{"id":114655,"date":"2026-04-29T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-04-29T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/menaplus\/?p=114655"},"modified":"2026-04-29T06:02:03","modified_gmt":"2026-04-29T06:02:03","slug":"mena-ma-were-down-74-and-bond-issuances-off-12-in-1q-as-spreads-widened-on-gulf-war","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/menaplus\/2026\/04\/29\/mena-ma-were-down-74-and-bond-issuances-off-12-in-1q-as-spreads-widened-on-gulf-war\/","title":{"rendered":"MENA M&A were down 74% and bond issuances off 12% in 1Q as spreads widened on Gulf war"},"content":{"rendered":"

Pulse check: MENA capital markets ran out of road in March <\/strong>\u2014 shocking given the war and all, we know. Hell, so much has happened that it\u2019s easy to forget that the quarter includes not just the war (and the run-up to it) but also the seasonal impact of Ramadan. <\/p>\n

M&A activity collapsed 74% y-o-y in 1Q to USD 18.8 bn<\/strong> while bond issuance fell 12% to USD 48.1 bn \u2014 and in both markets, nine of every ten meaningful transactions closed in January, our review of the data suggests. The pattern is identical across equity and debt: Front-loaded activity through Ramadan, then a sharp deceleration and an effective shutdown by mid-March as the war on Iran pushed spreads wider and investors tapped the brakes amid rising uncertainty.<\/p>\n

On the M&A side<\/strong>, <\/a>LSEG data<\/a> shows inbound activity at a 10-year low of USD 4.6 bn (-90%) and outbound at a two-year low of USD 11.5 bn (-55%). The headline transactions all closer early: Adia\u2019s<\/strong><\/a>USD 4 bn exit<\/a> from its 18.4% stake in Pension Insurance Corporation, ePointZero\u2019s<\/strong><\/a>USD 2.3 bn purchase<\/a> of Traverse Midstream, and Aluminium Bahrain\u2019s<\/strong><\/a>USD 2.2 bn acquisition<\/a> of Aluminium Dunkerque. Goldman Sachs<\/strong> topped the <\/a>league tables<\/a> on three deals worth a combined USD 34.8 bn, including PIF\/Savvy\u2019s <\/a>USD 6 bn buy of Shanghai Moonton<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The debt market told a very similar story.<\/strong> Saudi Arabia carried 58% of regional issuance volume with USD 32.54 bn \u2014 including a USD 11.42 bn four-tranche January sale and Aramco\u2019s<\/strong> USD 3.95 bn raise \u2014 but the GCC effectively shut down by mid-March as spreads widened 20-30 bps and made fresh issuance uneconomic. Burjeel Holdings<\/strong><\/a>paused its USD 1.5 bn debut Islamic bond<\/a> in the most concrete signal of the freeze \u2014 CEO Shamsheer Vayalil\u2019s remarks that \u201cspreads have changed\u201d is the entire 1Q debt story in three words. <\/p>\n

Sukuk fell harder than conventional paper<\/strong>, the data shows, dropping 17% y-o-y to USD 14.6 bn \u2014 just 30% of total proceeds, the lowest share in three years<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The structural drivers, though, remain intact.<\/strong> Tim Ingrassia, who leads M&A globally for Goldman Sachs, sees global pure M&A<\/a> hitting USD 3.8 tn this year \u2014 surpassing both 2021 and 2025 \u2014 driven by what he calls the \u201ctyranny of terminal value\u201d: AI is calling into question long-term business models, and investors are bidding on year-six-to-infinity worth, not year-one. PE distributions globally sit at a 16-year low, making exits a priority for GPs. Moreover, regional sovereigns and corporates with maturing debt don\u2019t have the luxury of staying away from the markets indefinitely.<\/p>\n

What the 1Q numbers really capture is timing \u2014 not some enduring or structural change <\/strong>to fundamentals.<\/strong> Pipelines are loaded and 2Q shows that markets are coming back to life, albeit cautiously: Emirates NBD\u2019s<\/strong><\/a>USD 750 mn AT1 test<\/a>, XRG\u2019s<\/strong><\/a>29 US natgas deals under review<\/a>, and Egypt\u2019s<\/strong><\/a>USD 1 bn sovereign tap on the LSE<\/a> are early signs that the back half of the year will likely be \u201cokay\u201d at least. January\u2019s pace looks more like a baseline than a peak \u2014 provided the ceasefire in the Gulf stays in place, helping spreads tighten.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Signs of life at the start of 2Q suggest the back half of the year could look more like January than the lull we saw in February and March<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":114656,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2635],"tags":[2847,2647,2538,2805,2634],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-114655","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-the-scorecard","tag-debt-capital-markets","tag-debt-watch","tag-enterpriseam","tag-ma-watch","tag-the-scorecard","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"93f71056-96ce-4f24-a4b8-6a15eb987733","order":"7","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2026\/4\/1401.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"After 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