{"id":114645,"date":"2026-04-29T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-04-29T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/menaplus\/?p=114645"},"modified":"2026-04-29T06:02:01","modified_gmt":"2026-04-29T06:02:01","slug":"opecs-center-of-gravity-shifts-to-saudi-arabia-as-uae-exits-group","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/menaplus\/2026\/04\/29\/opecs-center-of-gravity-shifts-to-saudi-arabia-as-uae-exits-group\/","title":{"rendered":"Opec\u2019s center of gravity shifts to Saudi Arabia as UAE exits group"},"content":{"rendered":"

The UAE\u2019s exit from Opec and Opec+ leaves Saudi Arabia as the cartel\u2019s <\/strong>undisputed anchor<\/strong> \u2014 the only producer with the spare capacity to move markets \u2014 at a time when regional disruptions are already rattling supply chains and pricing.<\/p>\n

It may have been an abrupt exit, but the policy split between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi over <\/strong>production strategy has been growing<\/strong> in lock-step with their political ostracization. \u201cThe outcome has long been in the making,\u201d Harry Tchilinguirian, a global oil markets strategist and former head of research at Onyx Group, tells EnterpriseAM. <\/p>\n

The UAE\u2019s departure is a body blow to the cartel:<\/strong> The UAE has long been one of the bloc\u2019s heavyweights alongside Saudi Arabia, with meaningful spare capacity \u2014 the key lever Opec uses to move markets \u2014 making its departure structurally different from past defections. \u201cThe UAE\u2019s exit is very significant as it\u2019s a top-tier producer with high spare capacity and strong compliance with prior quotas,\u201d Rabobank Energy Strategist Florence Schmit tells EnterpriseAM.<\/p>\n

KEY CONTEXT- <\/strong>The UAE has seethed for years that it has been rock-steady about not exceeding its production quotas when Iraq and Opec+ member Russia routinely lied about their own adherence. Meanwhile, political ties between Abu Dhabi and Riyadh had gone sour long before Iran started launching drones and rockets at the Gulf in response to attacks by the US and Israel.<\/p>\n

Mechanically, the exit removes 3-4 mn barrels daily of the swing capacity <\/strong>that allows breathing room and gives Opec the ability to respond when Hormuz closes or pipelines rupture, Wolfgang Lehmacher, former head of supply chain and transport industries at the World Economic Forum, tells EnterpriseAM. Opec\u2019s ability to smooth out supply imbalances without the UAE in the mix is significantly undermined, Carnegie\u2019s Sergey Vakulenko adds. <\/p>\n

\u201cMost participants lack excess capacity and need pooled coordination<\/strong> as protection against volatility they cannot absorb individually,\u201d Lehmacher notes. <\/p>\n

The Saudi position now:<\/strong> With the UAE heading to the exit as of Friday, 1 May, Saudi Arabia stands as the market\u2019s sole swing producer, raising questions about how sustainable that role is without internal alignment, Rystad Energy\u2019s Jorge Leon tells Reuters<\/a>. <\/p>\n

\n

Pulling back the curtain<\/p>\n

The keyword for the UAE: Flexibility.<\/strong> \u201cThe decision reflects a policy-driven evolution in the UAE\u2019s approach, enhancing flexibility to respond to market dynamics while continuing to contribute to stability in a measured and responsible manner,\u201d the Emirati government said<\/a>. <\/p>\n

The UAE has been planning to ramp up production by as much as 30%, which doesn\u2019t fit <\/strong>neatly in Opec\u2019s quota system<\/strong>, Vakulenko told Reuters. Even the group\u2019s shift toward capacity-based quotas \u2014 designed<\/a> to better align targets with real production \u2014 has failed to bridge the gap<\/a> between the UAE\u2019s expanding capacity<\/a> and the limits imposed by the system. <\/p>\n

SOUND SMART- <\/strong>Opec is effectively managing three different versions of supply \u2014 self-reported output, secondary data, and official targets. \u201cBy exiting Opec, the UAE could increase production beyond its current quota \u2026 potentially achieving a capacity closer to 4.8 mn barrels per day,\u201d MENA economist Hamzeh Al Gaaod says in a note (pdf)<\/a> shared with EnterpriseAM. The UAE also has around \u201c1.85 mn barrels daily of stranded throughput capacity from USD 150 bn in built infrastructure, Lehmacher adds. <\/p>\n

