{"id":115006,"date":"2026-05-11T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-05-11T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/menaplus\/?p=115006"},"modified":"2026-05-11T05:08:22","modified_gmt":"2026-05-11T05:08:22","slug":"aramcos-net-income-posts-25-y-o-y-growth-in-1q-despite-hormuz-disruptions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/menaplus\/2026\/05\/11\/aramcos-net-income-posts-25-y-o-y-growth-in-1q-despite-hormuz-disruptions\/","title":{"rendered":"Aramco\u2019s net income posts 25% y-o-y growth in 1Q despite Hormuz disruptions"},"content":{"rendered":"

Aramco\u2019s 1Q earnings are the latest thing that makes us think our thesis is correct: We\u2019re <\/strong>heading into a golden age for MENA+ infrastructure<\/strong> that we think will be marked by massive spend to \u201charden all the things\u201d while building in redundancies to redundancies. We also have some IPO news for you this fine morning \u2014 and we\u2019re nowhere near as bullish as some on Saudi\u2019s debt market getting an uplift from passive flows.<\/p>\n

UP FIRST- Aramco\u2019s East-West pipeline did what it was built for.<\/strong> The state oil giant\u2019s 1Q net income climbed 25% y-o-y to USD 32.5 bn as the bypass routed more than 7 mn bbl \/ d around Hormuz \u2014 5 mn for export, 2 mn into domestic refineries \u2014 and stronger global crude and refining margins offset the export drag. The pipeline \u201chas proven itself to be a critical supply artery, helping to mitigate the impact of a global energy shock and providing relief to customers affected by shipping constraints,\u201d CEO Amin Nasser said in the earnings statement (pdf)<\/a>. <\/p>\n

Aramco isn\u2019t pulling back on the divvy<\/strong>, staying on course at USD 21.9 bn for the quarter (and USD 87.6 bn for the full year). <\/p>\n

Nasser paired the results with a warning.<\/strong> He told Bloomberg<\/a> some 1 bn barrels of supply have already been lost from global markets in the past two months, and that the market normalizes \u201conly in 2027\u201d if shipping stays curtailed more than a few weeks. <\/p>\n

Watch this space: <\/strong>Aramco\u2019s earnings call is today. We\u2019ll be listening to see if there\u2019s color worth reporting back in Wednesday\u2019s issue. <\/p>\n

\n

\n

From The Dept. of Talking One\u2019s Book: Saudi bonds are due some USD 10 bn in passive <\/strong>inflows next year<\/strong>, Tadawul boss Mohammed Alrumaih told Bloomberg<\/a>. The trigger: SAR-denominated sovereign sukuk are set to join JPMorgan\u2019s Emerging Markets Government Bonds Index and Bloomberg\u2019s EM Local Currency Government Index from 29 January 2027. Eight Saudi sovereign sukuk totaling nearly USD 69 bn already meet the inclusion criteria. The sukuk will ultimately account for 2.5% of EMGBI. For context: foreign investors hold just 8% of local government bond issuances today, with only USD 3 bn traded OTC in 1Q.<\/p>\n

Our take: Active fund managers aren\u2019t going to suddenly pile into KSA. <\/strong>The equity-market experience in Saudi has been that index inclusion brings the passive money but does not necessarily pull active foreign capital in behind it. Tadawul remains dominated by domestic retail and domestic institutions, with active foreign participation thinner than the FTSE and MSCI inclusion stories suggested it would be. There\u2019s no obvious reason to think the bond version of the trade plays out differently. The USD 10 bn will come \u2014 it\u2019ll just be exactly the size of the index allocation, no more.<\/p>\n

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\n

Saudi delivery app Ninja is lining up advisors for a USD 1 bn Tadawul IPO<\/strong> in late 2026 or early 2027, Bloomberg reports<\/a>, citing sources it says are in the know. The company has tapped Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, Riyad Capital, and UBS to advise, though a private funding round is still on the table as a fallback. Ninja has been exploring IPO options since March<\/a> \u2014 executives met London investors around then as part of early soundings \u2014 with Tadawul preferred over overseas exchanges like the NYSE.<\/p>\n

Tadawul has held up through the geopolitical noise<\/strong>, making it the steadier exit for deals that need to clear in the next 18 months. The Saudi IPO pipeline keeps moving while broader Gulf listings slow: Dar Al Balad<\/a> broke the post-war drought at USD 55 mn, and Mutlaq Al Ghowairi Contracting and Arabian Dyar<\/a> are still racing late-June CMA expiries.<\/p>\n

