{"id":114520,"date":"2026-04-24T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-04-24T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/menaplus\/?p=114520"},"modified":"2026-04-24T06:39:22","modified_gmt":"2026-04-24T06:39:22","slug":"china-absorbs-displaced-aluminum-as-gulf-outage-deepens","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/menaplus\/2026\/04\/24\/china-absorbs-displaced-aluminum-as-gulf-outage-deepens\/","title":{"rendered":"China absorbs displaced aluminum as Gulf outage deepens"},"content":{"rendered":"

Alumina cargoes that would normally feed Gulf smelters <\/strong>are being diverted<\/a><\/strong> to China<\/strong> as regional players are unable to take delivery thanks to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The supply-side shock is compounded by the damage<\/a> that several production lines have taken as a result of Iranian airstrikes in the war. <\/p>\n

Refresher:<\/strong> The Gulf typically accounts for 9% of global aluminum output, but production fell roughly 6% m-o-m in March<\/a> and remains suppressed. Qatar\u2019s Qatalum has been operating at roughly 60% capacity since mid-March<\/a>, while Bahrain\u2019s Alba has dropped closer to 30%, from 81% before the war. <\/p>\n

China can absorb the raw material, but it can\u2019t fix the output shortage.<\/strong> \u201cChina\u2019s domestic refineries are already running an excess \u2014 we\u2019re talking 95-100 mn tonnes of alumina,\u201d Andy Farida, senior metals analyst at Fastmarkets, tells EnterpriseAM. Even as more refinery capacity comes online in China \u2014 with previously delayed projects there starting to ramp up \u2014 that higher capacity, which Farida estimates at 4-5 mn tonnes, smelters ultimately face a 45 mn tonne output cap in China. <\/p>\n

Raising output caps would be a significant policy shift for China that risks putting it in <\/strong>the line of fire for anti-dumping and protectionist measures in other markets<\/strong>, Farida notes. \u201cPart of the reason for the 45 mn cap is due to their strong desire to have better control of the market,\u201d he said, in addition to balancing the environmental impact of the industry as Beijing looks to hit net zero targets by 2060. <\/p>\n

In other words:<\/strong> More alumina in China doesn\u2019t mean more aluminum for the rest of the world.<\/p>\n

The road to recovery for GCC players is long and complicated:<\/strong> Neither Qatalum nor Alba have their own sources of alumina (the crucial feedstock for producing metal aluminum), and typically rely on imported feedstock, Farida notes. These companies \u201cnow have to source from neighboring partners\u201d transported by truck through Oman, which is keeping their production lines running for now but \u201cis not feasible in the long run.\u201d <\/p>\n

Restarting production lines is a six- to twelve-month process<\/strong> \u2014 and that\u2019s assuming the ceasefire holds and no further damage is inflicted, Farida says.<\/p>\n

Beyond the logistics hurdles, energy is also a roadblock for Qatalum<\/strong>, as QatarEnergy\u2019s suspension of gas production threw another spanner in the works. \u201cRebuilding that infrastructure will take years,\u201d Farida notes. <\/p>\n

\u201cThe supply shock is already here. The risk now is that prices become too high \u2014 and <\/strong>that\u2019s when demand starts to pull back,\u201d<\/strong> Farida said. Prices are hovering around their highest point since the war broke out at USD 3.6k per tonne, with some forecasts suggesting they could breach the USD 4k mark. <\/p>\n

Enter\u2026 Russia?<\/strong> With few alternatives, buyers are starting to look at options that would have been off the table not too long ago. Russia is emerging as the fastest \u2014 and in many cases the only \u2014 way to plug the gap. But it\u2019s not exactly a comfortable shift for many, even though it\u2019s one of the few sources where volumes are immediately available, Farida says. <\/p>\n

That leaves the market stuck between limited supply and difficult trade-offs.<\/strong> Market rumors suggest there is enough high-quality Russian materials to \u201cflood the market,\u201d which could actually end up being good news for the GCC. \u201cIt would give the GCC smelters time to repair and get back on their feet, but it\u2019s [an unpopular] solution,\u201d Farida says.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The longer this split holds \u2014 raw material in one place, metal in another \u2014 the harder it becomes to fix<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":114521,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2721],"tags":[2564,2803,2538,2631,2642,2565,2832,2720,2562],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-114520","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-the-corridor","tag-bahrain","tag-china","tag-enterpriseam","tag-gcc","tag-manufacturing","tag-qatar","tag-supply-chains","tag-the-corridor","tag-uae","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"b9ff4ab9-142a-4572-ad61-45eb917a7beb","order":"4","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2026\/4\/1056.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"Chokehold","related_issue":[114513],"teaser":"The 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