% in 2026 as the conflict hits tourism and construction, then rebound to 3.2% in 2027. Fiscal and external positions are strengthening \u2014 after narrowing to 0.6% of GDP in 2025 on lower oil prices and higher capital spending, the fiscal surplus is projected to widen to 4.5% of GDP in 2026 and 4.2% in 2027. <\/p>\n

The oil shock, in numbers:<\/strong> GCC oil output faces its steepest decline in decades, down 14.5% this year on the shipping disruption, before a 23.5% rebound in 2027 off a depressed base. ICAEW sees Brent averaging USD 90 \/ bbl this year, easing over the medium term as the UAE's exit from Opec+ and a planned West-East pipeline set to double export capacity through Fujairah. Inbound tourist arrivals across the GCC are forecast to fall 30% as security concerns reshape booking and destination decisions.<\/p>\n

What's next:<\/strong> ICAEW pegs the recovery to the Strait reopening to normal transit, which it expects to come slowly. It sees GCC headline inflation at 2.6% y-o-y in 2026, easing to 2.1% in 2027 as supply-side pressures fade. The Fed is expected to hold rates until December, with regional central banks following the lead.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

GCC GDP growth rate is expected to shrink by 2.4% in 2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":115910,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2696],"tags":[2695,2538,2939],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-115909","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-gdp","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"905abcb5-00f6-44a1-bea8-36d77fcd026e","order":"4","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2024\/8\/1088.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"Outliers","related_issue":[115902],"teaser":"GCC 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