{"id":115323,"date":"2026-05-22T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-05-22T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/menaplus\/?p=115323"},"modified":"2026-05-22T07:55:34","modified_gmt":"2026-05-22T07:55:34","slug":"the-first-question-for-iraqs-new-prime-minister-isnt-whether-he-can-reform-iraq-its-whether-he-can-make-payroll","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/menaplus\/2026\/05\/22\/the-first-question-for-iraqs-new-prime-minister-isnt-whether-he-can-reform-iraq-its-whether-he-can-make-payroll\/","title":{"rendered":"The first question for Iraq\u2019s new prime minister isn\u2019t whether he can reform Iraq \u2014 it\u2019s whether he can make payroll"},"content":{"rendered":"

Iraq finally has a new government \u2014 and it faces a fiscal crisis with no easy exit.<\/strong> Prime Minister Ali Al Zaidi\u2019s consensus government was sworn in on 14 May, a political breakthrough after nearly six months of deadlock. The new cabinet will need to immediately take on an economic crisis that threatens its survival, with the Strait of Hormuz still shut and oil exports sharply reduced. That has the state treasury drawing down its reserves, and it faces the prospect of missing public-sector payroll within months.<\/p>\n

There\u2019s no domestic route out of the hole, and If the strait stays closed, the endgame is a <\/strong>bailout, likely from the IMF. <\/strong>But taking money from the IMF comes with conditions \u2014 including demands to cut the public wage bill that a quarter of the country lives on, making it untouchable by every one of Al Zaidi\u2019s predecessors.<\/p>\n

The optimism that greeted Al Zaidi was grounded in something real.<\/strong> He\u2019s 40 \u2014 Iraq\u2019s youngest PM ever \u2014 with business interests spanning banking, logistics, and retail, and no deep ties to the factional blocs that have paralyzed Baghdad for a decade. Standout assets in his portfolio include Dijlah TV<\/a> and Al-Janoob Islamic Bank<\/a>, which he chaired until 2019. He\u2019s also behind<\/a> conglomerates including Al-Watania Holding (involved in agriculture and food wholesale, among other sectors) and Al Oways Group, which helps the government execute its ration-card food subsidy program.<\/p>\n

BACKGROUND- Al Zaidi emerged as a consensus alternative to Nouri Al Maliki<\/strong>, Iraq\u2019s former prime minister and a dominant figure in post-2003 Shia politics, after US objections ended his bid. Al Zaidi was not a fixture in Iraq\u2019s most important political movement, the Coordination Framework (CF), until the Shia-dominated group catapulted him into the country\u2019s premiership. <\/p>\n

\n

Up against the world<\/p>\n

Al Zaidi ended up taking office with an incomplete cabinet <\/strong>despite early expectations that he was heading for a smooth Parliamentary process. Absent from cabinet are ministers for critical security posts including defense and interior. <\/p>\n

The new PM has inherited an <\/strong>economy pushed to the brink <\/strong>by a combination of the Iran-US-Israel war in the Gulf, successive oil crises, and decades of paralysis on structural reforms. His government will need to grapple with the disappearance of oil revenues thanks to the closure of Hormuz; sky-high unemployment, especially among youth; a liquidity crisis in the banking industry; and a massively bloated public sector weighing down the country\u2019s budget and, with it, the state\u2019s ability to spend and invest on anything else. <\/p>\n

The war has also severed Iraq\u2019s main source of revenue streams: <\/strong>Iraq is painfully dependent on hydrocarbon revenues, which account for about half of the country\u2019s GDP and 90% of its revenue. With Hormuz shut down, Iraq\u2019s oil exports are now at 600k bbl \/d, down from around 3.3 mn bbl \/d before the conflict. Crude production fell nearly 61%. <\/p>\n

The math is stark: <\/strong>\u201cThey need about USD 84 a barrel just to balance their budget,\u201d economics professor and Iraq expert Frank Gunter<\/a> tells EnterpriseAM. The war-fuelled rise in the price of oil isn\u2019t enough to compensate for the drop in crude volumes. <\/p>\n