The move was entirely the UAE\u2019s and the country didn\u2019t consult other members<\/strong> before pulling the trigger, Energy Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei tells Reuters<\/a>, framing the rupture as the result of a review of current and future production policies. \u201cThe UAE\u2019s exit from OPEC would mark a decisive shift toward an independent, state-driven oil strategy,\u201d Al Gaaod says. This allows the country to leverage its position as a supplier of some of the world\u2019s lowest-cost barrels. <\/p>\n

What it\u2019s (officially) not about:<\/strong> \u201cThis has nothing to do with any of our brothers and friends within the group\u2026 We have the highest respect for the Saudis for leading Opec,\u201d Al Mazrouei also said. The UAE chose now to make the announcement to avoid a severe impact on oil prices and on Opec cartel members, Al Mazrouei added, citing the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the shortages it\u2019s leading to in the market. <\/p>\n

\n

A well-timed exit?<\/p>\n

The market is already distorted: <\/strong>\u201cNow is probably the least damaging time to announce it \u2014 oil prices are high, \u2060and there are genuine shortages because of Hormuz closure,\u201d Vakulenko says, noting that even \u201cafter Hormuz reopens, there will be elevated demand as countries will be replenishing reserves that were drawn down since February, \u2060so prices will stay high.\u201d <\/p>\n

Many analysts and market watchers remain \u201cperplexed\u201d<\/strong> considering \u201cthe timing of this decision, in the context of the ongoing disruptions,\u201d Tchilinguirian tells us. <\/p>\n

The \u201cimmediate\u201d impact of the UAE\u2019s exit is likely to be muted<\/strong>, Al Mazrouei says. Analysts broadly agree, with Capital Economics Chief Climate and Commodities Economist David Oxley saying in a note that \u201cthe prospect of the UAE pumping more oil is somewhat moot at present given the near-complete cessation in flows through Hormuz.\u201d Plus, markets are still pricing in the closure of Hormuz and will need to absorb that \u201cbefore they can fully price the UAE leaving Opec,\u201d Rabobank\u2019s Schmit tells us.<\/p>\n

\n

What this means for the market<\/p>\n

Outside Opec, the UAE gains the freedom to increase output<\/strong> \u2014 and the incentive to do so \u2014 which could reshape supply dynamics once the current disruption cycle fades. For the UAE, the move is \u201cnot only for the good of its flagship Murban futures contract, but also for its longer-term economic development, using oil revenues to finance its longer-term [economic diversification],\u201d Tchilinguirian says.<\/p>\n

A structurally weaker Opec points to a potentially more volatile oil market once current <\/strong>disruptions ease<\/strong>, as the group\u2019s ability to manage supply diminishes, Leon says. <\/p>\n

Market response:<\/strong> \u201cWhen both transit infrastructure and governance protocols fail, operators shift from spot exposure to long-term contracted capacity with built-in resilience premiums,\u201d Lehmacher adds. <\/p>\n

The upshot: <\/strong>\u201cThe main market impact would be a significant reduction in Opec\u2019s influence over oil prices and coordination of output,\u201d Al Gaaod says.<\/p>\n

\n

The end of Opec?<\/p>\n

Contagion risk?<\/strong> \u201cIf other producers begin prioritizing market share over quota discipline, Opec\u2019s ability to manage orderly markets through coordinated supply adjustments may increasingly be called into question,\u201d head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank Ole Hansen said in a research note shared with EnterpriseAM. If discipline erodes too far, the group\u2019s capacity to shape the market shifts from enforcement to mere signaling.\u201cThis could be the thin end of the wedge if it triggers further disintegration of the group,\u201d Capital Economics\u2019 Oxley adds.<\/p>\n

The great system rewrite:<\/strong> \u201cWhile the UAE could potentially rejoin OPEC if market conditions stabilize, such a departure would signal more than a temporary adjustment. It would represent a fundamental transformation in both energy strategy and geopolitical alignment, with profound implications for the structure and stability of global oil markets,\u201d Al Gaaod adds. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The exit is being framed as the UAE prioritizing its output 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