Speaking of Dar Al Balad\u2026 <\/strong>Retail investors have until 14 May to get orders in as the company offers 30% of its shares at SAR 9.75 apiece, the top of the range. The institutional book<\/a> cleared at a final size of SAR 205 mn (USD 55 mn), valuing the company at SAR 682 mn (USD 182 mn). That\u2019s smaller than the Ninja figure, sure, but the symbolic weight is bigger \u2014 this is the first IPO out the gate since the war broke regional capital markets in February.<\/p>\n

MEANWHILE- Egypt\u2019s Al Ahly Sabbour is hitting the brakes on its planned EGX debut<\/strong> until the war resolves. A public listing has been in the pipeline since 2017<\/a> \u2014 the developer is split 60% Sabbour family, 40% National Bank of Egypt. It said last year<\/a> it was in the final stages of selecting an IPO advisor by June 2025. <\/p>\n

\n

\n

The World Bank greenlit USD 1 bn in concessional financing for Egypt<\/strong> under the second phase of its Growth Development Policy Financing program \u2014 USD 800 mn from the bank, USD 200 mn as a UK credit guarantee \u2014 bumped from a planned USD 500 mn. The increase came \u201cgiven the uncertainty in the region and the shock facing Egypt,\u201d Country Director Stephane Guimbert told our Egypt desk. <\/p>\n

Sound smart: <\/strong>Unlike project lending, DPF flows straight into the state budget once agreed reforms are taken care of. This tranche covers governance of state-owned enterprises, domestic debt market efficiency, fair competition rules, and welfare reforms. <\/p>\n

\n

\n

Global commodities giant Trafigura is going upstream in <\/strong>Egypt aluminum<\/strong>.<\/strong> The commodities trader signed a term sheet<\/a> to take a minority stake in a new project company with Metallurgical Industries Holding and Egyptalum, funding a USD 750-900 mn doubling of the Naga Hammadi complex<\/a> to 600k tpa via a 300k tpa primary smelter and a 150k tpa anode plant. Trafigura comes in across the stack: minority equity, debt provider, long-term offtake, and alumina-feedstock supplier \u2014 the full-spectrum trader play. <\/p>\n

Why it matters: <\/strong>Egypt currently imports all its alumina, so the agreement locks in 25-year supply at a moment when the International Aluminium Institute projects 40% demand growth by 2030<\/a>, with EVs alone accounting for 63% of the increase. Our friends at EFG Hermes were sole financial advisor. <\/p>\n

Bahrain\u2019s aluminum champion also has eyes on Egypt.<\/strong> Back in September, MIH and Egyptalum signed a non-binding MoU with Aluminium Bahrain (Alba) to study a USD 3 bn alumina refinery<\/a> with a target capacity of around 2 mn tpa. The fate of the project remains unclear in view of both Bahrain\u2019s financial distress and the ongoing war in the Gulf. <\/p>\n

Also worth knowing this morning- <\/p>\n

Aldar Properties<\/strong> sits inside a record year for hybrid bonds, with the Abu Dhabi developer having printed two hybrid issuances<\/a> so far in 2026. Hybrids \u2014 instruments rating agencies count partly as debt and partly as equity, letting issuers raise capital without spiking leverage ratios \u2014 have sold a record USD 65 bn globally YTD, with spreads at all-time lows of 58 bps in March, per Bloomberg data<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Cairo-based Beltone Venture Capital<\/strong> and Citadel International Holdings<\/strong> cashed out of Egyptian last-mile logistics player Bosta<\/strong> at a 75% IRR \u2014 buyer and valuation undisclosed, per the Beltone release (pdf)<\/a>. Bosta is preparing a USD 170 mn EGX listing<\/a> later this year, so the open question is whether the undisclosed buyer is positioning ahead of the float or transacting a clean pre-IPO secondary.<\/p>\n

The National Bank of Egypt<\/strong> bought a 20% stake in Scatec<\/strong>\u2018s USD 600 mn Obelisk solar-plus-storage project in Nagaa Hammadi, joining Norfund and EDF Power Solutions at the operating-company level at 20% each, per the Scatec statement<\/a>. For NBE, the swap from debt provider to equity owner in the renewables stack is the move worth watching. Matouk Bassiouny & Hennawy<\/a> advised.<\/p>\n

\n

Market Snapshot<\/p>\n

Tadawul<\/strong> 0.76% \u2022 ADX<\/strong> -0.37% \u2022 DFM<\/strong> -0.50% \u2022 EGX30<\/strong> 1.91%<\/p>\n

Brent USD 105.06 \/ bbl \u2022 Gold USD 4,529 \/ oz \u2022 USD \/ SAR 3.75 \u2022 USD \/ EGP 52.50<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Higher oil prices outweighed any losses in export 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