Al Zaidi will also face the challenge of keeping Iraq\u2019s most important geopolitical <\/strong>partners \u2014 Iran and the US \u2014 happy. <\/strong>\u201cThe US will use its financial, diplomatic and security leverage to press for tighter controls on Iran-backed groups, while Iran will seek to preserve the influence of its Iraqi allies across the [Hashd al-Sha'abi] PMF, parliament and patronage networks,\u201d Connor Coleman, senior analyst the Economist Intelligence Unit, tells EnterpriseAM. <\/p>\n

That may give him limited room to maneuver: <\/strong>\u201cAlthough Mr. Zaidi has pledged to rein in Iran-backed groups, he will struggle to meaningfully dismantle their entrenched position. He will probably pursue limited but visible steps to avoid punitive US measures like excluding overtly sanctioned or militia-linked figures from sensitive posts, tightening banking oversight and reaffirming the state\u2019s monopoly over arms \u2014 while avoiding direct confrontation,\u201d Coleman adds. <\/p>\n

\n

A bloated public service<\/p>\n

Iraq\u2019s bloated public sector is a boat anchor for any PM looking to drive reforms: <\/strong>\u201cYou have 4 mn government workers for a country of 34 mn people, which is the largest public sector bill in the world,\u201d independent MENA economist Hamzeh Al Gaaod tells EnterpriseAM. \u201cYou also have to take into consideration the military, the PMF, and various factions, [are] all funded through the Defense Ministry budget,\u201d he adds. <\/p>\n

SOUND SMART- <\/strong>The PMF is a quasi-state militia group that includes dozens of political organizations under its umbrella, many of which have strong ties to Iran. <\/p>\n

And there\u2019s a real risk the state treasury may not be able to make payroll, <\/strong>experts tell us, in direct contrast to Governor of Central Bank of Iraq (CBI) Governor Ali Al Alaq\u2019s recent assurances to the public. \u201cZaidi's government will struggle to meet public sector payroll in the coming months\u2026 This could be a huge financial disaster for Iraq and could lead to great domestic unrest,\u201d Hamzeh Hadad, Iraq fellow at the Center for a New American Security, tells us. \u201cIraq is going to literally draw down on its reserves and sell local assets<\/strong> until it gets to a stage where it can no longer finance its massive wage bill,\u201d Al Gaood says. <\/p>\n

Look for cabinet to delay spending on investment as it plays for time<\/strong>, Gunter says. \u201cIt's considered political suicide to touch salaries or pensions, so the only thing that gets crushed is the non-oil investment. Now, I'd hate to see that happen right now because Iraq [has been] involved in this incredible effort to diversify its economy,\u201d Gunter says, pointing to massive logistics projects<\/strong> including Al Faw Grand Port and new rail networks. <\/p>\n

Al Zaidi is also going to have to reckon with a banking system that\u2019s under significant stress. <\/strong>Despite boasting healthy reserves (around USD 73 bn, excluding gold or USD 97 bn with it), the banking system was stretched thin by liquidity crises driven by low oil prices in 2014 and 2020. \u201cRafidain and Rasheed, the two largest state-owned banks and the two largest banks in Iraq, are bankrupt<\/strong>. They have a negative net worth. We've known this, and the World Bank has known this, now for almost 20 years. So, there's your first problem,\u201d Gunter says. <\/p>\n

How it goes down: <\/strong>\u201cWhen the government of Iraq tries to finance its needs, it is not doing so through international borrowing \u2014 international debt is actually down \u2014 but through selling bonds and borrowing money domestically. Rafidain, Rashid, the smaller state-owned banks, and the many very small private banks, are buying this government debt and then immediately turning around and reselling it to the Central Bank of Iraq,\u201d Gunter tells us.<\/p>\n

The result: <\/strong>\u201cThe assets of the Central Bank of Iraq are gradually replacing very liquid USD assets with very illiquid IQD government debt. This is not a healthy thing,\u201d Gunter adds. As has been the case in Egypt through successive currency devaluations, banks that load up on government paper rarely make an effort to lend to the private sector, \u201cbecause lending to the government is the safest thing you're going to find for a risk-free investment,\u201d Gunter notes. <\/p>\n

