{"id":114461,"date":"2026-04-22T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-04-22T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/menaplus\/?p=114461"},"modified":"2026-04-22T07:06:35","modified_gmt":"2026-04-22T07:06:35","slug":"the-ipo-hangover-heres-why-you-shouldnt-expect-mena-stocks-to-post-big-day-one-pops-even-if-the-window-to-raise-capital-reopens-this-fall","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/menaplus\/2026\/04\/22\/the-ipo-hangover-heres-why-you-shouldnt-expect-mena-stocks-to-post-big-day-one-pops-even-if-the-window-to-raise-capital-reopens-this-fall\/","title":{"rendered":"The (IPO) hangover: Here\u2019s why you shouldn\u2019t expect MENA+ stocks to post big day-one pops even if the window to raise capital reopens this fall"},"content":{"rendered":"

Don\u2019t expect a ceasefire to bring back the double-digit IPO pop: <\/strong>The US-Iran ceasefire announced earlier this month may have shaved off regional markets\u2019 immediate risk premiums, but analysts tell EnterpriseAM that it won\u2019t bring back the IPO euphoria we saw over the past three years. The easy market was already recalibrating before the war, now issuers face a market that\u2019s not quite open yet, where realistic pricing is the only way in.<\/p>\n

DATA POINT- <\/strong>Only four IPOs have made it to market YTD<\/a> across the region, down from 12 in the same period last year. These listings \u2014 one each in Saudi Arabia (Saleh Abdulaziz Al Rashed & Sons), Bahrain (Silah Gulf), Kuwait (Trolley), and Egypt (Gourmet) \u2014 raised a combined USD 296.6 mn, marking the region\u2019s weakest first quarter since 2018 as the Iran war effectively slammed shut the spring IPO window. (The lone sign of optimism right now: A small-ish offering from a Saudi IT firm, as we note in this morning\u2019s Markets + Deals column, below.)<\/p>\n

Markets have clawed back losses, but investors aren\u2019t looking at IPOs just yet. <\/strong>At the height of the freeze, the regional landscape was simply \u201cunsuitable for an IPO,\u201d Junaid Ansari, director of investment strategy and research at Kamco Invest in Kuwait, told EnterpriseAM. Markets were oversold, meaning any issuer hitting the tape would have had to accept a massive haircut on valuation. While a broad-based rally across the GCC post-ceasefire made the market \u201cattractive for new IPOs\u201d again, Ansari warns this isn't a full reset. <\/p>\n

Riding out the geopolitical overhang:<\/strong> \u201cWe expect this year to underperform last year\u2019s IPO volume as well as proceeds,\u201d he says. Even with missiles and drones no longer flying, sentiment is still subject to \u201cchange overnight.\u201d Bankers are counseling would-be issuers to sit tight \u2014 at least until the end of the war looks a bit more solid. \u201cWe believe that 2H 2026 would see a revival in IPOs if there is a permanent ceasefire,\u201d Ansari says.<\/p>\n

Structural headwinds are still at play <\/p>\n

\u201cThe ceasefire is clearly a positive near-term catalyst for sentiment<\/strong>, but it does not, in isolation, signal a full reopening of the IPO market,\u201d Tahir Abbas, head of research at Ubhar Capital in Oman, tells EnterpriseAM. He expects a series of \u201cselective, opportunistic issuance windows\u201d as investors continue to hedge against lingering geopolitical risks. <\/p>\n

But are there deeper issues to face?<\/strong> Abbas argues that geopolitical jitters are just compounding the structural setbacks that markets had absorbed before the outbreak of the war \u201cdriven by tighter liquidity and valuation recalibration.\u201d While the ceasefire \u201chelps stabilize sentiment,\u201d it does not fully \u201creverse these structural headwinds.\u201d<\/p>\n

In simple terms: <\/strong>The regional IPO slowdown had started well before the first shot was <\/strong>fired <\/strong>in the Gulf. The market was already losing momentum with a number of 2025 listings struggling to hold onto their post-listing gains, Abbas previously told us, though the conflict did accelerate the freeze. The \u201cstrong euphoria\u201d that defined the earlier cycle faded, with several names to deliver meaningful secondary-market returns.<\/p>\n

