{"id":114258,"date":"2026-04-17T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-04-17T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/menaplus\/?p=114258"},"modified":"2026-04-17T07:05:14","modified_gmt":"2026-04-17T07:05:14","slug":"regional-debt-markets-edge-back-from-the-brink","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/menaplus\/2026\/04\/17\/regional-debt-markets-edge-back-from-the-brink\/","title":{"rendered":"Regional debt markets edge back from the brink"},"content":{"rendered":"

Are regional debt markets finally seeing a thaw?<\/strong> Issuers may be eyeing an exit from the pricing strike<\/a> as a 40-50 bps war premium that had crept into investment-grade spreads begins to unwind as the ceasefire shows signs of holding. <\/p>\n

Borrowing costs haven\u2019t fully retreated to pre-war levels<\/strong>, analysts tell EnterpriseAM, but the market has grown out of a defensive crouch into a cautious bid-only rally. <\/p>\n

The war premium is fading<\/p>\n

The headline news? Spreads are narrowing: <\/strong>\u201cWe\u2019ve tightened significantly. We\u2019re not back at pre-war levels yet, but we\u2019re pretty close on high-yield and investment-grade names,\u201d Zeina Rizk, partner and portfolio manager at Amwal Capital, tells EnterpriseAM. It\u2019s a sharp reversal from early April, when Rizk told us that market jitters had made it nearly impossible to build order books without offering \u201cmeaningful concessions.\u201d <\/p>\n

Today, sentiment has flipped. <\/strong>\u201cIt looks like there is appetite in the market and cash is being put to work,\u201d Rizk says.<\/p>\n

The market hasn\u2019t fully shaken off the risk:<\/strong> A 20-30 bps \u201cgeopolitical cushion\u201d remains, \u201cgiven the fragility of the situation and broader uncertainty in global rates,\u201d Sarah Alyasiri, financial strategist at CFI Financial Global \u2014 who accurately predicted that spreads would tighten quickly in a de-escalation scenario \u2014 told us.\u201d The key driver now is not just geopolitics, but also the rates backdrop,\u201d she said. Meanwhile, Rizk noted that it\u2019s too early to quantify the risk premium.<\/p>\n

The logic is circular:<\/strong> Higher oil prices, driven by the conflict\u2019s tail-end, could keep inflation sticky, forcing central banks to delay the very rate cuts that regional issuers have been banking on for 2026.<\/p>\n

\n

Call it a side door <\/p>\n

\u201cWe haven't seen issuers come to market in a normal roadshow,\u201d <\/strong>but sovereigns are aggressively tapping private placements, Rizk tells us. In the last 10 days alone, we\u2019ve seen a flurry of investment-grade activity in Abu Dhabi, Kuwait, and Qatar that Rizk noted were \u201cflat to the curve so they did not have to pay up,\u201d adding that Egypt was slightly below. <\/p>\n

Case in point:<\/strong> Abu Dhabi has now raised USD 4.5 bn through private debt placements<\/a>, with the latest USD 2 bn placement taking place this week, with a coupon of 4.6%, according to Financial Times<\/a>. The issuance was arranged by Goldman Sachs. <\/p>\n

\u201cPrimary markets need more stability <\/strong>\u2026 I don\u2019t expect a quick rebound in issuance,\u201d Bank Nizwa\u2019s Muhammad Ahsan says, adding that primary activity \u201cwill take some more time to revive.\u201d Ahsan and Rizk agreed that clarity and durability are key for primary debt markets to reopen. <\/p>\n

The waiting game <\/p>\n

Not everyone is rushing back to the trough. <\/strong>While sovereigns and energy giants can move now, Saudi gigaprojects, developers and more leveraged infrastructure firms are still in wait-and-see mode, Alyasiri says. She previously identified these sectors as the \u201cmost sensitive\u201d to pricing strikes due to their reliance on phased issuance. <\/p>\n

The good news? They have a buffer: <\/strong>Many of these entities \u2014 corporates, banks and real estate developers \u2014 front-loaded their 2026 needs during a massive USD 27 bn issuance spree in 4Q 2025 and early this year, Ahsan previously told us. \u201c[They] are not under immediate funding pressure and prefer to delay issuance rather than lock in higher costs, so the market is reopening but in a selective and gradual way,\u201d Alyasiri said. <\/p>\n

While they wait, Plan B remains local.<\/strong> As Ahsan previously noted, the local sukuk and bond markets remain a stable avenue for fundraising when international markets are scarce. Issuers also still have access to deep bank liquidity and a growing appetite for private credit from borrowers \u201cseeking more certainty in execution,\u201d according to Alyasiri.<\/p>\n

\n

The most dangerous trap right now is a lack of differentiation<\/p>\n

Current pricing doesn\u2019t distinguish between the strong and weak quasi-sovereign <\/strong>balance sheets<\/strong>, Alyasiri says. The market is currently operating on the assumption that \u201cimplicit government support\u201d is a blanket guarantee \u2014 an assumption she previously warned would be tested if global liquidity stayed tight. <\/p>\n

\u201cWe\u2019ve already seen how quickly sentiment can flip<\/strong>, a single stretch of positive news last week was enough to push markets from one-sided selling into aggressive bidding, with investors scrambling to put money to work again,\u201d Rizk told us earlier this month.<\/p>\n

A selective repricing is looming: <\/strong>\u201cWhile the ceasefire reduces immediate pressure, it does not fundamentally change the underlying risk dynamic, it just postpones it,\u201d Alyasiri said. For now, the region is enjoying a post-war honeymoon, but for the debt markets, the real price of money is still being decided. \u201cIf de-escalation holds, we could see relatively fast compression as investors re-engage with high-quality EM credit,\u201d she added. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u201cIt looks like there is appetite in the market and cash is being put to work\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":114259,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2681],"tags":[2571,2466,2647,2538,2563],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-114258","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-debt-watch","tag-bonds","tag-debt","tag-debt-watch","tag-enterpriseam","tag-saudi-arabia","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"d837a001-857d-491e-879c-1d4d33899689","order":"5","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2026\/4\/182.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"Thank 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