\n

Political paralysis = no reforms<\/p>\n

Iraq has done little in recent years to drive the type of reforms that put the domestic <\/strong>private sector in the driver\u2019s seat <\/strong>\u2014 let alone attract foreign direct investment. \u201cThere is zero regulatory landscape. It is impossible to diversify away from oil because there is no legal framework that supports the private sector unless through corruption,\u201d Al Gaood tells us. \u201cLook at wheat,\u201d he says, pointing out that wheat growers haven\u2019t been paid a promised subsidy for a year. <\/p>\n

Gunter agrees. <\/strong>\u201cFinance is not the most serious problem the private sector faces in Iraq,\u201d Gunter tells us. \u201cIn my opinion, the most serious problem is regulatory hostility... The progress is so slow. You could read the 2005 economic development plan published by the Iraqi government right after the constitution was approved, and the analysis of their problems is almost exactly the same as in the current plan,\u201d he adds. Iraq is ranked last for friendliness to the private sector among 16 upper-middle income countries ranked in the World Bank\u2019s most recent Business Ready survey.<\/p>\n

\n

Al Zaidi has a narrow window<\/p>\n

Iraq is coming off five years of relative stability that had allowed Al Zaidi\u2019s predecessor to <\/strong>make some progress.<\/strong> \u201cFor what Iraq has experienced in the past \u2014 war with ISIS, invasion by the US, the Gulf War, Iran-Iraq war \u2014 this has been the most stable it has been. And before this regional war with neighbouring Iran, Iraq had half a decade of relative stability,\u201d Haddad tells us. <\/p>\n

\u201cI think everyone was very cynical that no progress would be made against corruption,\u201d<\/strong> Gunter notes. \u201cThe World Bank does an annual evaluation called the Worldwide Governance Indicators, and last year Iraq had the biggest improvement of any country in the world. It's still not good, but it went from desperately bad to much better. I don't think anyone expected that there would be so much progress against corruption,\u201d he adds.<\/p>\n

There was also \u201csome progress toward helping private businesses.<\/strong> Towards the end of the last prime ministership, the one-stop shop established by the Ministry of Trade actually did allow businesses to become more efficient with business registration,\u201d Gunter says.<\/p>\n

The war risks ending that momentum:<\/strong> \u201cYou need more than just five years of stability to prove yourself to investors, especially since the previous four decades have been very difficult,\u201d Haddad says. <\/p>\n

\n

What now<\/p>\n

Would Iraq knock the IMF door? <\/strong>If the Hormuz disruptions continue, Iraq needs access to foreign liquidity, not domestic. IMF is one option, but that \u201csimply won't work because that requires complete control of the country as we see in Egypt. Sisi has complete sovereignty over the Egyptian economy. Iraq does not, quite simply,\u201d Al Gaood tells us. <\/p>\n

Iraq signed up for a USD 5.3 bn assistance program in July 2016<\/strong>, adding to a 2015 emergency facility, during the Daesh war and oil crash the time. <\/p>\n

The IMF could be too costly for Iraq\u2019s political elite. <\/strong>\u201cThe IMF is going to have conditions, and those conditions are going to be both at the macro level \u2014 that the deficit has to be reduced \u2014 and at the micro level\u2014that the government of Iraq has to revise its regulatory system and its commercial code to make it more friendly to the private sector. Politically, it would be seen as a defeat by the government of Iraq to negotiate a new agreement, to have the IMF flying into Baghdad and saying: You will do this and that,\u201d Gunter says.<\/p>\n

Is there a compromise? <\/strong>A stabilization program, rather than sweeping reform, could also be an option, Coleman tells us. <\/p>\n

Ultimately, if Hormuz remains shut, Gunter thinks the government would fold: <\/strong>\u201cI don't think this new government is immediately going to approach the IMF, but if the strait stays closed, eventually they're going to have to,\u201d Gunter argues. That\u2019s when things will get tricky: Washington to apply pressure for reforms, while Tehran would push factions aligned with it to resist.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

If he can\u2019t pay civil servants, Ali Al Zaidi may need a bailout \u2014 and it\u2019s hard to see who that comes from if not the 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