Is it enough to bring foreign flows back?<\/p>\n

Regional investors are likely the only ones with the stomach for the current volatility.<\/strong> Domestic institutions and high-net-worth individuals remain the \u201cdominant driver\u201d of the market, Abbas notes. While foreign participation might tick up at the margin, a broad-based return of international investors depends on \u201cclearer visibility into the end of the war\u201d and a better understanding of global rates and growth, \u201cmaking 2026 still largely a regionally supported IPO market,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

The shape of the reopening looks different depending on where you sit:<\/strong> Saudi Arabia and Oman are better positioned thanks to strong domestic institutional demand and government-linked flows, Abbas told us ahead of the ceasefire. The UAE, by contrast, sits in the middle due \u2014 it has higher exposure to international sentiment, which makes execution harder to read. At the other end, Egypt (more macro stress) and Kuwait (shallow liquidity) are unlikely to see big listings soon. <\/p>\n

Yes, but\u2026 <\/strong>Market watchers took note of the successful disposal of a chunk of Egyptian fintech darling Valu in an accelerated book build last week \u2014 and Banque du Caire has yet to pull the plug on its hotly anticipated spring offering, we\u2019re told. <\/p>\n

\n

Execution risk remains<\/p>\n

Despite the rally, the market is \u201chighly selective,\u201d <\/strong>Abbas warns. Not many IPOs will come to market soon, and those that do could face real challenges marshalling demand if they price too aggressively. <\/p>\n

Watch out for a clustering effect:<\/strong> With a backlog of issuers waiting for the right moment, there\u2019s a real (if small) risk of too much supply hitting at once. Abbas expects advisors to attempt \u201cdisciplined deal sequencing\u201d to avoid taking more paper to market than investors have appetite for.<\/p>\n

But there\u2019s money out there for the right name \u2014 at the right price. <\/strong>\u201cDemand for good quality names at reasonable valuation is always strong in the region,\u201d Ansari says, though he notes that allocation dynamics between institutional and retail investors will determine how much supply the market can ultimately absorb.<\/p>\n

\n

What might investors like? <\/p>\n

Financials, healthcare, and utilities remain the most viable candidates<\/strong> in this \u201ccashflow visible\u201d environment, both Ansari and Abbas told us before the ceasefire. We think Saudi\u2019s Sudair Pharma and Nupco, the UAE\u2019s Tabreed, and Egypt\u2019s Banque du Caire as the primary bellwethers.<\/p>\n

On the flipside, cyclicals including consumer discretionary, logistics, and industrials face <\/strong>a steeper climb<\/strong> due to margin pressure. This pulls growth-driven stories like Dubizzle, Tabby, and Ninja, along with industrial heavyweights like Saudi Global Ports, into higher-risk territory where valuation discipline will be the deciding factor. <\/p>\n

Looking ahead:<\/strong> \u201cIf the situation in the region improves, we can expect to see higher allocation to cyclicals and growth stocks,\u201d Ansari told us.<\/p>\n

\n

What would-be issuers should be watching<\/p>\n

What does a win look like in a post-euphoria market?<\/strong> It\u2019s no longer about the 15-20% secondary market pop. Abbas argues that \u201csustainable performance and institutional participation are now more important indicators of market health than short-term euphoria.\u201d<\/p>\n

(Order) size matters:<\/strong> So what signals should potential issuers be looking at to decide if the market is coming back? It has less to do with facile signals like headline-grabbing pops in share price on the first day of trading (always a sign bankers left a bit too much on the table) and a lot more to do with whose buying and what appetite looks like. <\/p>\n

That\u2019s going to make a more disciplined marketing process event more important<\/strong>, Abbas suggests. Strong visibility on early demand through anchor or cornerstone investors will be key. Anemic orders that portend a weaker book early on will make companies more likely to delay going to market rather than risking a weak transaction or \u2014 worse \u2014 having to pull one after announcing. <\/p>\n

The investors to watch: <\/strong>Foreign institutional appetite and whether government-related entities are buying or sitting on the sidelines. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

While sentiment is stabilizing, the ceasefire does little to reverse the structural headwinds of tighter liquidity and a valuation recalibration<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":114462,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2608],"tags":[2586,2538,2629,2607],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-114461","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-the-lede","tag-capital-markets","tag-enterpriseam","tag-ipo-watch","tag-the-lede","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"950c9572-ba8c-4262-9901-acefff66a292","order":"2","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2018\/12\/4314.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"The 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